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2019年07月22日 13:28:52|来源:国际在线|编辑:豆瓣活动
Finance and economics财经商业The new head of the Federal Reserve新任联邦储备局长Dove ascendant鸽派主政Janet Yellen will stick to her predecessors expansionary policies詹尼特将会继续推行前任扩张性经济政策FOR most of the past few years, monetary policy has urged the economy on while dysfunctional fiscal policy has held it back.过去的几年货币政策促进了美国经济的发展而运行不正常的财政政策却阻止其发展。Barack Obamas decision to nominate Janet Yellen to succeed Ben Bernanke as the Feds chairman in February raises the odds that stimulative monetary policy will continue.巴拉克·奥巴马提名Janet Yellen 接过Ben Bernanke的衣钵于二月担任联邦储备局主席一职,这将加大继续推行刺激性的货币政策的优势。But disquiet about that stance is growing.然而人们对于这一立场的担忧不断增长。In addition to being the first woman to run the Fed, Ms Yellen is also the first acknowledged dove.她不仅是首位入主联邦储备局的女性,而且是著名的鸽派人物。Presidents once felt compelled to appoint monetary-policy hawks such as Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan to reassure markets that the Fed would not succumb to the political systems inflationary bias.总统为情况所迫曾任命鹰派强硬持货币政策的Paul Volcker和Alan Greenspan确保市场运行良好,避免联邦储备局遭受来自政治体系的通货膨胀趋势。In appointing Ms Yellen Mr Obama has implicitly acknowledged how much the world, and the Feds priorities, have changed.通过任命Ms Yellen,奥巴马含蓄地表明世界的转变,联邦储备局重心的转变。Since 2008 America, like many other countries, has struggled with slack demand and high unemployment.如许多其他国家一样,自2008年以来,美国一直为疲软的需求及较高的失业率所困扰。Meanwhile, energy prices excluded, inflation has persistently fallen short of the Feds 2% target.与此同时,排除能源价格的影响,通货膨胀率一直未能达到联邦储备局2%的目标。Ms Yellen is not alone in believing that unemployment is a bigger problem than inflation.并非Ms Yellen一人认为较之通货膨胀失业率居高不下是更为严重的问题,So do most of her colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee, through which the Fed sets interest rates.她很多在联邦公开市场政策委员会制定联邦利率的同事也这么认为。But she has felt that way longer and more strongly.但她比他们更早更强烈地意识到这一点。She pushed publicly last year to hold interest rates near zero for longer than the Fed then planned, to hasten the fall in unemployment, even if that caused inflation to rise briefly above 2%.去年她公开推进利率趋零以促进就业降低失业率,使这一货币政策比联邦计划的时间要长,即便这一行动使通胀率高于2%。She was the principal author of the Feds current statement of long-term goals and operating principles, which stresses the equal importance of its twin statutory goals of full employment and low inflation.她是此次联邦现行长远目标及管理原则的主要推行者,这一政策将促进就业和压低通胀率这两个法定目标置于同等重要的地位。As vice-chairman, Ms Yellen helped Mr Bernanke nudge the FOMC towards its commitments to keep its benchmark interest rate at zero at least until unemployment has dropped to 6.5% and to keep buying billion-worth of bonds a month with newly printed money until the labour market has improved substantially.过去作为联邦储备局副主席,Ms Yellen协助Mr Bernanke推进联邦公开市场政策委员会实践其承诺,保持基准利率为零的状态直至失业率至少降至6.5%,继续印刷新钱购买850亿美元的债券直至劳动力市场情况持续好转。These policies have not fuelled inflation, as hawks feared they might.这些政策并没有像鹰派预估的那样加速通胀。Indeed, Ms Yellen would probably welcome having to tighten due to inflationary pressure, because that would mean demand was buoyant.的确,要是通胀压力过大,Ms Yellen势必会实施紧缩的货币政策,因为这意味着市场需求旺盛。But hawks still worry that the Fed is distorting prices in financial markets, breeding excessive risk-taking and preventing investors in Treasury bonds from demanding fiscal discipline.然而鹰派依然担心联邦储备局打乱了金融市场的价格,导致过多的风险从而使投资者因为繁多的财政纪律放弃购买国库券。Such concerns are widesp among Republicans in the Senate.参议院的共和党人普遍担心这一趋势。Several voted against her nomination to be vice-chairman in 2010.2010年几个议员在提名她为联邦储备局副主席时投了反对票。She was not particularly modest about the role of monetary policy in the economy and I dont see any evidence that thats changed, one such Republican, Bob Corker ofTennessee, said this week.一位来自田纳西州的共和党议员Bob Corker本周称,对于货币政策在经济中所扮演的角色,Yellen似乎不是很审慎,并且我并没有看到她作出的改变。With the support of the Senates Democratic majority, Ms Yellen is almost certain to be confirmed.因为得到参议院大多数民主党议员的持,Ms Yellen在联邦储备局的地位已经确立。But with many Republicans opposed, she will probably get fewer than the 70 votes Mr Bernanke did for his second term in 2010, at the time the lowest on record for a Fed chairman.但由于许多共和党人反对,她的得票很可能会比Bernanke2010年连任时的70票更低,而这在当时创造了联邦储备局主席最低的得票率记录。Moreover, one of the seven seats on the Feds board is vacant and another five may come up for grabs in the coming year, given expirations and the tug of other opportunities.此外,联邦董事会7个席位尚有一个空缺,在下一年换届时,倘若还有其他有利机会将有5人竞争该席位。The weight of opinion within the institution could change markedly as a result.因此,联邦储备局内部观点很可能会带来巨大转变。Minutes of the Feds last meeting, in September, show that it is aly divided on QE.联邦储备局9月份的会议记录显示,人们对量化宽松的货币政策已有分歧。Many officials wanted to slow its pace.很多官员想要放缓量化宽松的步伐。But the view that the economy was not strong enough prevailed, and the Fed surprised the market by sticking to its current pace of bond-buying.然而经济状况并不允许紧缩货币政策的观点盛行,联邦继续推行现行券交易的步伐出乎市场的预测。Once in office, Ms Yellen is likely to pursue a gentle taper coupled with a firm commitment to keep interest rates at zero.一旦就任,Yellen很可能会追求趋缓温和的货币政策但是会坚持维持利率为零。If the economy falters—an all-too-real possibility givenAmericas budget mess—she may want to increase QE, but might struggle to persuade her colleagues.倘若经济衰退—美国混乱的经济预算负主要责任—她可能会提高量化宽松的程度,但她要费力地说她的同事们持她。The Feds strength, she said in accepting the nomination, is its capacity to vigorously debate diverse views, and then to unite.在接受任命的时候,她说联邦储备局的优势在于它能够让不同的观点相互辩论最后获得统一。Maintaining that trait may be her biggest challenge.而发扬这种优良传统或许是她面临的最大挑战。 /201310/260172Business商业报道Entrepreneurs in Japan日本的企业家Time to get started到了该开始的时间了Shinzo Abe is giving new hope to Japans unappreciated entrepreneurs安倍晋三给了日本不被看好的企业家们希望IT BEGINS from now, tweeted Takafumi Horie, the former boss of Livedoor, an internet firm, two months after emerging from prison this spring.信息技术时代从现在开始, 堀江贵文说道。Mr Horie is involved in no fewer than 30 new companies, including a space-tourism venture.堀江贵文是门户网站活力门的前总经理,前两个月刚从监狱中被释放。If any of them grow to be big, Mr Horie, who was convicted of fraud in 2011, may show that a fallen Japanese entrepreneur can make a comeback.堀江贵文涉足于不少于30家的新公司,包括一家太空旅行企业。如果这些公司中的任何一家发展起来了,堀江贵文,这个曾在2011年被告有罪的企业家,将明一个失败的日本企业家可以东山再起。The mood among Japans would-be business moguls is at its most buoyant since the dotcom bubble burst a decade or so ago.由于十几年前的互联网泡沫的破裂,日本那些想要成为商业精英的人正怀着十分沉重的心情。A higher stockmarket is boosting the chances of a successful initial public offering.股票市场正在提高它首次成功公开募股的机会。The prime minister, Shinzo Abe, is Japans first leader to treat entrepreneurs as something more than greedy hustlers.安倍晋三首相,是日本第一位处理这些如贪婪的骗子般的企业家们的问题。For the past few years Mr Horie, a brash self-publicist, has been exhibit A in the case for holding that view.在过去的几年里,堀江贵文,一个傲慢又自我的公关,在那起案件中率先出示据来阐明自己的观点。But now Mr Horie says he is being welcomed back into the business world.但是现在,堀江贵文说他回到企业界这件事倍受欢迎。Mr Abes three-part plan to revive the economy, known asAbenomics, is designed to help start-ups as well as big business.安倍晋三复苏经济的三步计划被称为安倍经济复苏计划,是用来帮助新兴小企业和已有的大企业的。First came monetary loosening from the Bank of Japan, and a fiscal stimulus.首先是日本中央的货币放松政策,紧接着加大财政开。The third part, a series of reforms to boost long-term growth rates, includes radical deregulation in newspecial economic zones sp across the country.第三部分是一系列的刺激长期增长率的改革,包括在经济特区放松管制。If this pledge is honoured, many new opportunities could emerge for entrepreneurs in industries ranging from medical care to agriculture.如果这个经济计划成功了,很多给企业家的新机会就会大量的涌来,横跨医疗务业和农业。The reforms also involve pressing the banks to stop demanding onerous personal guarantees when entrepreneurs seek loans for their businesses.这个改革同时施压给,让停止向企业家索要大量的个人担保当企业家们想要为他们的企业借贷时。Most of all, Mr Abe admits, Japan needs to become more accepting of initial failure.最重要的是,安倍晋三承认,日本需要去接受首次失败。As a second-time prime minister after a disastrous first term, he is himself a comeback kid.作为一个第一次以失败告终,第二次登上首相位置的领导人,安倍晋三自己就是一个东山再起的例子。He reportedly described for guests at his home this summer how the young Walt Disney ran his business into the ground five times before he at last succeeded.有报道称,他这个夏天邀请客人到自己家中,并向客人描述年轻的华特迪士尼在最终成功前是怎样经历了五次失败的。Digital types were delighted when he attended a meeting of the Japan Association of New Economy, chaired by Hiroshi Mikitani, the founder of Rakuten, an online-commerce giant.数字类型企业很乐观,当安倍晋三参加新经济联盟的一个会议时。此次会议由三木谷浩史主办。Mr Mikitani has been brought in to advise the government on its deregulation efforts.三木谷浩史,日本乐天公司的创始人,一位网上贸易伟人。三木谷浩史建议过日本政府实行货币放松政策。For now, Japans vital signs on entrepreneurship are dire.现在,日本企业家的状况不容乐观。The overall number of firms is shrinking, and the rate at which new companies are born as a proportion of existing ones is less than half that in America and Britain.公司的总数正在大量减少,新公司的诞生率比英美的一半还少。In 2012 the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, a survey by a group of universities, put Japan in joint last place out of 24 developed nations for levels of entrepreneurial activity.根据2012年的全球创业观察报告的一份调查显示,日本由于创业活动长期不景气的水平,被放到了24个发达国家之外。 Japans record on fostering new firms is worse even than continental Europes.日本的一份关于发展新兴企的报告结果甚至比欧洲大陆的还要糟糕。Just 6% of Japanese participants in the survey thought there were opportunities to start a business in their country, and only 9% believed they personally had the skills required.调查显示,只有6%的参与者认为在他们本国家日本创建新企业是有机会发展的,9%的人认为他们已经掌握了创建新企业所需要的技术。The equivalent figures for the French were 38% and 36%.相同的调查问题在法国的结果是38%和36%。Other Asians, in contrast, were bursting with optimism.相反地,在其他亚洲地区新兴企业的发展很乐观。That lack of ambition means venture-capital firms have few big payoffs to look forward to, with the result that there is a limited pool of cash available for those who do want to have a go at starting a business: a vicious circle that will be hard to break.抱负心的缺乏使得风险投资公司很难下定决心去投资,从而使得那些确实想要经营一家企业的企业家缺少现金持,这将会成为一个很难打破的恶性循环。Young Japanese firms attract around one-twentieth of the venture-capital money that start-ups in America pull in.新兴的日本公司会吸引二十分之一的新兴美国风投公司的资金投入。The outlook for creating new businesses could begin to improve if Mr Abe succeeds in leaning on the banks to stop demanding extensive debt guarantees.如果安倍晋三成功的让不再要求借贷企业家提供大量的借贷凭,创建新型公司的前景可能会有所发展。Now many would-be entrepreneurs, faced with the risk of losing their homes, give up before they start.现在,很多想要进入企业家行列的人由于会担有失去家的风险,所以他们在开始之前就放弃了。In the short term the reform may make capital a little scarcer as banks t cautiously.在短期内,此项改革会使得放出更少的资金投资,因为的每一步都会走的很慎重。But in the long run it could transform Japans attitude to entrepreneurship, says Yoshito Hori, the founder of GLOBIS, a business school.但是长期来看,这项改革将会改变日本人对企业家原有的态度,堀义人说道。堀义人,商业学校GLOBIS的创建人。The industry ministry is promising to provide generous funding with the aim of doubling Japans rate of business start-ups by 2020.工业部门保,他们会提供大量资金,让日本在2020年前实现新兴企业增长率变为两倍。To do that it will have to add another 100,000 start-ups to the current annual tally.为了实现这个目标,必须在当前的基础上,每年再增加100,000个的新兴企业才可以。However, its record on picking winners is not great:然而,挑选赢家的报告却不是很好:its bureaucrats famously tried to stop the young Sony importing transistor technology and Honda from moving into cars.官员们已经烦透了去阻止索尼进口三极管科技和本田公司转向汽车行业。So the risk is that it ends up backing many duds, draining the public coffers to little benefit.所以这样做的风险是,会对很多已有的企业不利,所得的利润也微乎其微。The mother-in-law factor岳母的因素There are other reasons to be optimistic.当然也存在着乐观原因。The success of the big firms born in Japans great period of post-war entrepreneurialism later discouraged graduates from joining newer ventures.大公司在日本战后鼎盛时期的成功诞生削弱了毕业生们加入这场商业冒险的想法。Experienced managers are seldom keen to leave large companies.有经验的管理者很少会离开大公司。Wives, mothers and mothers-in-law exert a strong influence on men not to join risky start-ups, says Yoshiaki Ishii, head of new-business policy at the industry ministry.妻子,妈妈,以及岳母给了男人们很大的影响,让他们不要踏入有风险的新兴企业,石井说道。石井,工业部门新兴企业的管理者。But the perceived balance of risk is shifting.但是这种感知到的风险正在转移。Many of the giants are struggling.很多的领袖搜在努力着。The cost of starting a firm is plunging thanks to cloud computing and other innovations.创建一家新企业的花费得益于云计算和其他一些创新。Mr Horie says he is financing his new ventures through crowdfunding networks such as Campfire.堀江贵文说,他正在通过群众募资网站为他的企业筹资,例如: 萤火网站。The government could help to remove plenty of other hurdles to entrepreneurship.政府可以帮助去除很多阻碍企业家精神的障碍。One difficulty for science and technology start-ups is that large Japanese firms have signed up exclusive rights for the bulk of university discoveries. 创业的科学技术难点之一就是日本的大公司会签约买下大量的大学研究成果。Small, disruptive firms are not usually able to access and develop them. And a widespnot invented here mindset stops established firms joining up with small ones to commercialise new ideas.这样子就会导致小公司无法很好的发展。一个广为流传的不要在这里起家的心态也使得公司不想要去和小公司合并。As a result many recent ventures—such as DeNA and GREE, two social-gaming operators—have been internet and software businesses that depend less on research, notes Daisuke Iwase, a founder of Lifenet, an online insurance firm.结果使得现在很多的企业—像DeNA和格力,两家社交类游戏经营公司—都经营着网络和软件这些不太依赖于调查的业务,一家网上保险公司救生网的创建人Daisuke Iwase阐述道。There is too much talent chasing after smartphone apps and social gaming, he says.继智能手机应用软件和社交类游戏之后,有太多类似的很棒的应用陆续出现,他说道。So, some experts have recommended forcing large firms either to develop the discoveries to which they have the rights, or else to pass them on.因此,一些专家建议,强制大公司继续买断大学研究成果,或者把研究成果转让。Japans entrepreneurs still feel vulnerable to sudden crackdowns, and fear they would be punished more harshly than big-business chiefs.日本的企业家们因为这样的制裁而身心疲惫,他们害怕自己会受到比这些大公司领导更为严厉的惩罚。Last year GREE unexpectedly found itself under investigation for possibly violating gambling laws.去年,格力公司意外地发现自己可能由于违反法律,而处于被监视状态。Its young, billionaire founder, Yoshikazu Tanaka, has since tried to ingratiate himself with the establishment:格力旗下年轻的亿万富翁田中良和试图让自己符合与公司制度:he now appears in a suit, not a T-shirt.现在,他在公司不穿体恤衫而改为西装了。In all, much has to change before Japan becomes a kinder place for those trying to create businesses.总而言之,在日本变得很适合创业者们生存之前,还有许多的改变需要去做。There is a risk that Abenomics fails and brings about quite a different sort of rupture in the corporate climate, says Jeffrey Char, an entrepreneur and investor.安倍经济复苏计划存在着失败的风险,这将会使得公司合作风气破裂,杰弗里查说道。杰弗里查是一位企业家,也是一位投资商。If the central banks radical monetary loosening is not followed by thorough deregulation and strong growth, the result could be a sovereign-debt crisis.如果中央的货币放松政策没有彻底的实施和强有的巩固的话,可能会导致严重的主权债务危机。In such a crisis many of Japans biggest firms could collapse, says Mr Char:在这样一种危机下,很多日本的大公司都将会瓦解,杰弗里查说道:that would leave people with no choice but to start their own businesses. Boosting entrepreneurship through reforms would certainly be less painful.这将会使人们没得选择,只能创建新公司。通过改革而刺激企业家精神明显是一个更好的选择。 /201309/255800

Finance and Economics;Spanish banks;The long kiss goodnight;财经;西班牙业;漫长的晚安吻别;A bank merger sheds fresh light on a sickly industry;合并为沉疴已久的西班牙业带来一丝曙光;It may be Spains most short-lived public company. Just a few months after its July debut on the Spanish stockmarket, Banca Cívica this week agreed to sell itself to CaixaBank, a larger rival, at an 11% discount to its market price. The “take-under” is a sharp reminder of Spains property woes.它可能是西班牙史上最短命的上市公司。就在本周,Banca Cívica同意以低于市价11%的折扣把自己出售给其强劲的竞争对手Caixa,此时距离它去年七月在在西班牙股票市场首次公开发行仅过去不过数月。Banca Cívica的“贱卖”让人们猛然想起了哀鸿遍野的西班牙地产市场。Banca Cívica listed in the first place to meet capital targets set by the then Spanish government. Now it is one of the first casualties of rules set by the new government to get banks to set aside provisions and capital worth 50 billion Euro(66 billion Dollar) to cover losses on dud property loans. Faced with a capital and provisioning shortfall of 2 billion Euro, Banca Cívica accepted an all-share deal that valued it at a third of its book value. The combined entity will become Spains largest bank by assets, with around 15% of the retail market.前任西班牙政府制定的资本充足率目标对业影响甚广,首当其冲的便是Banca Cívica。新届政府成立后,又要求业对不良房地产贷款计提价值500亿欧元(660亿美元)资本的坏账准备金。由于资本不足,Banca Cívica的坏账准备金面临着20亿欧元的缺口,只得接受换股收购,以账面价值三分之一的价格将自己出售。合并后的企业实体以资产来计将成为西班牙最大的,占据大约15%的零售市场The deal may not be good for Cívicas shareholders, but it is positive for the system as a whole that a stronger bank is using its excess capital to clean up a weaker one. As part of the deal, CaixaBank will write down 3.4 billion Euro of Banca Cívicas assets, 3 billion Euro of which relates to property loans and foreclosures—more than the amount Banca Cívica was officially supposed to set aside and a sign that the current provisioning targets might still be insufficient. CaixaBank can afford to take the hit. Its core capital will drop by 1.7 percentage points, yet it is still on track to meet the 9% core-capital mark demanded by European regulators by the summer.这笔交易或许不符合Banca Cívica股东们的利益,但对整个市场来说却是个积极的信号,因为一家强大的将用它多余的资本为另一家虚弱清理不良贷款。作为交易的一部分,Caixa会对Banca Cívica的资产减记34亿欧元,这当中有30亿欧元与房地产贷款以及抵押品停止赎回有关——超过了之前Banca Cívica官方估计的处理金额,这很可能预示着目前的坏账准备金目标仍过低。Caixa能够承受这一资产减值的打击,虽然它的核心资本充足率将因此下降1.7%,但仍满足今年夏天欧洲央行规定的9%的的目标。Capital elsewhere is scarce, however. Most other lenders lack CaixaBanks powerful balance-sheet: they are focused on meeting a March 31st deadline to present their plans to the Bank of Spain on how to meet the new provisioning requirements. And just like its predecessor, the government is trying to minimise the cost of bank rescues to the taxpayer and to the countrys public finances, now firmly back in the bond-market spotlight. “Unfortunately, the capacity to recognise losses is extremely limited because, as things stand, there is no capital, private or public, for a convincing recapitalisation,” worries Tano Santos of Columbia University.然而,对于其他而言,资本仍很是稀缺。许多都没有Caixa那样强劲的资产负债表:它们正专注于在3月31日大限前向西班牙央行提交一份方案,说明自己如何实现新的准备金要求。和前任政府的做法相同,现任政府试图将附加于纳税人和国家财政身上的的救助成本最小化。政府力图重返债券市场的做法使其备受关注。“不幸的是,西班牙确认资产损失的能力有限。目前看来,无论是私人资本还是政府资金都十分欠缺,这让资本重组显得不可信。”哥伦比亚大学的塔诺桑托斯担忧地说道。The government used money from an industry-backed deposit guarantee fund (FGD) to inject capital and guarantee risky assets during the sale of two nationalised banks, Banco CAM and Unnim. Three more nationalised lenders will soon be auctioned and will also need money to smooth the way. But the pot is now nearly empty. The FGD could ask for extraordinary contributions from banks or raise debt backed by future annual contributions. But bankers grumble that this is like trying to get a sick patient to cure himself.政府在出售CAM和Unnim这两家国有的过程中,动用了业发起成立的储蓄担保基金(FGD)来为它们注入资本,并且为风险资产提供担保。另外三家国有很快也会被拍卖,这也需要钱来铺路。但是储蓄担保基金现在已经用的快见底了。FGD有两条路可以走:或者要求各家提供额外的资金;又或者以各未来每年注资的形式作担保来发行债券。但家们纷纷抱怨,这种做法好是比让病人自己抢救自己。One source of concern is BFA Bankia, which listed the day before Banca Cívica last summer and faces a provisioning and capital shortfall of 5.1 billion Euro. After deducting provisions aly taken in 2011, asset sales and the recent swap of preference shares in its parent group, BFA, for Bankia shares, the shortfall is closer to 2.7 billion Euro. Speculation that it might merge with CaixaBank was quashed by the latters deal with Cívica, but rumours swirl about other mergers.BFA Bankia现在尤其令人担忧。这家在去年夏天仅比Banca Cívica早一天上市。它面临的准备金和资本短缺达到了51亿欧元。该在2011年通过资产出售和向母公司互换优先股的方式筹集了一部分准备金,但仍面临着27亿欧元的资金缺口。此前曾有传言Caixa将与BFA Bankia进行合并,尽管随后发生的CaixaBank 与Cívica的合并交易使得谣言不攻自破,但有关其并购的各种传闻依然甚嚣尘上。Bankia says it can make it on its own. The shortfall will be covered by a combination of profits, balance-sheet shrinkage and more asset sales and preference-share swaps. Rodrigo Rato, the chairman, downplayed the challenges in its 2011 results presentation. “Bankia doesnt represent a systemic problem,” he said. “Bankia is systemic, but it isnt a problem.”Bankia宣称它完全能自力更生地筹集到准备金,短缺的资金将由未来盈利、收缩资产负债表以及出售资产和优先股互换来弥补。Bankia的董事局主席罗德里格拉托在2011年的业绩发布会上轻描淡写地谈起面临的挑战。“Bankia不存在系统性问题”他说道。“Bankia的确是一家系统性,但它不是问题。”All of which leaves the new government in a similar bind to the old one. Forcing a rapid clean-up of the sector risks soaking up scarce public money. But leaving the banks to muddle their way through has costs, too. Although the European Central Banks three-year loan programme has eased funding pressures on Spanish banks, a credit crunch is under way. Listed Spanish banks shrank their loan books by 3.7% in 2011, according to estimates by Exane BNP Paribas, an investment firm which expects the trend to continue this year and next. That risks worsening the economic situation, and the losses that lenders face. Tightening the screws on provisions is an important step, but the government may yet need another reform plan.所有这一切使得新政府陷入了一个与其前任相似的困境中。对风险资产的快速清理会导致公众资金的严重短缺。然而,如果放任业稀里糊涂地进行自救,也有各种各样的成本。尽管欧洲央行的三年期贷款项目已经缓解了西班牙的资金压力,但是信贷紧缩已经不可避免。根据法国巴黎的的估计,在2011年,西班牙上市的贷款发放收缩了3.7%。这家投行还预计,贷款紧缩趋势在今明两年仍会持续。信贷紧缩风险会进一步恶化经济环境,加剧的损失。要求提高准备金对于改革来说是关键一步,但是西班牙政府可能到了需要一个新的改革计划的时候了。 /201306/242476

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