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治狐臭襄阳下沙哪家医院好襄阳市职业病防治医院孕前检测多少钱Oil and the world economy原油和世界经济The new Greece?又一个希腊?How to assess the risks of a 2012 oil shock如何评价2012石油危机的风险WITH the euro crisis in abeyance, high oil prices have become the latest source of worry for the world economy. “Oil is the new Greece” is a typical headline on a recent report by HS analysts. The fear is understandable. Oil markets are edgy; tensions with Iran are high. The price of Brent crude shot up by more than a barrel on March 1st, to 8, after an Iranian press report that explosions had destroyed a vital Saudi Arabian oil pipeline. It fell back after the Saudis denied the claim, but at 5, crude is still 16% costlier than at the start of the year.欧元危机悬而未决,高油价又令世界经济为之头痛。在汇丰分析师最近的报道中,头条便是“原油成为又一个希腊” ,这种担忧是可以理解的。国际原油市场变幻莫测,伊朗局势依然紧张。据一家伊朗媒体报道,一次爆炸损坏了沙特阿拉伯一条至关重要的石油管道。布伦特原油价格应声上扬,三月一号每桶价格暴涨到128美元,涨幅超过5美元。随后沙特当局否认了这一报道,价格出现一定回落,但依然高达125美元,原油价格较年初上涨16%。Assessing the dangers posed by dearer oil means answering four questions: What is driving up the oil price? How high could it go? What is the likely economic impact of rises so far? And what damage could plausible future increases do?要评估随之而来的风险,就得回答以下四个问题:是什么在推高油价?油价会高到什么地步?到目前为止,价格上涨可能带来的经济影响是什么?未来似乎合理的价格增长会造成怎样的损害?The origins of higher prices matter. Supply shocks, for instance, do more damage to global growth than higher prices that are the consequence of stronger demand. One frequent explanation of the current rise is that central-bank largesse has sent oil prices higher. In recent months the world’s big central banks have all either injected liquidity, expanded quantitative easing (printing money to buy bonds) or promised to keep rates low for longer. This flood of cheap money, so the argument goes, has sent investors into hard assets, especially oil. But since markets are forward-looking, the announcement rather than the enactment of QE should move oil prices; indeed, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, disappointed markets last month by not signalling another round of QE (see Buttonwood). Moreover, if rising prices are being driven by speculators you should see a rise in oil inventories—exactly the opposite of what has happened.其中较高价格的起源关系重大。举例来说,供给冲击对全球增长的危害要远大于需求增加导致的价格上涨。一种常见的解释是,中央增加货币供给推动了价格上涨。最近的几个月里,世界各大央行都向市场注入了流动性,实行量化宽松政策(印更多的钞票购买债券)或者承诺现行的低利率将维持一段时间。这样一大批廉价货币让投资者涌入了硬资产领域,特别是石油,因此争论还在继续。但由于市场具有前瞻性,所以左右油价的应该是官方声明而不是量化宽松政策的实施。实际上,美联储主席本﹒伯南克并没有签署另一轮量化宽松政策(见《梧桐》),这一举动无疑挫败了市场信心。此外,如果价格被投机者操控,那么原油存货应该增加,而事实却恰好相反。Central banks may have affected oil indirectly, by raising global growth prospects, which in turn buoy expectations for oil demand. Circumstantial evidence supports this thesis. The recent rise in oil prices has coincided with greater optimism about the world economy: a euro-zone catastrophe and a hard landing in China both appear less likely and America’s recovery seems on stronger ground.中央可以通过上调全球经济增长预期间接地影响原油价格,转而提升原油需求的增长预期。有间接据撑这一论点。最近的油价上涨与对世界经济的过分乐观是一致的:欧元区的灾难和中国的硬着陆似乎都不太可能上演,美国经济复苏的后劲十足。But slightly rosier growth prospects are only part of the story. A more important driver of dearer oil has been disruptions in supply. All told, the oil market has probably lost more than 1m barrels a day (b/d) of supply in recent months. A variety of non-Iranian troubles, from a pipeline dispute with South Sudan to mechanical problems in the North Sea, have knocked some 700,000 b/d off supply. Another 500,000 b/d or so of Iranian oil is temporarily off the market thanks both to the effects of European sanctions and a payment dispute with China.但稍微乐观了一点的增长预期只是故事的一个部分,高油价一个更重要的推动因素是供给中断。总而言之,在最近几个月里,国际原油市场大概每天要减少一百万桶的原油供给。从南苏丹石油管道纠纷到北海机械故障,各种各样的非伊朗问题每天就会减少70万桶的原油供给量,另外50万桶左右临时的伊朗石油供给减少要归因于欧盟制裁和与中国的付纠纷。The cushion of spare supply is thin. Oil stocks in rich countries are at a five-year low. The extent of OPEC’s spare capacity is uncertain. Saudi Arabia is pumping some 10m b/d, a near-record high. And there is the threat of far bigger supply disruptions if Iran were ever to carry out its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 17m barrels of oil pass every day, some 20% of global supply. Even a temporary closure would imply a disruption to dwarf any previous oil shock. The 1973 Arab oil embargo, for instance, involved less than 5m b/d.备用原油的缓冲效果已经不太显著,其中富国的原油储备处于五年来的历史低位。欧佩克的剩余产能大小无法确定,而沙特阿拉伯正在创造历史新高——以每天1000万桶的速度生产原油。如果伊朗真的关闭霍尔木兹海峡——这里每天有1700万桶原油通过,大约占世界原油供给量的20%——那么将会出现更大的供给中断威胁。即使只是暂时关闭,所带来的负面影响也将超过以前任何一次原油冲击。例如,在1973年阿拉伯石油禁运中,每天的原油供给减少多达500万桶。Separating out these various factors is not easy, but Jeffrey Currie of Goldman Sachs reckons that the fundamentals of supply and demand have pushed oil prices to around 8 a barrel. He thinks the remaining increase is down to fears about Iran. If so, should relations with Iran improve, the oil price might go down by a few dollars, but stay close to 0.分离出这些不同的因素有一定难度,但高盛公司的杰弗里#8226;柯里估计,供给和需求的基本面已经推动油价达到每桶118美元左右,余下的增长源于对伊朗问题的担忧。按照他的说法,如果改善与伊朗的关系,石油价格可能下行几美元,但仍会接近120美元。Globally, the damage from price increases to date is likely to be modest. A rule of thumb is that a sustained 10% rise in the price of oil shaves around 0.2% off global growth in the first year, largely because dearer oil shifts income from oil consumers to producers, who tend to spend less. For now any impact is almost certainly outweighed by improvements elsewhere, particularly in the easing of the euro crisis. Despite dearer oil, the prospects for global growth are still better than they were at the beginning of the year.在全球范围内,价格上涨造成的伤害到目前为止可能还是适度的。有一条经验法则是油价每持续增长10%,全球经济增长率就会下跌0.2%,很大程度上是因为高油价将收入从石油消费者转向生产者,所以生产者往往损失更小。现在几乎可以肯定地说,其他方面的改善完全可以抵消任何冲击,尤其是解决欧元危机。尽管油价高涨,全球经济增长的前景依然好于年初。But the impact on growth and inflation in individual countries will differ. In America, a net importer which taxes fuel lightly, the standard rule is that a increase in oil prices (which corresponds to a 25-cent rise in the price of petrol) knocks around 0.2% off output in the first year and 0.5% in the second year. That would slow, but hardly fell, an economy that is widely expected to grow by more than 2% this year.但是对经济增长和通胀的影响在不同的国家是有所区别的。美国作为一个石油净进口国和燃油税负较轻的国家,一个标准的规则是:石油价格增长10美元(相当于汽油价格增长25美分),会降低第一年0.2%左右的产出,第二年则会下降约0.5%。普遍预期其今年的经济增长将超过2%,看来增长会减速,但不太可能下降。There are in any case several reasons why America may be more resilient to dearer oil than in recent years. The jump in petrol prices has been far smaller than in 2011 or 2008. Rising employment gives consumers more income with which to pay for fuel. And America’s economy is becoming ever less energy-intensive, and less dependent on imports. Oil consumption has fallen in the past two years, even as GDP has risen.在任何情况下,美国都可以比近年来更有效地抵御昂贵的石油。究其原因,可以有以下几点:汽油价格的涨幅远小于2011年或2008年;逐步上升的就业给予消费者更多收入,从而用它来付燃料花销;以及美国经济正在远离能源密集型,更少地依赖进口。在过去的两年里, GDP上涨的同时石油消费却在下降。Americans are driving less, and they are buying more fuel-efficient cars. Net oil imports are well below their 2005 peak, which means more of the money Americans spend on costlier oil stays within its borders. The development of copious amounts of natural gas means gas prices have plunged. That, coupled with an unusually mild winter, has kept bills for home heating unusually low. In January the share of consumers’ spending on energy products was the second-lowest in 50 years. These factors do not imply that America is impervious to spiking oil, but they do suggest the impact of price rises to date will be modest.美国人比以前少开车了,他们在购买油耗更低的汽车。净进口的石油远低于2005年的高峰时期,也就意味着美国人把更多的钱花在昂贵的石油上面并停留在美国境内。大规模发展天然气意味着天然气价格开始大幅下降。再加上异常温和的冬季,家庭供暖开销也异常之低。今年一月份,消费者的能源产品出份额在近50年中处于第二低位。虽然这些因素并不意味着美国能够独善其身,但它们确实表明了价格上涨的影响是有限的。Europe is more exposed. European countries, which tax oil more heavily than America, have typically seen a smaller impact on growth from changes in the oil price. But this time they may be relatively more affected, because most economies are aly stagnant or shrinking. Worse, Europe’s weakest peripheral economies are also some of the biggest net importers. Greece, for instance, is highly dependent on imported energy, of which 88% is oil. Even the price rises to date will worsen the euro-zone recession; a big jump could spawn a deep downturn and fracture the confidence of markets.欧洲更明显。欧洲国家的石油税负比美国更重,通常可以看出油价的增长变化对其造成较小的影响。但这次他们可能相对更容易受影响,因为大部分经济体已经停滞或萎缩。更糟的是,欧洲最弱的边缘经济体中也有一些位于最大的石油净进口国之列。举例来说,希腊是个高度依赖能源进口的国家,而其中88%是石油。目前的价格上涨将进一步加剧欧元区衰退,一个大的跳跃就可能造成深刻的经济倒退并摧毁市场信心.Britain is relatively insulated. Although it is a net oil importer, it has significant resources in the North Sea. Any losses to the consumer from dearer fuel are partially offset by gains in the oil and gas sector itself. But even in Britain the net effect of price increases to date could be more damaging than usual, particularly since they reduce the odds of sharply falling inflation. Lower inflation, and a rise in real incomes, are one reason British policymakers hoped to see the economy improve this year.英国相对安全。尽管英国是一个石油净进口国,但它在北海有明显的资源优势,消费者在昂贵的燃料上产生的任何损失都能被石油和天然气行业增加的收益部分抵消。即便如此,油价上涨对英国的影响也比以往更为不利, 特别是因为它们减少了通货膨胀急剧下降的可能性。低通货膨胀和增加的实际收入,是英国决策者所希望看到的今年经济改善的一个方面。Barrels, no laughs百不一贷In emerging economies the picture is even more disparate. Oil exporters, from Venezuela to the Middle East, are gaining; oil importers will see worsening trade balances. In 2008 and 2011, the main effect of dearer fuel in emerging economies was on inflation. That is less of a worry now, largely because food prices, which make up a much bigger part of most emerging economies’ consumption basket, are stable.新兴经济体之间的差异更大。从委内瑞拉到中东, 石油出口国都是贸易顺差,而石油进口国将会面临不断恶化的贸易平衡。2008年和2011年,燃料价格高昂是新兴经济体通货膨胀的主要原因。但如今不同了,占多数新型经济体消费组合很大比重的食品价格较为稳定。But some countries will face problems. In the short term, some of the hardest-hit emerging economies will be in eastern Europe. They will suffer not only from more expensive oil but also from the weakening of European export markets.但是有些国家将面临一些问题。在短期内,一些受冲击最大的新兴经济体将会出现在东欧。他们将忍受的不仅仅是愈加昂贵的石油价格,还有不断疲软的欧洲出口市场。India is also a concern. Fuel is a big component of its wholesale-price index, for example, so inflation will rise as higher oil prices are passed through to domestic fuel costs. To the extent they are not, the budget will be hit. India regulates—and heavily subsidises—the price of diesel and kerosene. According to Deutsche Bank, diesel prices have risen by only 31% since January , whereas the price of crude oil in rupees is up by 180%. The difference is a result of subsidies, frustrating India’s efforts to reduce its budget deficit.印度也被波及。燃料是其批发价格指数一个很大的组成部分,因此,高油价将通过国内燃料成本导致通货膨胀率上升。印度调控并大量补贴柴油和煤油价格,这一点反映在财政预算上。据德意志统计,从年1月开始柴油价格上涨了31%,而在卢比市场原油价格已增长了180%。所不同的是补贴政策的效果——挫败印度减少预算赤字的努力。So oil is not the new Greece. More expensive oil is, for now, doing little harm to global growth. But it is not helping Europe’s more fragile economies. And if the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, the resulting surge in oil prices will spell the end of the global recovery.所以石油不是又一个神话。高企的石油价格对全球经济增长的危害会少一些,但这并不能缓解欧洲愈加脆弱的经济。如果霍尔木兹海峡的正常运营受到威胁,油价上涨将会宣告全球复苏的结束。 /201307/247190襄阳中医男科医院治疗腹胀多少钱 Business商业报道Asian shipyards亚洲造船厂The deeper the better越深越好Korean and Singaporean yards have adapted well to Chinas challenge韩国、新加坡的造船业对来自中国的挑战应付自如PLENTY of behemoths are being welded into shape in South Koreas shipyards at the moment.目前,韩国造船厂里大量大型船只已成型。Clustered around the southern city of Busan, the big three yards—Samsung Heavy Industries, Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering, and Hyundai Heavy Industries—are churning out the worlds biggest container ships, 400 metres long; an oil barge whose length, at about 460 metres, or 1,462 feet, is almost half the height of Scafell Pike, Englands tallest mountain;聚集在南部釜山市的三大造船厂—三星重工集团、大宇造船和海洋工程有限公司以及现代重工集团—正大量建造世界最大的集装箱货船,其长达400米。油驳大约长460米或1462英尺,几乎是英国最高山斯科菲峰的一半高。and some of the largest oil rigs yet built.一些最大的石油钻塔还未建成。But size isnt everything.但是型号并非全部。Just as impressive, and more important commercially, are four ultra deepwater drill-ships coming off the line at Samsung Heavy Industries.同样惊人,并且在商业性方面更为重要的是由三星重工业生产的4大超级深海钻井船。Commissioned by a Danish shipping giant, Maersk, the first one has just been christened: Viking, appropriately enough.在丹麦轮船巨头Maersk的授权下,第一艘船命名为Viking再适合不过了。Described by a Maersk engineer as giant Black amp; Deckers, these ships are designed for work in the deepest of waters, such as in the Gulf of Mexico.正如Maersk的一位工程师所描述的巨大的黑色甲板,这些船是用来在海洋最深处工作,例如墨西哥湾。As inland and coastal wells run dry after decades of exploitation, oil firms are being forced farther out to sea, and ships like Viking, which will be used by Exxon Mobil, are designed to meet their requirements.随着几十年的不断开采,内陆以及沿海的油井已经快枯竭。石油公司不得不迈向海洋更深处。并且,像Viking这一批船,它们的制造就是为了满足埃克森美孚这样的顾客的需求。Viking can operate in 3,000 metres of water, and then drill down through another 12,000 metres of earth—more than the height of Mount Everest.Viking能在深入水下3000米工作,然后再向下挖12,000米—深度比珠穆朗玛峰还高。The centrepiece of the vessel is the derrick, which is over 60 metres high.船的中心是高达60余米的油井架吊杆,But the most advanced bits of kit are probably the six thruster engines.但是装置中最先进的部分要数6部推力器引擎。The engineers claim that they can keep the ship steady and drilling even in waves of up to 9 metres.工程师们说,这些引擎能够让Viking高达9米的巨浪中保持平稳并继续工作。Strong technical skills have proved to be the salvation of Korean shipyards.强有力的专门技能来自于韩国造船厂。Only a decade or so ago most analysts were assuming that Chinas heavily subsidised yards would soon take much if not all of South Koreas share of the world shipbuilding market, just as South Korean yards had wiped out much of Europes capacity a generation before.大约10年前,大多分析家设想,中国受极大补贴的造船厂,如果不能占据韩国在世界船只建造市场的全部份额,那么至少也得大部分,就如上一年代韩国造船行业一扫欧洲大部分国家造船业一样。But it has not worked out like that.但是中国不及韩国当年。It is true that China now gets more orders in terms of gross tonnage, but in the year to July 2013 South Korea produced 76.2% more than China by dollar value.的确,现在中国就总吨数而言,是接到更多订单,但是按美元来算总价值,到今年7月,韩国的生产值比中国多76.2%。The Koreans, and their Singaporean counterparts, are making money in a highly competitive market by focusing on complex vessels like Viking, often for the offshore market.韩国,以及和它相当的新加坡,正通过制造出像Viking这样的复杂型船只在竞争激烈的市场里获利,并且他们的专注点在海外市场。China has failed to break out of the basic bulk-carrier market, where ships may cost as little as 30m.中国没能突破制造仅值3000万美元的基本散装货船。As a result it is Chinas yards that are struggling, confined to a part of the market that is plagued by overcapacity, whereas Korean and Singaporean order books are almost full. Maersk reckons the market for offshore rigs and drill-ships is now worth 44 billion a year.结果就是,中国造船业不停地挣扎,被限制在了一个有产能过剩麻烦的市场之中。而韩国跟新加坡的订单,几乎全满。Sokje Lee, an analyst at J.P. Morgan in Seoul, explains that shipbuilding is nowadays a design and quality business rather than a labour-driven one,首尔J.P根的一位分析家Sokie李解释道,如今的造船讲求的是设计和质量,而不仅仅是靠劳力。and South Korean firms, once a lower-cost alternative to their European rivals, have spent heavily and wisely in becoming more technically sophisticated.韩国企业,相对于他们的欧洲对手而言,也曾是一个低耗备胎,但他们花费了大量人力物力变成今天的技术精密型。Each of the big Korean yards has thousands of in-house designers and engineers.每一家大型韩国造船厂都有成千上万的内部设计师和工程师。This has made them world leaders in the new generation of fuel-efficient, cheap-to-run eco ships.正是这一点使得他们成为新一代造船业的世界级领军人物,他们的船,能源高效,操作实惠。Chinas yards have focused instead on offering customers low prices and irresistible financing deals.而中国的造船业关注点在给消费者提供低价船以及难以抵抗的金融交易。Sometimes they demand as little as 10% of the cost on signing a contract, leaving the other 90% until delivery.有时,他们在签订协议时仅仅只需10%的费用,剩下的90%仍处于交付状态。Yet this ruthless competitiveness has not won them a decent share of the lucrative offshore market.但是这种极其可怕的竞争力并没有为他们在有利可图的海外市场赢得可观的份额。Here quality, efficiency and sticking to delivery dates are at a premium, and Chinese yards still score poorly on all counts.在现在市场中,质量,效率以及严格遵守交货时间处于最优先位置,而中国企业在这些方面仍然做得不够。A recent report from CLSA, a stockbroker, concludes that China is still far behind the Koreans in the market for offshore vessels.券投资机构CLSA最近的一份报告总结了,在海外造船市场,中国远远落后于韩国。Even worse, China will soon lose much of its advantage on price.更糟的是,中国很快会失去它的价格优势。CLSA estimates that labour costs in its yards are rising by 10-15% a year, while productivity remains low.CLSA估测,在该行业,中国的劳力费用每年上涨10%-15%,但是生产力仍持低。Singapores two main yards, Keppel and SembCorp Marine, have also invested heavily in quality and efficiency.同样,新加坡主要的两家造船企业,吉宝和胜科海事也在质量跟效率方面投入大量资金。They specialise more in deep-sea rigs than in drill-ships and carriers.相比钻井船和货船,他们更专长于深海钻机。Keppel, the bigger of the two, is building a record 20 such monsters this year; next year it will deliver the first of three giant, 600m jack-up rigs.吉宝的规模比胜科更大。今年吉宝预备制造20艘这样的巨型船,明年将交付三个中的第一个,即值6亿美元的自升式钻井。Time is money时间就是金钱The Singaporeans are also good at building things on time, which is vital in an industry where late delivery can cost the operators of rigs and drill-ships over 500,000 a day.另外,新加坡造船企业还拥有按时完成制造的有点,这对于拖延交货一天就得多花50万在钻机和钻井船操作上的企业来说,尤为重要。Over the past five years, rigs ordered from Keppel and SembCorp were, on average, delivered ahead of schedule, whereas Chinese yards delivered 50-250 days late, says IHS Petrodata, a research firm.一家研究公司HIS揭示,在过去的5年中,吉宝和胜科的钻机一般都是在规定时间前交付的,而中国企业,比规定时间晚50-250天。The only cloud on the horizon for the Koreans and Singaporeans might be fracking.韩国和新加坡目前的唯一问题可能是液压破裂法。The output of tight oil from onshore shale beds has soared in the past few years, especially in America, and could one day reduce the demand for expensive deep-sea rigs and vessels.沿海页岩层密致油的产量在过去的几年中飞增,尤其是在美国,这种油很有肯在某天就降低了昂贵深海钻机和钻井船的需求量。Indeed, Mr Lee even suggests that the offshore business might aly have peaked.诚然,李先生暗示,海外造船业可能达到了顶峰。But Keppel, for one, is not too worried.但是吉宝并不是很担心。The demand for oil has so far kept rising; and as long as the crude price is above 80 a barrel, the big oil firms will have the money and the incentive to keep developing deepwater fields, and thus to keep ordering its rigs.一来,油量的需求持续增长,只要每桶原油价格仍在80刀以上,大型的石油公司就有资金以及动力继续开发深海领域,因此,对钻机仍有需求。 /201311/266130Science and technology科学技术Solar physics太阳物理学Sun down落山的太阳Several lines of evidence suggest that the sun is about to go quiet据的一些方式表明太阳即将变平静spots of bother?太阳黑子的困扰?DURING the four centuries that it has been studied in detail, the sun has usually behaved in a regular manner.太阳已被详细研究了四百年,它通常以规则的方式反应。The number of spots on its surface has waxed and waned in cycles that last, on average, 11 years.太阳表面的黑子数在其一般延续11年的活动周期内增增减减。Such cycles begin with spots appearing in mid-solar latitudes and end with them near the equator.这样的周期活动以太阳黑子在其中纬度出现开始并随着黑子移动到赤道附近而终结。And the more spots there are, the more solar storms there are around.而且太阳黑子的数目越多,周围就会有越多的太阳风暴。Sometimes, though, the sun sulks and this solar cycle stops.然而,太阳有时也会生气,之后这种太阳活动周期就停止了。That has happened twice since records began:自从对这种太阳活动周期有记载以来,这种现象已经发生了两次了:during the so-called Maunder minimum of 1645 to 1715 and the Dalton minimum of 1790 to 1830.就是所称的1645年至1715年蒙德极小期和1790年至1830年道尔顿极小期期间。These coincided with periods when global temperatures were lower than average, though why is a matter of debate.这些现象与全球气温低于平均水平时相一致,虽然这是为什么争议的一个问题。An absence of sunspots also means an absence of solar flares and their more violent siblings, coronal mass ejections.缺少太阳黑子也意味着太阳耀斑以及它们更强烈的同胞-日冕物质抛射的不存在。Such outbursts disrupt radio and satellite communications, electricity grids and a variety of electronic equipment, so the pattern of solar activity is of more than academic interest.这种大爆发会干扰无线电和卫星通信,电网和各种电子设备,因此太阳活动方式超越了学术兴趣。A new solar minimum, then, would test theories about how the climate works and also make communications more reliable.然而,一个新的太阳极小期将会测试关于气候如何起作用的理论以及还将使得通信更加可靠。And many solar physicists think such a new minimum is on the cards.而且许多太阳物理学家认为这样一个新的太阳极小期很可能发生。A group of them, who all work for Americas National Solar Observatory, have just had a meeting in New Mexico, under the aegis of the American Astronomical Society, to announce their latest results.在美国天文学会的主持下,美国国家太阳天文台工作的一群太阳物理学家刚刚在新墨西哥州举行了一次会议来宣布他们的最新成果。Frank Hill and his team were the discoverers, 15 years ago, of an east-west jet stream in the sun.弗兰克·希尔和他的研究小组就是15年前太阳内东西高速气流的发现人员。They also worked out that the latitude of this wind is related to the sunspot cycle.他们还计算出这次太阳风的纬度和太阳黑子的活动周期相关。At the beginning of a cycle the jet stream is found, like sunspots, in mid-latitudes.在一个活动周期开始的时候,就可以找到高速气流,像中纬度地区的太阳黑子。As the cycle progresses, it follows the spots towards the equator.随着活动周期的进展,高速气流随着太阳黑子向太阳的赤道方向移动。Intriguingly, however, Dr Hills studies indicate that the jet stream of a new cycle starts to form years before the sunspot pattern.然而,让人感兴趣的事情是,希尔士的研究表明一个新太阳活动周期的高速气流在太阳黑子活动方式前开始形成。This time, that has not happened.这次,高速气流还未产生。History suggests a new cycle should begin in 2019.历史表明一个新太阳活动周期应该开始于2019年。If the sun were behaving itself, Dr Hills team would have seen signs of a new jet stream in 2008 or .假如太阳自我反应的话,希尔士研究人员在2008年或年早已观察到新高速气流的迹象了。They did not.但是他们没有看到这些情况。Nor are there indications of one even now.即使现在,也没有一个迹象出现。If a change in the jet stream really is a leading indicator of solar activity, then no new cycle is on the horizon.如果高速气流的变化真地是太阳活动最重要的指示物,那么新的太阳活动周期还未露端倪。The second study which suggests something odd is happening looked at the strengths of sunspots.表明奇怪的事情正在发生的第二项研究检查了太阳黑子的活力。Matthew Penn and William Livingston have analysed 13 years of data which indicate that, independently of the number of spots around, there has been a decrease in their strength.马修·佩恩威廉·利文斯敦已独立见解地分析了大致太阳黑子数的13年的数据表明这些黑子的活力已经下降了。Sunspots are caused by irruptions into its surface of the suns deeper magnetism.太阳黑子是由入侵活动进入太阳深层磁性表面造成的。These create local drops in temperature, which make the surface gas darker.这些入侵活动导致了局部气温下降,使得太阳表面气体颜色更深。Over the period which Dr Penn and Dr Livingston analysed, the average magnetic strength of the irruptions has declined.佩恩和利文斯顿士分析表明,入侵活动的平均磁场强度已有所下降。Below a certain threshold, they will not be strong enough to overcome the convective mixing of the gas at the surface, and spots will disappear altogether.低于一定的临界值的话,它们将不足以克表面气体的对流混合,因而太阳黑子将完全消失。If the present trend continues, that will happen in 2021.如果目前的趋势继续下去,那么2021年太阳黑子就会消失。The third measure of the suns decline is in its outer atmosphere, the corona.太阳衰落的标准就是其外层的气体日冕。At each solar maximum, the corona sloughs off the magnetic fingerprint of the previous cycle by pushing it to the poles.在每次太阳极大期,日冕通过把气体推向两极而使前一活动周期的磁性特征消退掉。According to Richard Altrock, the leader of another NSO team at the meeting, that does not appear to be happening in the present cycle.根据会议上美国国家太阳天文台的另一研究组的领导理查德·阿尔乔克所说,目前的太阳活动周期那种现象没有出现。It looks, then, as if a new, extended solar minimum is about to begin.然而,看上去好像一个新延续的太阳极小期将要开始。That is good news for operators of communications satellites.对通信卫星的经营者来说,这是好消息。And it is interesting news for those who worry about global warming.而且这对那些担心全球气温变暖的那些人来说是个令人有趣的新闻。If the Maunder and Dalton minima actually did affect the climate,如果蒙德和道尔顿极小期确实影响了气候,then a new one might counteract the effects of the extra greenhouse gases people are now pumping into the atmosphere—at least, until the solar cycle returns.那么新的太阳活动极小期可能抵消人们现在大量释放到空气中额外温室气体的影响-至少要到太阳活动周期恢复时。Whether the breathing space thus granted would be used wisely or squandered is another matter.无论是如此承认的呼吸空间会被明智地使用还是被大手大脚地挥霍掉将是另一回事。Do not expect that debate to be as placid as the spotless sun.不要指望辩论就像一尘不染的太阳那么宁静安详。 /201308/251230襄阳四医院看效果怎么样

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湖北省襄阳市第一人民医院是公立的Science and technology科学技术The military uses of space太空军事用途Spooks in orbit轨道间谍卫星The other space programme另类太空计划DESPITE its strong inheritance of military DNA,尽管美国航空航天局有着浓重的军事血统,NASA is a civilian agency,但它仍然是一间民用机构。set up that way in deliberate contrast to the military-run Soviet space programme.它的组建方式也刻意与苏联军事太空计划形成对比。In practice, the distinction is not always so clear-cut:但实际上,二者之间的界线通常并不那么分明:NASA has done plenty of work for the Pentagon.NASA也曾为五角大楼做过大量工作。But Americas armed forces maintain a separate space programme of their own,但美国军队却保持着自己独立的太空计划,largely out of the public eye.大多数不为公众所知。Although hard numbers are difficult to come by,尽管确切数字难以获得,it is thought that the military space budget has matched or exceeded NASAs every year since 1982.但据说自1982年以来,美国每年的军事空间计划预算一直等同或超过美国航空航天局的预算。All the signs are that it is roaring ahead.所有迹象表明,这个数字正在飙升。The air forces public space budget will increase by nearly 10% next year,明年,美国空军的公共空间预算将增加近10%,to .7 billion, with much of it going on a new generation of rockets.达到87亿美元,其中大部分资金将用于新一代火箭的研制。Bruce Carlson, director of the National Reconnaissance Office, the secretive outfit that runs Americas spy satellites,美国国家军事侦察局是运作美国间谍卫星的秘密机构,announced in 2010 that his agency was embarking on “the most aggressive launch schedule undertaken in the last 25 years”.其主管布鲁斯?卡尔森于2010年宣布他的机构已正着手实施“过去25年间所承担的最为积极的发射计划”。Much of the money goes on satellites—spy satellites for keeping tabs on other countries,大部分资金将用于卫星研制,包括用于监控其它国家活动的间谍卫星、communications satellites for soldiers to talk to each other, and even the Global Positioning System satellites,用于士兵交谈的通讯卫星,甚至包括为士兵和轰炸提供目标导航的全球定位系统卫星,designed to guide soldiers and bombs to their targets, and now expanded to aid civilian navigation.现在其应用范围已扩大到援助民用导航。But there are more exotic programmes.但也有着更多的特殊计划。The air force runs one for anti-satellite warfare, designed to destroy or disable enemy birds.美国空军实施了一项反卫星战计划,旨在破坏敌方卫星或令其失效。Another includes experimental aircraft, such as the X-37, a cut-down, unmanned descendant of the space shuttle.另一项计划则包括研制诸如X-37这样的实验飞机,它是美国航天飞机的简化及无人驾驶版本。The air force will not say what the X-37 is for.美国空军拒绝透露X-37的用途。One theory is that it is a spy plane, designed to catch savvy targets that know how to go to ground when spy satellites—which have predictable orbits—are overhead.有一种说法是X-37是一架间谍飞机,旨在捕获各种精明的目标。这些精明的目标发现间谍卫星位临上空时,能够知道如何隐蔽自己。Another is that it is intended to destroy satellites, or to drop bombs from orbit.另一种说法是X-37用于破坏卫星或从轨道上投掷炸弹。Other nations are flexing their muscles.其它国家也正显示着自己的军事实力。American commanders report that China regularly fires powerful lasers into the sky, demonstrating their ability to dazzle or blind satellites.美军指挥官报告说,中国定期向空中发射强力激光,展示他们有能力迷惑或致盲卫星。In 2007 a Chinese missile destroyed an old weather satellite, creating a huge field of orbiting debris.2007年,中国的导弹摧毁了一个旧的气候卫星,产生了巨大的轨道碎片区域。Afterwards, Russia spoke publicly about its anti-satellite weapons.随后,俄国公开谈论它的反卫星武器。This is one space race that is well under way.这场太空竞赛正在如火如荼地展开着。 /201304/236895 老河口市妇幼保健院中医院看泌尿科怎么样襄阳市第一人民医院上环怎么样

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