2019年07月16日 08:09:41|来源:国际在线|编辑:康泰爱问
Demography人口统计学Hip and hobbling时髦与蹒跚齐行Not all towns are desperate to attract young people并不是所有城镇都渴望吸引年轻人Nationally, an ageing population is a problem. But locally it can be a boon. The over-50s control 80% of Britains wealth, and like to spend it on houses and high-street shopping. The young “generation rent”, by contrast, is poor, distractible and liable to shop online.在国际上,人口老龄化是个问题。但在地方范围内,这可能是个福音。在英国,50岁以上的人群掌握着80%的财富,并乐于将这些财富用于购置房产和商场购物。相比而言,年轻的“租房一代”经济比较拮据,很容易分心,且依赖网上购物。People aged between 50 and 74 spend twice as much as the under-30s on cinema tickets. Between 2000 and 2010 restaurant spending by those aged 65-74 increased by 33%, while the under-30s spent 18% less. The pension pots liberated by George Osbornes budget earlier this year will likely pour into property. And while the young still struggle to find work, older people are retiring later. During the financial crisis full-time employment fell for every age group but the over-65s, and there has been a rash of older entrepreneurs. Pensioners also support the working population by volunteering: some 100 retirees in Christchurch help out as business mentors.年龄在50到74岁之间的人群花在电影票上的钱是30岁以下人群的两倍之多。在2000年到2010年间,65到74岁人群的餐厅费用增长了33%,而30岁以下人群则减少了18%。今年年初因乔治·奥斯本的新财政预算案而被释放的养老金池将很可能大量涌入流通市场。当年轻人还在找工作的苦海中挣扎时,老年人的退休年龄却越来越推后了。金融危机期间,各个年龄阶层的全职工作率都降低了,只有65岁以上的人群没有受到影响,并且还出现了大批的老年企业家。领取养老金的人还通过志愿务来帮助工作人群:克莱斯特彻奇就有约100名退休人员志愿成为企业导师。Even if they wanted to, most small towns and cities could not capture the cool kids. Mobile young professionals cluster, and greatly prefer to cluster in London. Even supposed meccas like Manchester are ageing: clubs in that city are becoming members-only, and there are an increasing number of places, as one resident puts it, that “a 19-year-old wouldnt be seen dead in”. Towns that aim too young, like Bracknell and Chippenham, can find their high streets full of closed La Senzas (a lingerie chain) and struggling tattoo parlours. Outside Britains capital, high concentrations of youth are commonly tied to high unemployment rates.即使很多小城镇希望吸引年轻人,它们也做不到。流动的年轻人喜欢扎堆,尤其是喜欢聚集在伦敦。即使是像曼彻斯特这样所谓的麦加圣地也在逐渐老龄化:城市里的俱乐部正转向会员制,正如一个当地居民所说,越来越多的地方“看不到一个十九岁的少年在其中醉生梦死”。像布拉科内尔和切本哈姆这样定位于年龄过小的年轻人的城市,很容易发现自己的商业区满是倒闭的La Senzas(一内衣连锁店)和艰难经营的纹身室。在英国首都之外,年轻人的聚集通常都与高失业率捆绑在一起。Companies often lag behind local authorities in working this out. They are London-obsessed, and have been slow to appreciate the growing economic heft of the old—who are assumed, often wrongly, to stick with products they learned to love in their youth. But Caroyln Freeman of Revelation Marketing reckons Britain could be on the verge of a marketing surge directed at the grey pound, “similar to what we saw with the pink”. The window will not remain open forever: soon the baby boomers will start to ail, and no one else alive today is likely to have such a rich retirement.公司总是要比地方机构晚一步发现这个问题。他们痴迷于伦敦,并在欣赏日益增长的老年人不断提升的经济地位方面显得很迟钝——老年人通常被错误认为只会购买年轻时就认定了的产品。但来自Revelation Marketing(启示营销)的卡罗琳·弗里曼推测英国可能处于瞄准老年人钱包的营销边缘,“与我们从婴儿身上看到的潜力相似”。这么一个机会不会永远处于空窗期:很快婴儿潮世代的人年岁将会增长,而今天也再没有其他人会拥有这么好的退休待遇。Meanwhile, with the over-50s holding the purse strings, the towns that draw them are likely to grow more and more pleasant. The lord mayor of Manchester, Sue Cooley, notes that decent restaurants and nice shops spring up in the favoured haunts of the old, just as they do in the trendy, revamped boroughs of London. Latimer House, a Christchurch furniture store full of retro clothing and 1940s music, would not look out of place in Hackney. Improved high streets then entice customers of all ages.同时,由于50岁以上的人群手握着钱包,吸引他们的城镇正在变得越来越令人满意。曼彻斯特的荣誉市长苏·库利指出受老年人青睐的高档餐厅和精致的商店正在崛起,正如在伦敦时髦、改造过的街区一样。拉蒂之家,一家摆满复古饰、播放着40年代音乐的克莱斯特彻奇家具店,在哈克尼也不会显得格格不入。改进后的商业街可以吸引各个年龄层的顾客了。Indeed, gentrification and gerontification can look remarkably similar. Old folk and young hipsters are similarly fond of vinyl and typewriters, and wander about in outsized spectacles. Some people never lose their edge.确实,中产阶级化和老年化看起来惊人的相似。老伙计和年轻潮人都喜爱和打字机,并都戴着大号的眼镜在外闲逛。有些人永远风华正茂。 /201410/333529

Urban land城市土地Space and the city空间和都市Poor land use in the worlds greatest cities carries a huge cost糟糕的土地利用方式已经成为世界大都市不能承受之重BUY land, advised Mark Twain; theyre not making it any more. In fact, land is not really scarce: the entire population of America could fit into Texas with more than an acre for each household to enjoy. What drives prices skyward is a collision between rampant demand and limited supply in the great metropolises like London, Mumbai and New York. In the past ten years real prices in Hong Kong have risen by 150%. Residential property in Mayfair, in central London, can go for as much as 55,000 (82,000) per square metre. A square mile of Manhattan residential property costs 16.5 billion.马克吐温曾建议说“都去买地吧”,但现在他们已经不这么做了。事实上,土地并非真的如此稀缺:仅一个德克萨斯州就能容纳整个美国人口,而且每户能有一英亩之多。在伦敦、孟买、纽约这种大都市里,地价飞涨的现实是疯狂的需求和有限的供给共同作用的结果。在过去10年里,香港的房地产价格上涨了150%。伦敦中心的梅菲尔区的住宅价格能飙至55000英镑每平米(相当于82000美元)。曼哈顿,一平方英里的的住宅价格为165亿美元。Even in these great cities the scarcity is artificial. Regulatory limits on the height and density of buildings constrain supply and inflate prices. A recent analysis by academics at the London School of Economics estimates that land-use regulations in the West End of London inflate the price of office space by about 800%; in Milan and Paris the rules push up prices by around 300%. Most of the enormous value captured by landowners exists because it is well-nigh impossible to build new offices to compete those profits away.即便是在这样的城市里,稀缺性也是人为造成的。从法律层面上对建筑的高度和密度进行限制,降低了供给,也助推了房价。伦敦经济学院的一项最新学术分析表明,土地使用管理条例令伦敦西区办公用房的价格上涨了800%,令米兰和巴黎的上涨了约300%。巨额资产掌握在现有的土地所有者手中,因为在这里建新办公楼引入竞争、分享收益,是几乎不可能的事。The costs of this misfiring property market are huge, mainly because of their effects on individuals. High housing prices force workers towards cheaper but less productive places. According to one study, employment in the Bay Area around San Francisco would be about five times larger than it is but for tight limits on construction. Tot up these costs in lost earnings and unrealised human potential, and the figures become dizzying. Lifting all the barriers to urban growth in America could raise the countrys GDP by between 6.5% and 13.5%, or by about 1 trillion-2 trillion. It is difficult to think of many other policies that would yield anything like that.一潭死水的房地产市场所带来的社会成本是巨大的,因为它影响了这里的每个人。高昂的房价迫使务工者搬到更便宜但生产力更低下的地方。根据一项研究结果显示,如果不是因为对建筑业的严格限制,旧金山湾区的就业应该比现在多五倍;再加上损失的收入和未能实现的人的潜力,这个数字能把你吓晕。如果能扫清美国境内所有限制城市增长的阻碍因素,那么国家GDP将会增加6.5%~13.5%,即10亿~20亿美元。这是任何其他政策都难以产生的巨大影响。Metro stops停滞的都市Two long-run trends have led to this fractured market. One is the revival of the city as the central cog in the global economic machine. In the 20th century, tumbling transport costs weakened the gravitational pull of the city; in the 21st, the digital revolution has restored it. Knowledge-intensive industries such as technology and finance thrive on the clustering of workers who share ideas and expertise. The economies and populations of metropolises like London, New York and San Francisco have rebounded as a result.两个长期趋势致使房产市场变得如此令人抓狂。其一是,城市的复兴成为了全球经济运转中必不可少的中心环节。在20世纪,糟糕的交通削弱了城市的吸引力;到了21世纪,数字革命修复了这一缺陷。像科技、金融这种知识密集型产业只有在人们能互相交流思想和专业技能的地方才能繁荣兴旺。伦敦、纽约和旧金山这样的大城市,其经济和人口之所以能复苏,正是得益于此。What those cities have not regained is their historical ability to stretch in order to accommodate all those who want to come. There is a good reason for that: unconstrained urban growth in the late 19th century fostered crime and disease. Hence the second trend, the proliferation of green belts and rules on zoning. Over the course of the past century land-use rules have piled up so plentifully that getting planning permission is harder than hailing a cab on a wet afternoon. London has strict rules preventing new structures blocking certain views of St Pauls Cathedral. Googles plans to build housing on its Mountain View campus in Silicon Valley are being resisted on the ground that residents might keep pets, which could harm the local owl population. Nimbyish residents of low-density districts can exploit planning rules on everything from light levels to parking spaces to block plans for construction.然而,这些城市失去了一项它们曾经有过的能力:扩张以容纳所有想要移居进来的人们。一个不错的理由就是:19世纪晚期无限制的城市扩张成为了犯罪和疾病的温床。那么第二个趋势就显而易见了:城市绿化带的泛滥和分区管制。纵观整个上世纪,政府出台了数不清的土地使用法规,以至于获取一个规划许可比在雨天的下午打出租还要困难。伦敦严格控制新建任何构筑物,以防止圣保罗大教堂的景观被破坏。Google计划在其所有的山景城园区建造房屋,却以“居民可能会养宠物、并且这会令当地猫头鹰的数量减少”为理由遭到拒绝。低密度社区Nimbyish的居民可以拿规划法规做挡箭牌为所欲为,从要求亮度水平到停车空间再到阻止一切建设。A good thing, too, say many. The roads and rails criss-crossing big cities aly creak under the pressure of growing populations. Dampening property prices hurts one of the few routes to wealth-accumulation still available to the middle classes. A cautious approach to development is the surest way to preserve public spaces and a citys heritage: give economists their way, and they would quickly pave over Central Park.很多人认为,这样也不错啊。日益增长的人口已经令大城市的道路和十字交叉口不堪重负。被抑制的房地产价格虽然令一部分人的财富积累受到损失,但对于中产阶级来说仍然是可以承受的。发展一定要慎重,要百分之百确保公共空间和保护城市遗产:如果把决策权交给经济学家,他们一定会以迅雷不及掩耳之势把中央公园铺成水泥大道。However well these arguments go down in local planning meetings, they wilt on closer scrutiny. Home ownership is not especially egalitarian. Many households are priced out of more vibrant places. It is no coincidence that the home-ownership rate in the metropolitan area of downtrodden Detroit, at 71%, is well above the 55% in booming San Francisco. You do not need to build a forest of skyscrapers for a lot more people to make their home in big cities. San Francisco could squeeze in twice as many and remain half as dense as Manhattan.然而,这些理由经不起本地规划会议的仔细斟酌。房屋所有权不是人人均等的。很多家庭被高房价挡在充满活力的地区之外。都市区的房屋所有权比例在日渐式微的底特律都达到71%,这一数字比日益兴旺的旧金山的55%要高得多,这可不是巧合。你不需要建造一片天大楼的森林来容纳越来越多在大城市安家的人们。旧金山的面积即便折叠两次,其人口密度也才只有曼哈顿的一半。Property wrongs歧路上的房地产Zoning codes were conceived as a way to balance the social good of a growing, productive city and the private costs that growth sometimes imposes. But land-use rules have evolved into something more pernicious: a mechanism through which landowners are handed both unwarranted windfalls and the means to prevent others from exercising control over their property. Even small steps to restore a healthier balance between private and public good would yield handsome returns. Policymakers should focus on two things.为了平衡不断增长且生产力强的城市中的社会利益与增长所附加的私人成本,人们想到了分区规范这个办法。但是,土地使用法规已经演变成了一个极为有害的机制:土地所有者一方面能躺着吃天上掉下来的馅饼,一方面还能光明正大地阻止任何人染指他们的不动产。现在即使能在健康地平衡公私利益方面迈出一小步,都将获得相当可观的回报。政治决策者应该把精力放在两方面。First, they should ensure that city-planning decisions are made from the top down. When decisions are taken at local level, land-use rules tend to be stricter. Individual districts receive fewer of the benefits of a larger metropolitan population (jobs and taxes) than their costs (blocked views and congested streets). Moving housing-supply decisions to city level should mean that due weight is put on the benefits of growth. Any restrictions on building won by one district should be offset by increases elsewhere, so the city as a whole keeps to its development budget.第一,他们应该确保涉及城市规划的决策是自上而下制定的。当决策权在本地政府手中时,通常对土地使用的限制会更加严格。就单个街区而言,大量都市人口是弊(受阻碍的视野和拥挤的街道)大於利(就业和税收)。而将住房供应量的决定权交给城市政府,则更能全面地考虑城市发展所带来的好处。如果一个街区对建设作出限制,就要以另一个街区增加建设作为补偿,因此城市作为一个整体就可以确保其应有的开发预算。Second, governments should impose higher taxes on the value of land. In most rich countries, land-value taxes account for a small share of total revenues. Land taxes are efficient. They are difficult to dodge; you cannot stuff land into a bank-vault in Luxembourg. Whereas a high tax on property can discourage investment, a high tax on land creates an incentive to develop unused sites. Land-value taxes can also help cater for newcomers. New infrastructure raises the value of nearby land, automatically feeding through into revenues—which helps to pay for the improvements.其次,政府应该对地价征收重税。在大部分发达国家,地价税只占总收入中很小的一部分。地税是很有效的手段,因为你很难像藏钱一样把土地塞进卢森堡的保险柜里以逃避纳税。对不动产课重税会影响投资,而对土地课重税则会刺激人们开发尚未被使用的土地。地价税也有利于新来的居民。新建的基础设施能够增加附近土地的价值,然后自动转变成收入——反过来能补偿基建翻新的费用。Neither better zoning nor land taxes are easy to impose. There are logistical hurdles, such as assessing the value of land with the property stripped out. The politics is harder still. But politically tricky problems are ten-a-penny. Few offer the people who solve them a trillion-dollar reward.鉴于还有很多前期困难亟待解决,想要实施更好地分区规划或开始征收地税并不是件容易的事,比如如何刨除土地上面的房产而单独计算地价。政治方面也是个问题,但这些困难都不值一提,因为这些问题一旦解决,将会带来难以计数的丰厚回报。翻译:邓小雪 译文属译生译世 /201504/369186

It feels like all three of you have been living under there. Something that.感觉你们三个 一直住在那底下Melanie, if the stalactites grows from the ceiling of the cave,梅拉妮 如果说钟乳石是从洞穴的顶上长下来的what formation grows from the caves floor?什么东西是从洞穴的地上长上去的Do you... have you heard of the stalactites?你听说过钟乳石吗Yes, I have.So thats the one that grows from the ceiling.听说过 那么它是从顶上长下来的What grows from the floor?Theres another one that sounds like that. Right?什么是从地上长上去的 还有一个词听起来和它差不多 对吧Oh. Oh. Okay.Stalactite. Yes. Stalactite, and then the.哦 知道了 钟乳石 是的 钟乳石 然后是Stalag... Stalag...mite?Alrigt.Yes! Heather,A grown up is generally anyone over the age of 18.石 -石笋 答对啦 好的 希瑟 一般18岁以上就是成年人了What American General was born on December 5th, 1839.出生于1839年12月5日的美国将军是哪一位呢Americans General?Eh..Eh, General Lee?No.Custer?Yeah!!美国将军 是李将军吗 不是 是卡斯特吗 耶Thats all we have time for. You all win.Alrigt.时间到 你们都赢了 好了I have to drop you all in some points,but you cant all drop by once.我得跟你们;再会;了 不过你们不能同时掉下去So we are gonna start with you, Nicole.I will see you in a minute. Bye.妮可 我们先从你开始 待会儿见 拜 /201601/420909

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