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I rose before dawn in Mumbai recently to watch the city’s newspaper vendors get y for their rounds. 最近的一天,我在破晓前起床,看着孟买的报商为当日的送报工作做准备。Scores of men were squatting under the arches near the historic railway station, sorting thousands of papers in some 20 languages into teetering metre-high stacks, for distribution by bicycle. 几十个男人蹲在具有历史意义的火车站附近的拱门下,将大约20种文字的数千份报纸整理成许多一米来高、摇摇欲坠的小堆,以便用自行车送报。The sellers commit each complex order to memory, not a computer algorithm in sight.这些卖家将一笔笔复杂的订单记在心里,这里没有计算机算法的任何踪影。For anyone who started in print journalism, as I did, it is an exciting scene. 对我这样从印刷传媒业开始职业生涯的人,这一幕令人兴奋。But as a first-time visitor to the country, I also felt that the order-out-of-chaos underlined the challenge for foreign multinationals seeking to profit from India’s fabulous, fragmented, far-flung consumer market. 但作为一个首次到访印度的人,我也感觉到这种混乱中的秩序凸显出寻求从印度巨大、碎片化和地域广阔的消费者市场中获利的外国跨国公司所面临的挑战。As one consultant I met said: The company that comes to India and is waiting for India to fix things is going to fail. 就如我遇到的一名咨询师所说的:那些来到印度,等待印度搞定一切的公司会失败。The company that comes and marvels about how India has survived is going to do much better.那些来到印度,惊叹印度是如何生存下来的公司会做得更好。Such acts of tolerance and flexibility are hard for some big companies to carry off. 这种宽容和灵活态度对一些大公司来说难以做到。For years, many have glibly summed up their strategy by touting versions of the think global, act local mantra. 多年来,许多大公司把自己的战略夸夸其谈地总结为不同版本的全球化思考,本地化行动箴言。Only a few have made it work, among them Nokia, until it started concentrating too much power at its headquarters, and Nestlé, whose Maggi noodles were successful enough to attract Indian food inspectors’ unwelcome attention last year.只有为数不多的几家公司真正让这条策略奏效,其中包括诺基亚(Nokia),那是在该公司开始将过多权力集中于总部之前;还有就是雀巢(Nestlé),去年该公司旗下的美极(Maggi)方便面因为在印度市场太成功而招致印度食品检验机构不受欢迎的关注。As the complexity of newspaper distribution suggests, with its extraordinary logistical challenges (think of doing this job in a monsoon), acting local is not as simple as it sounds. 就如印度报纸配送的复杂性所表明的,由于不同寻常的物流挑战(想象一下在雨季送报的工作吧),本地化行动不像听上去那么简单。For a start, which local?首先,哪个本地?There’s so little standardisation: every region has something that defines it, Amit Agarwal, who heads Amazon India, told me. 没有什么标准化可言:每个地区都有一些属于自己的特征,亚马逊印度(Amazon India)负责人阿米特.阿加瓦尔(Amit Agarwal)告诉我,It’s like 25 different countries.就像有25个不同国家似的。Amazon — locked in combat with Indian competitors Flipkart and Snapdeal — is confident its wide selection will open Indian consumers’ wallets. 正与印度竞争对手Flipkart和Snapdeal角力的亚马逊相信,其提供的产品选择范围之广,足以让印度消费者甘愿掏腰包。Mr Agarwal boasts he has brought guinea-pig food to small towns without pet stores (raising the question: what were India’s guinea pigs eating until now?). 阿加瓦尔夸耀,他已经把豚鼠粮引入到没有宠物店的小城镇(问题来了:那么在这之前,印度的豚鼠吃什么?)。You can order online a dozen varieties of cow dung (for religious rituals), local food delicacies and the specialised grinders and mixers for preparing them.你可以在线订购十多种不同种类的牛粪(用于宗教仪式)、当地美食和置备这些美食所需的特殊的粉碎机和搅拌机。Small food suppliers’ ability to deal directly with faraway customers through online platforms means India might even miss the processed food revolution altogether, speculates Rama Bijapurkar, who advises companies on the consumer economy.规模较小的食品供应商能够通过在线平台直接与相距遥远的客户打交道;为企业提供消费经济方面的建议的拉马.比加普卡尔(Rama Bijapurkar)推测,这意味着印度有可能完全错过加工食品革命。On the same morning I visited the newspaper sellers I toured Mumbai’s fruit, vegetable, flower and fish markets. 在参观报商工作的同一天早上,我还参观了孟买的水果、蔬菜、花卉和鱼市场。Their distribution system is literally run off the backs of workers earning 10 rupees — about 12p — per sack to manhandle produce. 它们的配送系统是在工人的背上运行的,这些工人每背一包农产品挣10卢比(约12便士)。Multinationals rightly balk at trying to replace or tinker with that system. 理所应当地,跨国公司不太情愿尝试替换这个系统或者对其进行小修小补。Companies working with a technology platform — Amazon, with its Amazon Now service, or Grofers, a homegrown start-up — piggyback on local stores that are aly in the supply chain.依托技术平台的企业——比如推出Amazon Now快递务的亚马逊,或者印度本土初创企业Grofers——借助已经在供应链上的当地商铺来开展业务。Fear of complexity may be one reason some multinationals shy away from or mis India. 对复杂性的恐惧或许是一些跨国公司回避或者误读印度的一个原因。But in one sense, they are not mising it at all. 但在某种层面上,它们或许根本没有误读。The top fifth of India’s 1.3bn citizens earn as much as the next 60 per cent, although the disposable income of the top 20 per cent is nearly four times as great.印度13亿人口中,收入最高的20%的人的收入与排在其后60%的人的收入相当,尽管前者的可配收入是后者的近4倍之多。In short, it is perfectly rational for multinationals not to bother acting local for the bottom billion. 简言之,对跨国公司而言,不费心针对处于底层的10亿人采取本地化策略是完全理性的。The megabrand strategy that works well for them in developed markets can cream off the sort of high-spending consumers targeted by the house-sized advertising hoardings that lord it over Mumbai’s stall-cluttered streets.在发达市场对这些企业管用的大品牌战略,在印度有望吸引高消费人群,屹立在孟买摊位杂乱的街道上的巨幅广告牌瞄准的正是这一群体。If you ask ‘What’s the market [if I] sweat my existing model and assets,’ you still have a fairly large number, Ms Bijapurkar points out.如果你问‘(如果我)运用我现有的模式和资产,市场会是什么样子’,是你依然拥有相当多的客户,比加普卡尔指出。Tailoring strategy to local conditions is also hard and potentially costly work. 按照当地情况量身定做策略也很困难,而且有可能代价高昂。Bhavish Aggarwal, founder of Ola, the local ride-hailing company fighting Uber, says you need to build the infrastructure of your industry — which is why Ola is buying cars and training drivers. 与优步(Uber)竞争的当地招车公司Ola的创始人巴维什.阿加沃尔(Bhavish Aggarwal)说,你需要建立起你所在行业的基础设施——这就是Ola购置车辆,培训司机的原因。In India, you can’t be a disrupter because nothing exists: we have to be a creator, he says, 在印度,你不可能成为扰乱者,因为什么都不存在:我们不得不成为创造者,他说。in a jab at his notoriously disruptive US rival.此言是在暗讽以扰乱市场著称的美国竞争对手优步。By not adapting, however, foreign companies risk missing a very large trick. 然而,如果不去适应当地,外国公司有错失大量业务的风险。Data collected by Ms Bijapurkar suggest that over the 10 years to 2013-14, the income of the poorest 20 per cent of Indian households grew annually at more than triple the rate of the richest fifth and will continue to grow almost as fast in the years ahead.比加普卡尔收集的数据似乎表明,在截至2013-14年度的10年里,印度最贫困20%家庭的收入增长速度是最富裕20%家庭的3倍,而未来几年还将大致保持这样的增速。Poorer consumers will always aspire to dearer brands. 更贫困的消费者总会向往更昂贵的品牌。Some will start buying them. 一些人将会开始购买它们。But the opportunity is such that local companies and Chinese suppliers are aly expanding by appealing to Indian customers ignored by multinationals and by serving their local tastes better. 但这个机会如此诱人,以至于当地企业和中国供应商已经在扩张,以吸引跨国公司忽视的印度消费者,并且更好地务于他们的品味。By the time haughtier multinationals wake up to the rest of India, it could be too late.当更加自负的跨国公司认识到印度还有大量消费者值得迎合,可能已经为时太晚。 /201611/476521Talk of a new Silk Road may be intended to evoke romantic, non-threatening images of desert caravans, ancient ships and trade in exotic commodities. But China’s grand plan for a network of railways, highways, pipelines and ports across central Asia, and around Southeast Asia is generating anxiety in New Delhi.“新丝绸之路”的说法或许是有意唤起人们对沙漠商队、古代商船以及舶来品贸易的不具威胁的浪漫联想。但是,中国对横穿中亚和环绕东南亚的铁路网、公路网、输油管线路以及港口的宏伟计划,正在引起新德里方面的焦虑。With the 3,488km border between the two Asian neighbours still a matter of formal dispute, Indian strategic policy analysts are divided on whether China’s new Silk Road project is a strategic and economic threat to their country — or an opportunity. Many see the project — which the Chinese have called One Belt, One Road (OBOR) — as something that must be carefully navigated, as Beijing develops large projects in countries that India considers part of its natural sphere of influence. However, New Delhi lacks the financial power to offer a credible alternative.在这两个亚洲邻居之间3488千米的边界仍然处于正式纠纷状态的情况下,对于中国“新丝绸之路”项目是否对印度构成战略和经济威胁,抑或带来机遇,印度的战略政策分析人士意见分歧。很多人认为,必须谨慎应对中方所称的“一带一路”(One Belt, One Road)项目,因为中国将要在印度认为属于其天然影响范围的一些国家开发大型项目。然而,新德里方面缺乏提供可信替代选择的财力。“The Indian government is very careful about the way it handles the China rhetoric, and it isn’t y to come out arms swinging against OBOR, but it is sitting with its arms folded making it very clear that it will not endorse the project if it doesn’t like the way it was put together as a Chinese fait accompli,” says Shashank Joshi, a senior research fellow at the Royal ed Services Institute, a British defence and security think-tank.“印度政府对待中国的措辞非常谨慎,它没有准备好跳出来明确反对‘一带一路’,但是它双臂交叉坐着等待,表明如果它不喜欢这个项目被当作中方既成事实的方式,它就不会持该项目,”英国国防和安全智库——皇家联合军种研究院(Royal ed Services Institute)高级研究员沙善#8226;乔希(Shashank Joshi)表示。“They cannot be seen to be outwardly hostile to a scheme which many smaller Asian neighbours view as a good opportunity for large flows of Chinese capital that India cannot deliver,” he says.“他们不能从表面上被看出来对一带一路怀有敌意,因为该计划被很多亚洲较小邻国视为引入大量中国资本的良机,而这类资本是印度无力输送的,”他表示。Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at New Delhi’s Centre for Policy Research, sees China’s new Silk Road initiative as a repackaging — in more palatable terms — of China’s so-called “string of pearls” strategy, which India views as an attempt to strategically encircle it.新德里政策研究中心(Centre for Policy Research)战略研究教授布拉马#8226;切拉尼(Brahma Chellaney)把中国的“新丝绸之路”计划视为——以更容易让人接受的方式——对中国“珍珠链”战略的重新包装;印度把这一战略视为中国企图对其实施战略包围。The “string of pearls” theory argues that Chinese investment in ports in south Asia is a precursor to developing overseas naval bases. China has, for example, aly built a major port at Hambantota in Sri Lanka, which overlooks important shipping lanes that carry much of the world’s oil trade, and which India views as strategically important for its own defence.按照“珍珠链”理论,中国在南亚投资建设港口是开发海外海军基地的先兆。例如,中国已经在斯里兰卡的汉班托特(Hambantota)建设了一个大型港口;斯里兰卡濒临全球很大一部分原油贸易必经的重要航道,同时印度认为斯里兰卡对其自己的国防具有战略重要性。The visit of Chinese submarines at the Colombo port in 2014 raised fears that the facility’s purpose is not economic but military. Chinese investment is also planned for ports in Bangladesh and Myanmar, raising concerns that they may serve a dual purpose.2014年中国海军潜艇访问斯里兰卡科伦坡港,此举引发了人们对于该港的用途并非经贸而是军用的担忧。中国在孟加拉国和缅甸投资的港口也在规划中,引发了人们对于这些港口可能军民两用的担忧。“The new Silk Road is just a nice new name for the strategy they’ve been pursuing,” says Mr Chellaney. “They’ve wrapped that strategy in more benign terms. The Chinese dream is pre-eminence in Asia, and this goes to the heart of that dream.”“‘新丝绸之路’只是给他们在一直追求的战略换了一个好听的新名字,”切拉尼称,“他们给该战略换了一身更加和善的包装。中国的梦想是称雄亚洲,而该计划处于中国梦的核心。”“It’s not just a trade initiative,” he says. “What China is doing has a strategic element that is increasingly obvious.”“它不只是一个贸易倡议,”他称,“中国在做的事情带有战略元素,这一点日益明显。”India is most exercised about plans for a bn economic corridor linking China and Pakistan, India’s nuclear-armed neighbour and rival. That blueprint envisions goods travelling from China’s western region to Pakistan’s Gwadar, a once sleepy Arabian Sea port now run by the China Overseas Port Holding Company. It is considered a staging point between central Asia and the Gulf.印度最担心的是连接中国和巴基斯坦的460亿美元经济走廊计划;巴基斯坦是印度的邻国以及对手,拥有核武器。按照该计划的蓝图,商品将从中国西部运往巴基斯坦的瓜达尔港(Gwadar)。瓜达尔曾经是坐落于阿拉伯海之滨的一个沉寂的港口,如今由中国海外港口控股有限公司(China Overseas Port Holding Company)经营。它被认为是中亚和海湾地区之间的中转点。Part of the corridor will pass through Pakistan-held Kashmir, a territory that is still the subject of a decades-old, unresolved dispute between India and Pakistan. Indian analysts say that acceptance of the corridor would effectively acknowledge Pakistan’s rights over the territory now under its control, while India’s own claims over Kashmir have yet to be resolved — something New Delhi considers unacceptable. “This is a large scale project bringing People’s Liberation Army personnel [said to be guarding some project locations] right into the heart of what India considers to be occupied territory,” Mr Joshi says.中巴经济走廊的一部分将穿过克什米尔地区巴基斯坦控制的部分,该地区是印度和巴基斯坦之间好几十年未能解决的领土纠纷的对象。印度分析人士表示,接受这条经济走廊相当于承认巴基斯坦对目前在其控制下的那部分克什米尔领土的主权,而印度本身对克什米尔的主权主张尚未解决——这在新德里方面看来是无法接受的。“这是一项大规模的工程,会把解放军人员(据称是为了守卫一些项目地点)直接带到被印度视为被占领土的心脏地带,”皇家联合军种研究院的乔希表示。At a recent conference in Gwadar, Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Raheel Sharif, accused India of deliberately attempting to undermine the project. “India, our neighbour, has openly challenged this development initiative,” he said. “We will not allow anyone to create impediments or turbulence in any parts of Pakistan.”最近在瓜达尔召开的一次会议上,巴基斯坦陆军参谋长拉希勒#8226;谢里夫上将(Raheel Sharif)指责印度企图破坏该项目。“我们的邻国印度公开叫板这个开发项目,”他称,“我们不会允许任何人在巴基斯坦任何地方制造障碍或引起动荡。”But wary as India may be of Chinese ambitions, analysts say New Delhi needs to take a measured approach to the new Silk Road, and embrace individual components.但是,尽管印度可能对中国的野心抱有戒心,但是分析师称,新德里需要有分寸地对待新丝绸之路,欢迎某些个别项目。India is aly a member of the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which will finance much of the infrastructure, potentially giving it some leverage over how the plan unfolds.印度已经是中国主导创立的亚洲基础设施投资(AIIB,简称亚投行)的成员国之一,而该行将为很多基础设施项目提供资金,这可能会使印度在该计划如何展开的问题上具有一些影响力。“For every belt they create, and every road that we create, can we create a slip road that connects Indian opportunities to the larger global market rather than reject it outright?” asks Samir Saran, of the Observer Research Foundation. “Can we#8201;…#8201;use their institutions to our own advantage?”“对于他们创建的每一带和每一路,我们能不能打造一条匝道,让印度的机遇与更大的全球市场互联互通,而不是把这个计划一概拒之门外?”新德里观察者研究基金会(Observer Research Foundation)的萨米尔#8226;萨兰(Samir Saran)称,“我们能把他们的机构为我所用吗?” /201605/445759

A rise in HIV cases among young gay men and people over 60 in China has raised the question of whether the disease is sping undetected among people who do not consider themselves at risk.中国年轻男性同性恋者和60岁以上人群艾滋病毒(HIV)感染病例增多,这提出了一个问题,艾滋病是否正在不认为自己有感染风险的人群中悄然传播。Figures from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention released ahead of World Aids Day on Thursday, show 96,000 new HIV cases in the first nine months of this year, putting China on track to exceed the 115,000 new cases recorded in 2015. 中国疾病预防控制中心(CDC)在12月1日世界艾滋病日前发布的数据表明,今年头9个月新诊断发现艾滋病感染者9.6万人,使今年可能超过2015年录得的11.5万新发病例。The country accounts for about 3 per cent of new HIV cases worldwide, and 2 per cent of the total global HIV-positive population.中国约占世界新发HIV感染病例的3%,占全球HIV阳性人口总数的2%。Trends among the new cases indicate government efforts to manage HIV may be missing the mark.新发病例的趋势表明,政府控制HIV的努力可能未能达到目的。China is one of the countries with the best data but that comes at a price, said Catherine Sozi, UNAids country director in China. 中国是数据最好的国家之一,但这是有代价的,联合国艾滋病规划署(UNAids)中国地区负责人苏凯琳(Catherine Sozi)说。Chinese data reflect documented HIV cases, not the survey projections used in many other countries. 中国的数据反映记录在案的HIV病例,而其他许多国家使用调查预测的数字。By the time you know every gay man who is HIV positive or every female sex worker the disease has moved elsewhere.等到你获知每一个HIV阳性的男同性恋者或者女性性工作者,疾病已经转移到其他地方。Of the new cases this year, 28 per cent involved men who have sex with men. 在今年的新发病例中,28%源于男男同性性接触行为。Last year’s data also showed new cases rising among young people and particularly among gay college students. 去年的数据也表明,年轻人,尤其是男同性恋大学生中的新发病例出现上升。Chinese commentators view this as a consequence of the stigma attached to homosexuality in China, which might prevent people from being tested for HIV, while non-government organisations worry that a crackdown on NGOs limits their ability to reach the gay community.国内人士认为这是中国同性恋污名化造成的一种后果,人们可能因此不去检测HIV,而非政府组织(NGO)担忧,中国对NGO的打击限制了他们触及同性恋群体的能力。But Dr Sozi believes the new cases among gay men reflect not a failure to reach them, but the Chinese gay community’s relative success in persuading people to get tested.但苏凯琳认为,男同性恋群体中的新发病例反映的是中国同性恋群体在说人们接受测试方面相对成功,并非相关机构未能触及这一群体。Blued, a gay hook-up app with millions of users, has initiated Aids-education campaigns and operates several free testing centres in Beijing. 拥有数百万用户的男同性恋交友应用软件Blued发起了艾滋病教育运动,并在北京运营了几家免费检测中心。Its campaign could be boosted by the introduction of self-testing kits that allow people to test in privacy, without having to out themselves at a state-run hospital.引入自我检测套件或许有助于促进Blued的运动,因为这让人们能够私下进行检测,无需在国营医院暴露自己的身份。The World Health Organisation this week formally recommended the use of self-testing to help reach the estimated 14m people globally who do not know they are HIV positive. 本周世界卫生组织(WTO)正式推荐使用自我检测手段,以帮助触及全球范围内那些不知道自己是HIV阳性的人,据估计这些人的人数达到1400万。In China that includes young gay men who typically have very little sex education when they become sexually active in high school or college.在中国,这个数字包含一些年轻的男同性恋者,他们在高中或者大学进入性活跃期时,通常接受的性教育极少。Chinese society still has lots of misunderstanding toward homosexuality and Aids Blued创始人耿乐表示:中国社会对同性恋和艾滋病依然存在许多误解。so affected people are reluctant to receive help from the government and NGOs, says Blued founder Geng Le.因此,受感染人群不愿接受来自政府和非政府组织的帮助。In a sign of evolving social norms, Chinese social media cheered when Aids testing kits popped up at a handful of universities in Beijing and Chengdu. 当艾滋病试剂盒出现在北京和成都的几所大学时,中国社交媒体曾拍手称快,显示出中国社会规范的进步。The school is so concerned about gays, one post said, 其中一个帖子表示:学校对同志如此关怀。while others complained that testing kits should also be available in women’s bathrooms.而其他人则抱怨称,女厕所也应该提供试剂盒。But outreach to groups known to be at risk could bypass migrant workers or sexually active college students, populations that are unaware Aids is a risk.不过,伸向已知高风险人群的援手,可能会忽略外来务工人员或性活跃的大学生,而他们正是没有认识到艾滋病风险的人群。Chinese government officials and society believe Aids is limited to gay men, drug users, prostitutes and pockets of people who contracted the disease from blood sales or transfusions. 中国政府官员和中国社会都认为,艾滋病仅限于男同性恋者、吸毒者、和通过卖血或输血感染上这种疾病的人群。A whole generation may know about Aids, they are aware, but they don’t think it has anything to do with them, Dr Sozi said.苏凯琳士表示:整整一代人也许听说过艾滋病,他们知道艾滋病,然而他们却认为这和他们没有任何关系。She points to the otherwise unusual rise of Aids among older people — a group that could reflect migrant workers who visited prostitutes far from home and the wives they returned to after a life on the road. 她提到了较年长人群中艾滋病病例的异常增长——这一人群可能代表着因远离家乡而买春的外来务工人员以及他们在外漂泊后返乡团聚的配偶。Figures show 15 per cent of the new cases in 2015 were recorded among people over the age of 60.数据显示,2015年新增病例中,15%的人年龄在60岁以上。Chinese NGOs can apply for grants to do outreach to known at-risk groups, after Chinese premier Li Keqiang personally allocated money from the central government budget to fill a gap when international agencies stopped funding China programmes around 2013.2013年左右,当多家国际机构停止为中国艾滋病项目提供资金时,中国总理李克强亲自从中央政府预算中拨款填补空缺。在那之后,中国非政府组织可以申请资金,向已知的高风险人群施以援手。Provincial governments are also relatively flexible in allocating Aids spending to cities and regions where it is known to be prevalent. 在向已知的艾滋病流行城市和地区分配防艾资金方面,各省政府也相对灵活。Only six provinces account for about 60 per cent of China’s known HIV cases.目前中国已知艾滋病病例中,大约60%集中在仅仅6个省份。While Chinese data track individuals diagnosed with HIV, it does not record the secondary infections that kill most Aids patients. 尽管中国的数据跟踪被诊断带有HIV病毒的人,该数据却不会记录导致多数艾滋病患者丧生的继发性感染。In Africa, that is often tuberculosis, a disease that is common among segments of Chinese society including coal miners that are not categorised as at-risk groups for Aids.在非洲,这种继发性感染往往是肺结核,这是在中国社会一些群体中十分常见的疾病,包括不被归为艾滋病高风险人群的煤矿工人。 /201612/481649

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