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楼主:好门户 时间:2019年11月19日 13:34:41 点击:0 回复:0
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It is said that there is a correlation between the number of storks’ nests found on Danish houses and the number of children born in those houses. Could the old story about babies being delivered by storks really be true? No. Correlation is not causation. Storks do not deliver children but larger houses have more room both for children and for storks.丹麦流传着一种说法,一户人家屋檐上的鹳巢数量与这家人所生孩子的数量存在着相关性。婴儿是鹳鸟送来的古老传说是真的吗?当然不是。相关性跟因果关系不是一回事。鹳不会送来孩子,但大房子有更大的空间为孩子和鹳所用。This much-loved statistical anecdote seems less amusing when you consider how it was used in a US Senate committee hearing in 1965. The expert witness giving testimony was arguing that while smoking may be correlated with lung cancer, a causal relationship was unproven and implausible. Pressed on the statistical parallels between storks and cigarettes, he replied that they “seem to me the same”.这是一则人们喜闻乐见的统计趣闻,但如果你知道1965年在美国参议院一场听会上它是如何被用到的,你就不会觉得那么有趣了。那位做听发言的专家人辩称,尽管吸烟或许跟肺癌相关,但两者之间不存在已明的、令人信的因果关系。当被问及为何把鹳和孩子的关系与香烟和肺癌的关系进行类比,他回答说,两者“在我看来是一样的”。The witness’s name was Darrell Huff, a freelance journalist beloved by generations of geeks for his wonderful and hugely successful 1954 book How to Lie with Statistics. His reputation today might be rather different had the proposed sequel made it to print. How to Lie with Smoking Statistics used a variety of stork-style arguments to throw doubt on the connection between smoking and cancer, and it was supported by a grant from the Tobacco Institute. It was never published, for reasons that remain unclear. (The story of Huff’s career as a tobacco consultant was brought to the attention of statisticians in articles by Andrew Gelman in Chance in 2012 and by Alex Reinhart in Significance in 2014.)这位人的名字叫达莱尔#8226;哈夫(Darrell Huff),是一名自由记者,因其1954年出版的那本精、大为畅销的《统计数字会撒谎》(How to Lie with Statistics)而深受数代极客的爱戴。如果该书续集付印的话,他今天的名声或许会完全不同。《吸烟统计数字会撒谎》(How to Lie with Smoking Statistics)使用了各种鹳式论点来对吸烟与癌症的相关性提出质疑。该书得到了美国的烟草研究所(Tobacco Institute)资助,但不知出于什么原因一直没有出版。(2012年安德鲁#8226;格尔曼(Andrew Gelman)在《Chance》杂志上发表的文章,以及2014年亚历克斯#8226;莱因哈特(Alex Reinhart)在《Significance》杂志上发表的文章,使哈夫担任烟草业顾问的经历引起统计学家们的注意。)Indisputably, smoking causes lung cancer and various other deadly conditions. But the problematic relationship between correlation and causation in general remains an active area of debate and confusion. The “spurious correlations” compiled by Harvard law student Tyler Vigen and displayed on his website (tylervigen.com) should be a warning. Did you realise that consumption of margarine is strongly correlated with the divorce rate in Maine?毋庸置疑,吸烟会导致肺癌和其他多种致命疾病。但广泛意义上的相关性与因果之间的尚存疑问的关系,仍是当前一个极易引起争议和混淆的领域。哈佛大学(Harvard)法学院学生泰勒#8226;维根(Tyler Vige)编撰并发布在其网站(tylervigen.com)上的“伪相关”应算是一种警告。你知道缅因州人造奶油的消费量与离婚率之间存在很强的相关性吗?We cannot rely on correlation alone, then. But insisting on absolute proof of causation is too exacting a standard (arguably, an impossible one). Between those two extremes, where does the right balance lie between trusting correlations and looking for evidence of causation?所以,我们不能仅仅依赖相关性。但是,坚持为因果关系提供绝对据就过于苛刻了(甚至是一种不可能达到的标准)。在这两个极端之间,如何在相信相关性与寻找因果据之间达到合理的平衡呢?Scientists, economists and statisticians have tended to demand causal explanations for the patterns they see. It’s not enough to know that college graduates earn more money — we want to know whether the college education boosted their earnings, or if they were smart people who would have done well anyway. Merely looking for correlations was not the stuff of rigorous science.科学家、经济学家和统计学家倾向于要求为他们看到的现象提出因果解释。知道大学毕业生能赚更多钱还不够,我们想知道,大学教育是否提高了他们的收入,或者他们本来就是聪明人、不管接受大学教育与否都能赚更多钱。仅仅寻找相关性并非严格科学的做法。But with the advent of “big data” this argument has started to shift. Large data sets can throw up intriguing correlations that may be good enough for some purposes. (Who cares why price cuts are most effective on a Tuesday? If it’s Tuesday, cut the price.) Andy Haldane, chief economist of the Bank of England, recently argued that economists might want to take mere correlations more seriously. He is not the first big-data enthusiast to say so.但随着“大数据”的到来,这场争论开始发生变化。海量数据集可以产生一些有趣的相关性,在某些用途上它们就足够好用了(谁关心为何周二降价效果最好呢?如果确是这样,那就选这一天降价。)英国央行(BoE)首席经济学家安德鲁#8226;霍尔丹(Andy Haldane)不久前表示,经济学家们或许想更认真地看待纯粹相关性(mere correlation)。他不是第一个这么说的大数据热衷者。This brings us back to smoking and cancer. When the British epidemiologist Richard Doll first began to suspect the link in the late 1940s, his analysis was based on a mere correlation. The causal mechanism was unclear, as most of the carcinogens in tobacco had not been identified; Doll himself suspected that lung cancer was caused by fumes from tarmac roads, or possibly cars themselves.我们回头来讲抽烟与癌症之间的关系。20世纪40年代末,英国流行病学家理查德#8226;多尔(Richard Doll)最早开始怀疑二者之间的联系。当时他的分析基于纯粹相关性,他不清楚因果机制,因为当时还没确定烟草中的大多数致癌物。多尔本人怀疑肺癌的致病原因是柏油公路的烟气,或者可能就是汽车本身。Doll’s early work on smoking and cancer with Austin Bradford Hill, published in 1950, was duly criticised in its day as nothing more than a correlation. The great statistician Ronald Fisher repeatedly weighed into the argument in the 1950s, pointing out that it was quite possible that cancer caused smoking — after all, precancerous growths irritated the lung. People might smoke to soothe that irritation. Fisher also observed that some genetic predisposition might cause both lung cancer and a tendency to smoke. (Another statistician, Joseph Berkson, observed that people who were tough enough to resist adverts and peer pressure were also tough enough to resist lung cancer.)多尔与奥斯汀#8226;布拉德福德#8226;希尔(Austin Bradford Hill)在1950年发表了他们关于吸烟与癌症关系的早期研究结果,由于俩人的研究基于纯粹相关性,在当时果不其然遭到了批评。伟大的统计学家罗纳德#8226;费雪(Ronald Fisher)在20世纪50年代多次加入论战,指出很可能是癌症引起吸烟,毕竟癌前期病变会对肺部造成刺激,人们可能会通过吸烟来缓解这一刺激。费雪还认为有些遗传特征可能既会引发肺癌,还会引起吸烟倾向。(另一位统计学家约瑟夫#8226;伯克森(Joseph Berkson)提出,假如一个人强悍到足以抵制广告的诱惑和同龄人的压力,那么他也强悍到足以抵抗肺癌。)Hill and Doll showed us that correlation should not be dismissed too easily. But they also showed that we shouldn’t give up on the search for causal explanations. The pair painstakingly continued their research, and evidence of a causal association soon mounted.希尔和多尔的例子告诉我们,不要轻易否定相关性,但他们也以行动明,不应放弃寻找因果解释。俩人继续勤恳研究,很快就发现了更多表明因果关系的据。Hill and Doll took a pragmatic approach in the search for causation. For example, is there a dose-response relationship? Yes: heavy smokers are more likely to suffer from lung cancer. Does the timing make sense? Again, yes: smokers develop cancer long after they begin to smoke. This contradicts Fisher’s alternative hypothesis that people self-medicate with cigarettes in the early stages of lung cancer. Do multiple sources of evidence add up to a coherent picture? Yes: when doctors heard about what Hill and Doll were finding, many of them quit smoking, and it became possible to see that the quitters were at lower risk of lung cancer. We should respect correlation but it is a clue to a deeper truth, not the end of our investigations.希尔和多尔在寻找因果关系时采取了一种务实的方法。比如,是否存在一种剂量效应?是的,烟瘾大的人更可能患肺癌。烟龄长短有关系吗?有关系,吸烟者开始吸烟很久后,癌细胞开始形成。这与费舍尔设想的人们在肺癌早期阶段用烟草进行自我医疗的假设相矛盾。多个据来源凑到一起能否得到一个逻辑连贯的描述?是:能够得到。当医生们听闻希尔和多尔的发现时,许多医生开始戒烟,现实情况也表明戒烟者患肺癌的风险要更低。我们应该尊重相关性,但相关性只是通向更深层真理的一个线索,而不是研究的终点。It’s not clear why Huff and Fisher were so fixated on the idea that the growing evidence on smoking was a mere correlation. Both of them were paid as consultants by the tobacco industry and some will believe that the consulting fees caused their scepticism. It seems just as likely that their scepticism caused the consulting fees. We may never know.目前尚不清楚为什么面对越来越多的吸烟致癌的据,赫夫和费雪却执着地认为这仅是相关性。他们二人都是烟草行业的顾问,因而有些人会认为他们的怀疑动机来源于顾问费。但也很可能正是他们的怀疑带来了顾问费。到底哪个为因,哪个为果,后人可能永远不得而知。 /201504/372173

Towering stilettos may be the height of fashion – but coping with the pain and discomfort they cause can be a tall order, as millions of women will testify.穿上细高跟鞋可谓登上时尚的顶峰了——但数百万女同胞们可以明,要忍受穿上它的疼痛与不适太难了。Now, though, one entrepreneur claims she has finally found the formula for high heels that are as comfortable as trainers.尽管如此,如今一家公司声称他们终于找到了高跟鞋设计的最佳方案,穿上它就和穿运动鞋一样舒适。Dolly Singh, a former executive with a US space transport company, called on experts including a rocket scientist, an astronaut and an orthopaedic surgeon to help her create the ultimate comfy heels using hi-tech plastics.多莉·辛格(Dolly Singh)是一名美国宇航运输公司的前总监。她召集了包括一名火箭科学家、一名宇航员和一名矫形外科医生在内的专家团队,来协助她设计出这双高科技塑料制成的终极舒适的高跟鞋。Ms Singh managed to convince the scientists to tackle it as a #39;serious engineering problem#39; and their first pair of stilettoes is due to go on sale in a few months#39; time.辛格女士成功说这些科学家把其当成一个;严肃的工程问题;。他们研制出来的第一款细高跟鞋将在未来几个月开售。Unlike traditional stilettoes, which are based on a metal foot plate and rod for a heel, the Thesis Couture shoes are made of high-tech plastics and polymers.与金属鞋底、鞋跟的传统高跟鞋不同,这款Thesis Couture高跟鞋是由高科技塑料和高分子聚合物制成的。Designed to distribute the wearer#39;s body weight from heel to toe, aerospace-grade foams in the sole reduce the impact of each step on the foot by up to 50 per cent.该设计将身体的重量从脚跟分散到脚趾,鞋底运用宇航级别的泡沫减少走路给脚带来的一半压力。But such functional fashion does come at a price – up to 600 a pair, to be precise.但是这种功能性的时尚女鞋售价,准确地说来,每双至少600英镑。The first shoes, with heels around three inches high, are expected to go on sale in the autumn.第一款鞋子的鞋跟有3英寸之高,预计在今秋开售。Ms Singh admits they will not have exactly the same feeling as #39;tennis shoes#39;, but believes women will find them dramatically more comfortable.辛格女士承认鞋子不可能穿起来完全像双;网球鞋;,但女士们会发现它们好穿得不敢想象。She said: #39;It#39;s really important for comfortable and sexy to work together.#39;她说:;舒适和性感兼得很重要。;Ms Singh formed Thesis Couture after convincing scientists to treat the #39;fluffy#39; subject as a #39;serious engineering problem#39;.辛格女士在说科学家把;消遣;的东西当作;严肃的工程问题;后造出了这款Thesis Couture鞋。#39;The key was to make it an interesting problem in their language,#39; Ms Singh said.;关键是要化为他们感兴趣的课题,;辛格女士说道。#39;Asking them to design a high heel isn#39;t interesting. But asking them to design a structure that supports a secondary structure, which is dynamic and has a 180-degree range of motion and happens to be a human body? That#39;s interesting.;要是请他们设计一双高跟鞋并不吸引他们。但是要是问他们设计一种撑第二层结构的构造、要灵动、有180度的移动范围,且撑的恰好是个人体结构?那就有意思了。#39;I had to make them see it not as a fluffy problem, but as a serious engineering problem.#39;;我得让他们认为这不是消遣的事,而是个严肃的工程问题。;Her team included British orthopaedic surgeon Andy Goldberg, a virtual reality firm and a #39;fashion technologist#39;.她的团队包括一名英国矫形外科医生安迪·戈德堡(Andy Goldberg)、一个虚拟现实公司,以及一个;时尚设计师;。The shoe#39;s structure will be made in Singapore, with its exterior crafted in Italy and Brazil.鞋子的框架将在新加坡完成,而外壳是在意大利和巴西完成。#39;I#39;ve loved high heels ever since I was young, but as I got older I began to love them less.;我年轻时就爱高跟鞋,但随着年龄增长,我就没那么喜欢穿高跟鞋了。;#39;I found myself in a position where I had two choices: I could either downgrade my shoes and have uglier shoes, or I could keep wearing my really pretty shoes and I would end up with ugly, deformed feet.;我觉得我有两个选择:要么选择矮跟的丑鞋,要么继续穿美美的鞋,然后有一双丑陋变形的脚。;#39;It got to a point that this became an important enough problem in my life where I thought don#39;t complain, do something.;我后来意识到这是我人生中的一个重要问题,不能只抱怨,要有解决方法。;#39;Millions of women for hundreds of years have been wearing the same crappy internal architecture for a long time, so it takes an outside force to prioritise and say actually consumers will reward this and will think it#39;s important if we create it.#39;;数百万女性们几百年来长期穿着一样蹩脚的内部构造,因此需要外力的推动才能让人们重视这个问题。如果我们造出了这样的鞋子,顾客们会真心感激的。;The skeleton of the shoes are due to be manufactured in Singapore and the fashionable outer skin made in Italy and Brazil.鞋子的框架将在新加坡制造,而时尚的外观会在意大利和巴西完成。Initially, 1,500 limited edition pairs will be sold in the autumn for 610, with each numbered and signed by a guest fashion designer.在意大利,1500双限量版高跟鞋将在今年秋天发售,售价为610英镑。每双鞋子都有编号,上面还有一名时尚设计顾问的签名。A few dozen pairs will also be sent to celebrities and VIPs.数十双鞋将会被送到名人和贵宾手中。Ms Singh said, following the launch, the shoes will be marketed at professional women and pairs will cost between 200 and 600 each.辛格女士说,首发之后,鞋子将针对职业女性进行营销。每双售价为200至600英镑。But her ultimate goal is to license the company#39;s technology to other brands.但她的终极目标是让公司的这项技术推广到其它牌子。#39;Five years from now I want every high heel on the face of the Earth to be made the way we make them,#39; Ms Singh said.;五年后,我想让地球上所有高跟鞋都按照我们的方式制造。;辛格女士说道。 /201505/373878

No one doubts the value of confidence. In fact, research shows people often prefer confidence over actual expertise。自信的价值毋庸置疑。事实上,研究显示人们看重自信更甚于实际能力。G. Richard Shell teaches at the Wharton School and his book Springboard: Launching Your Personal Search for Success, out in paperback this week, has a great chapter on how to be more confident。理查·谢尔现任教于沃顿商学院 ,他著作的《跳板:启动你的个人成功搜索》一书的平装版于本周与读者见面,书中有很精的一章内容是关于如何变得更加自信。Here’s what you need to know。以下是大家需要知道的。1. Surround Yourself With People Who Believe in You1. 和相信你的人一起I’ve posted a lot about how the power of context can improve behavior. And people are a part of that。我发过很多关于环境的力量如何提升行为的论述。而人,也是这环境的一部分。When you’re told you’re good by someone you respect, you believe it. Partially it’s a placebo effect. But that’s perfectly fine。当你尊敬的人告诉你你很棒的时候,你会相信他。部分地讲,这也是一种安慰效应。但这种感觉真的很棒。This creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. When you believe you can do it, you work harder. When others believe in you, they push you harder。这就创造了一个自我实现的预言。当你相信自己可以的时候,你会更加努力。当别人相信你的时候,他们会更尽力地推动你前进。Together, these things make you do better — so you have a reason to be confident. And then next time, confidence comes easier。所有因素一起作用都会让你做得更好—所以你有理由变得自信。然后下一次,自信来得更加容易。Via Springboard: Launching Your Personal Search for Success:以下来自于《跳板:启动你的个人成功搜索》:The phenomenon of transferred expectations, also called a “self-fulfilling prophecy,” occurs for a combination of two reasons. The person holding the expectation treats the other person differently, giving him or her more challenging work to do. This leads to more learning. At the same time, the person receiving the suggestion accepts it as an accurate assessment of his or her ability, and that in turn increases the level of effort the person gives。期望传递,也被称为“自我实现的预言”。这种现象的产生是由两个原因共同引起的。心怀期望的人对待其他人的方式是不同的,他会给其他人更有挑战性的工作,从而让人可以学到更多。与此同时,接受工作建议的人会将这看作对自己能力的准确评估,反过来也会付出更多努力。The lesson here is plain: you should understand the power of being in a high-performing/ high-expectation social environment versus a low-performing/ low-expectation one. Your social setting can strongly affect what you believe is possible— and that will affect your confidence, the effort you expend, and the results you achieve。其中的道理很直白:要懂得高表现/高期望的环境与低表现、低期望相比所能赋予的能量。你所处的社交环境会很强烈地影响你的信念—而信念会影响你的自信,你付出的努力,和你获得的成果。2. Focus On Learning2. 专注于成长When you focus on learning, failure is just a part of the process and won’t shake your confidence。当你集中注意力在学习上时,失败只是过程的一部分,不会动摇你的自信。Tests are not a gauge of self-worth or unchangeable, innate ability. They’re a measure of how much improvement you’ve made。测试不是对自我价值或者固有天赋的评估,而是对你的进步的估量。Building on the research of Carol Dweck, you want to have a “growth mindset”: Measure yourself by effort, not by results。根据卡罗尔·德伟克的研究,你需要有一个“成长的心态”:用付出去评估自己,而不是用结果。Via Springboard: Launching Your Personal Search for Success:以下来自于《跳板:启动你的个人成功搜索》:…repeated experiments have demonstrated the value of praising effort rather than innate talent. If you are praised by others in the right way, this can lead you to praise yourself based on your genuine effort when you accomplish something significant and discount comments about the role of your natural ability. You should ignore any result— good or bad— that comes after you put in only a halfhearted effort. And you should be proud of any result that follows hard work— even when the result is not what you had hoped…。诸多实验反复实了肯定付出的努力而不是天赋这一做法的价值。如果其他人以正确的方式表扬你,这也会引导你在有了重大成就的时候肯定自己真实的努力,更少地去在乎他人对于你的天赋所起作用的评价。如果只是三心二意地付出了,那么你应该忽略由此带来的任何结果—无论是好是坏。而且对于努力付出后的任何结果,哪怕不是当初所希望的……你都应该为之自豪。3. Create A Ritual3. 开创让自己进入状态的仪式What gets you in the zone? What gets you feeling y? A cup of coffee? Preparation and review? Playing a game on your phone?什么能让你进入状态?什么能让你准备就绪?一杯咖啡?准备和回顾?手机上玩个游戏?Recent research from Harvard professors Michael Norton and Francesca Gino shows that rituals have the power to make you more confident。哈佛教授迈克尔·诺顿和弗兰切斯卡·吉诺的近期研究显示:固定的仪式有让人更加自信的力量。Francesca explained in my interview with her:弗兰切斯卡在我对她的采访中解释到:What we studied in this project was whether these rituals are really of beneficial effect in terms of bringing you confidence and potentially impacting your performance positively. That is actually what we found. What is interesting about the studies is that we also have physiological measures. What we find is that if you engage in a ritual prior to a potentially high anxiety task, like singing in public or solving difficult math problems, you end up being calmer by the time you approach the task, and more confident in what you’re about to do. As a result of that, you actually perform better。在这个项目中,我们研究的是这些让人进入状态的仪式是否真正有益于培养自信和积极地影响你的表现。而这正是我们所发现的。研究中很有趣的一点在于我们也有生理上的估量指标。我们发现如果你之前有参与让自己进入状态的仪式,那么在做类似在大众面前唱歌或者解决数学难题这种会让人产生潜在焦虑的事情的时候,你会更加冷静,对自己要做的事情也会更加自信。因为这样,你实际上也会做得更出色。4. Accumulate Small Wins4. 积累点滴的成功Some Olympic athletes train in a way that is designed to build confidence。有些奥林匹克运动员的训练过程也是设计成培养自信的模式。Rather than focusing on the gold medal, they set smaller achievable goals and build from there。他们不把目标集中在金牌上,而是设定更小的能够达成的目标,从小目标开始努力。By seeing themselves accumulate these little wins, their confidence grows and grows until they feel unstoppable。看着自己一点一滴地积累达成小目标的成功,他们会越来越自信,直到有了无可抵挡的感觉。Via Springboard: Launching Your Personal Search for Success:以下来自于《跳板:启动你的个人成功搜索》:In one of the best articles on Olympic training I have ever , Daniel Chambliss tracked the techniques used by USA Swimming to get its athletes y to compete in the Olympic games. One of the common ths in this training was to focus on a series of “small wins” in training rather than on the larger goal of winning a medal. As Chambliss summarized it, the swimmers “found their challenges in small things: working on a better start this week, polishing up their backstroke technique next week, planning how to pace their swim。” As a result, they got the satisfaction of “very definable, minor achievements,” which in turn gave them the confidence to attempt more small wins each and every day。在我读过的关于奥运训练最好的文章之一中,丹尼尔·钱布利斯对美国奥运游泳项目的训练方式进行了追踪。其中一个常见的训练要素就是集中注意在一系列“点滴的成功”,而不是赢得金牌的大目标。如钱布利斯所总结的,游泳运动员们“在细小的事情上发现挑战:这周有一个更好的开始,下周完善自己的仰泳技巧,计划着怎样有条不紊地游。”这样一来,他们在“非常明确的,点滴的成就”中感到满足,从而让他们每天都自信地去尝试积累更多点滴的成功。5. It’s Rational To Do The Irrational5. 即使看似毫无理性,也放手去做This is a very rational blog. You, however, are not a very rational creature. So do what works, even if it seems irrational。这是一个理性说理的客。而人本身,却不是非常理性的生物。所以,尽管看似毫无理性,但只要有用,就放手去做。Research shows good luck charms do inspire confidence. And this improves performance on a variety of tasks。研究表明幸运符的确可以激发自信,且在很多不同的活动中都能提升表现。Via The Courage Quotient: How Science Can Make You Braver:以下来自于《胆商:科学如何让你更勇敢》:The researchers found that by activating good luck beliefs, these objects were consistently able to boost people’s self-confidence and that this up-tick in self-assurance in turn affected a wide range of performance. Lucky thinking, it turned out in this study, positively affected people’s ability to solve puzzles and to remember the pictures depicted on thirty-six different cards, and it improved their putting performance in golf! In fact, people with a lucky charm performed significantly better than did the people who had none. That’s right, having a lucky charm will make you a better golfer, should you care about such things, and improve your cognitive performance on tasks such as memory games。研究人员发现,一旦激发人们对幸运符带来好运的信念,这些幸运符便能够长久地激发人的自信,而这种对积极的自我肯定反过来也能影响很多方面的表现。研究表明,这种基于幸运的思维方式,能够积极地影响人们在猜谜,记忆36个不同图片的卡片,以及打高尔夫球时推杆的能力。实际上,有幸运符的人们比没有任何幸运符的人们表现明显更棒。就是这样噢,如果你在意幸运符一类的东西的话,它确实会让你高尔夫打得更好,还能提升你在诸如记忆游戏等活动中的认知表现。6. Get To Work6. 努力去建立自信Yes, some people are naturally superconfident. Others fake it。是的,有些人生来超级自信,其他人则需要假装。And you can, with some work, build confidence。而且,做些努力,你可以建立自信。What did Alfred Binet, the inventor of the IQ test, say about intelligence?智商测试的发明者阿尔弗雷德·比奈,对于智力讲过什么呢?Via Springboard: Launching Your Personal Search for Success:以下来自于《跳板:启动你的个人成功搜索》:It is not always the people who start out the smartest who end up the smartest。最后智力超群的人,并不总是开始时候的那些聪明人。The same is true of confidence。自信也是如此。 /201506/381761

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