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2019年08月24日 00:35:18来源:69对话

  • Early sales of Apple’s new iPhones have lived up to high expectations.苹果(Apple)新款iPhone的初期销售没有辜负人们的厚望。The company on Monday said it sold more than 10 million of the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus models in the first three days they were available in stores. That is higher than the nine million new iPhones it sold last year in their first weekend on sale.公司在周一称,iPhone 6和6 Plus在进入门店销售的前三天里销量超过了1000万台。这个数字比去年的新款iPhone首周末销量900万台还要高。The phones’ larger screens — 4.7 diagonal inches for the 6 and 5.5 for the 6 Plus — are a considerable jump from the 4-inch screens of earlier iPhones.手机的屏幕——6为4.7寸、6 Plus为5.5寸——较旧版的4寸屏要大出许多。The iPhone sales were on the upper end of financial analysts’ expectations, which ranged from 6.5 million to the “low teens” of millions of sales.金融分析师对iPhone销量的预测在650万台到“1000万台出头”之间,所以实际销量已经达到了预测的上限。The strong sales mirror growing consumer demand for smartphones with bigger screens. IDC, a research firm, estimated that at least 20 percent of all smartphones shipped last year in China, the largest smartphone market in the world, were five inches or larger. It also predicted that manufacturers this year would ship more “phablets,” or smartphones with screens measuring at least 5.5 diagonal inches, than laptops.强劲的销售反映了消费者对大屏智能手机的需求增长。据研究机构IDC估计,去年在全球最大的智能手机市场中国,智能手机总出货量中有至少20%的屏幕在5英寸以上。该机构还预测,生产商今年的“平板手机”(phablet)——也就是屏幕在5.5寸以上的智能手机——出货量将超过手提电脑。Some analysts even estimated that the larger iPhone 6 Plus was more popular with consumers over the weekend.一些分析师甚至估计在周末的销售中,屏幕更大的iPhone 6 Plus更受消费者青睐。“The iPhone 6 Plus demand is very strong. They’re basically sold out everywhere we checked,” said Maynard Um, a senior research analyst for Wells Fargo. “But the iPhone 6 didn’t look to be fully sold out. That’s hard to tell if it’s because Apple has a lot of supply out there, or it’s because there’s less demand for it compared to the iPhone 6 Plus.”“IPhone 6 Plus的需求非常旺盛。基本上我们看过的地方都已经断货,”富国(Wells Fargo)高级研究分析师梅纳德·乌姆(Maynard Um)说。“但iPhone 6看起来还没有完全售空。很难说这是不是因为苹果的供货量很大,还是它相比iPhone 6 Plus的需求比较小。”Apple’s investors — much like Hollywood producers tracking the first few days of ticket sales for a blockbuster movie — closely watch first-weekend sales for the iPhone because they are a reflection of consumer demand. The iPhone is still Apple’s biggest cash cow, accounting for about 70 percent of its profit. So early sales can help predict quarterly or even annual results for the company, based in Cupertino, Calif.和跟踪观察某部大片上映最初几天票房的好莱坞制片人一样,苹果的投资人在密切关注iPhone的首周末销量,因为这是消费者需求的一种反映。iPhone至今仍是苹果最大的赚钱机器,其大约70%的利润来自于此。因此早期的销售情况可以预示这家加州库珀蒂诺公司的季度甚至年度业绩。But some analysts, like Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, wondered whether first-weekend sales were still a reliable measure for consumer demand. The iPhone is aly immensely popular in many countries, he noted before the announcement, so early sales may be more of a sign of how many iPhones can initially be produced by Apple and its manufacturing partners.但是有一些分析师在质疑,首周末销量是否依然是一个可靠的消费者需求衡量手段,比如派杰(Piper Jaffray)的基尼·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)。他提出在宣布消息前,iPhone在许多国家已经极为抢手,所以早期的销售额可能更多反映了苹果及其制造合作伙伴在一开始能有多少产量。“The first weekend iPhone sales number continues to be more about how much Apple can supply than what the demand is in the market,” said Walter Piecyk, managing director at BTIG Research, an industry firm.“首周末iPhone销量的重点始终是苹果的供货量,而不是市场的需求,”产业机构BTIG研究公司(BTIG Research)的执行董事沃尔特·皮西科(Walter Piecyk)说。Timothy D. Cook, Apple’s chief executive, said as much on Monday.苹果首席执行官蒂莫西·D·库克(Timothy D. Cook)在周一也说了类似的话。Apple “could have sold many more iPhones with greater supply, and we are working hard to fill orders as quickly as possible,” he said in a statement.他在声明中说,苹果“如果有更大的供应,就应该能卖出更多的iPhone,我们都在努力想办法尽快交付订单。”The latest iPhones also missed out on a big market: China. Apple has delayed the release of the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus there, apparently because the devices have not yet received approval from Chinese regulators.最新款iPhone还错过了一个大市场:中国。苹果推迟了iPhone 6和6 Plus在那里的销售,原因看起来是这些设备还没有得到中国监管机构的核准。Despite missing out on hundreds of millions of potential Chinese customers, Apple impressed analysts with its weekend performance.虽然失去了数以百万计的潜在中国顾客,苹果在首周末的表现依然让分析人士啧啧称羡。“Even without China, Apple was able to move .5 billion of product in three days which would be impressive for any industry,” Mr. Piecyk said.“在没有中国的情况下,苹果可以在三天里卖掉65亿美元的产品,这放在任何产业都是很了不起的,”皮西科说。The introduction of the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus on Friday was the second time Apple released two new iPhones at the same time. Last year, Apple introduced the iPhone 5S along with the iPhone 5C, a colorful plastic model sold at a lower price.在周五推出的iPhone 6和6 Plus是苹果第二次同时发售两款新iPhone。去年苹果在介绍iPhone 5S的同时,还推出了售价较低的色塑料型号iPhone 5C。Apple is treating the iPhone 5C differently than past iPhones. Traditionally, Apple has upgraded each iPhone once a year, with improvements like faster chips and better cameras. But this month, instead of announcing an upgrade for the iPhone 5C, Apple said it would continue to sell the exact same iPhone, but for a lower cost: free with a contract.苹果在iPhone 5C上使用的策略和以往的iPhone不同。按照惯例每款iPhone是一年升级一次的,会配备更快的芯片和更好的摄像头。但这个月,苹果没有宣布iPhone 5C的升级,手机本身毫无变化,只是售价更低:合约机免费。Analysts say that it appears Apple’s strategy all along for the iPhone 5C was to sell an older, plastic iPhone over a longer time period to allow the costs of production and components to drop. That lets Apple decrease the price of the plastic iPhone and increase market share in less affluent markets.分析人士称,看起来这从一开始就是苹果对iPhone 5C的策略:在相对较长的时间里出售一种老款的、塑料的iPhone,从而降低生产和零件的成本。这样一来,苹果可以降低塑料iPhone的价格,在没那么富裕的市场获得更多份额。 /201409/331636。
  • Apple called BS last week to the U.S. Mac sales numbers IDC and Gartner sent to clients two weeks earlier, AppleInsider‘s Daniel Eran Dilger reported Saturday. The two market research firms had sales falling. Apple had them growing by “strong double digits[s],” according to the earnings call transcript [see note below].据AppleInsider网站的丹尼尔·伊兰·迪尔格上周六报道,苹果(Apple)在上上周指出,IDC与高德纳(Gartner)给出的Mac电脑在美国的销售数字有误。这两家市场调研公司称,Mac电脑在美销售出现下滑,而苹果收益电话会议的文字记录显示,公司称Mac电脑在美销售增长强劲,“增幅高达两位数”。It’s not the first time Gartner and IDC have been caught with their methodological pants down. In November 2010 Asymco’s Horace Dediu was aghast to discover a 77 million unit discrepancy in their mobile phone data — data he depends on to draw his famous charts and graphs.这不是高德纳和IDC第一次被人发现方法论错误。2010年11月,Asymco的贺拉斯o德迪乌惊讶的发现,两者的移动电话销量数据差额高达7700万台,而德迪乌著名的图表正是基于该数据绘制。“Our methodologies, which are continually updated and improved, are among our most valuable assets,” according to Gartner, which goes on to describe them in the vaguest possible terms:高德纳称:“我们的方法论在不断更新和完善,它是我们最宝贵的财富之一。”该公司继续极为含糊其辞的描述道:“Once an objective is set, analysts gather information through formal and informal surveys of IT users, technology providers and investors, business professionals, academicians and other researchers.” [From Inside Gartner Research]“一旦目标设定,分析师会通过向IT用户、技术提供商和投资者、商务人士、学者和其他研究人员发放正式或非正式的调查来收集信息。”[摘自“高德纳内部研究”]It’s even squishier than that, according to a former IDC researcher who spent eight years with the company in the late 1990s and early 2000s.而据一名IDC公司的前研究员称,销售预测比上面说的更不可靠。该研究员曾于20世纪90年代末至21世纪初在IDC工作了八年。After I posted a story about the 77 million missing phones, he described in some detail how IDC goes about estimating sales.我发布了一篇关于“移动电话销量数据相差7700万台”的文章后,这名研究员给我透露了一些IDC公司如何进行销量预测的细节。According to my source, who for legal reasons asked that his name not be used, here’s how it worked:出于法律方面的考虑,这位线人要求匿名。他的讲述如下:“Philip, I know something about this sausage-making process, as I used to do it for IDC. In 3Q98, I did a cross-section, an excavation, if you like, of our methodology, putting a crowbar to it and snapping it into fragments. It was the PC count, but the methodology is the same for phones.“菲利普,我曾在IDC公司从事销量预测,所以对其中的肮脏内幕有所了解。1998年第3季度,我对公司的方法论进行了一番深入挖掘。尽管我做的调查是有关个人电脑销量预测,但手机销量预测的方法论是一样的。 ”“In most quarters, the team starts with OEM guidance and, depending on the country, does some by-country cross-checking. However, for the US team, we just did some systematic adjustments to the vendor guidance and called it a day. For example, we knew that lots of Macs were transshipped from Miami to Latin America. So, we took some percentage of Macs (Apple, of course, never helped; in fact, even objected, saying it wasn’t so) and reallocated them from the US to a smattering of Latin countries, effectively modeling the market but with no low-level data.“在大部分季度,团队先以原始设备制造商的销量指引为基础,并根据国家的不同,按国别进行交叉检验。然而,对于美国市场,我们只对供应商的销量指引做些系统性的调整就算完事。比如,我们知道许多Mac电脑是通过迈阿密转运到拉丁美洲的。因此,我们将美国市场的Mac电脑销量减去一定比例(当然,苹果从来没有帮过忙;事实上该公司甚至反对这种做法,称实情并非如此),由此得出来的销量就被安在几个拉美国家头上。这有效地模拟了市场状况,但缺乏底层数据持。”“So, in 3Q98, I analyzed the ‘choke points,’ those parts of the supply chain where the channel narrowed enough to get a definitive count. At the time, it was OS, processor, graphics, and hard drive. As I recall, I found 20 million processors with no homes. The market at the time was about 100 million, so this was a 20% discrepancy.“因此,在1998年第3季度,我分析了‘瓶颈’,即供应链中渠道窄到足以得到最终数字的部分。当时,“瓶颈”是操作系统、处理器、显卡和硬盘驱动器。我记得,我发现多出了2000万台处理器销量。而当时的市场容量大概是1亿台,所以差额高达20%。”“The process that ensued was a marvel of obfuscation. The leader of the Tracker team figured out a way to rationalize away all the extra units (e.g., multiprocessor servers, inventory, speculation, etc.). It was politically impossible to force the extra units on the regions because it would introduce gross distortions to the historical trends.“随后发生的事情简直堪称蒙混过关的典范。Tracker小组的组长想出了办法,让所有多出的处理器销量变得名正言顺(比如多处理器务器、库存、投机炒作等)。但多出的销量强加到这些类目上会有大问题,因为这将严重扭曲历史趋势。 ”“So, the mantra became, preserve the growth rates; to hell with the actual numbers. Even the growth rates are fiction. The fudge is in the “others” category, which is used as a plug to make the numbers work out. In fairness, we did do survey work, calling around, and attending white box conferences and venues to try to get a feel for that market, but in the end, the process was political. I used to tell customers which parts of the data they could trust, essentially the major vendors by form factor and region. The rest was garbage.“所以,最后就成了保留增速数据,别管实际数字。而即便增长率数据其实也是瞎编。关键在于“其它”类目,每当有平不了的数据就往“其它”里塞。平心而论,我们确实做了调查工作,四处打电话,参加白盒测试会议与聚会,试图感受市场情况,但说到底,整个过程并不靠谱。我曾告诉客户他们能信任哪部分数据,基本上也就是各大厂商的形状因素和地区数据。其它数据都是垃圾。”“The industry itself was aware of these issues, but agreed to maintain the fiction because it was convenient. Most vendors kept their own numbers, but referred to IDC for public purposes. Thing is, real executives got real compensation based on our numbers. There were other games played, but that’s for another time.“该行业本身意识到了这些问题,但选择了继续瞎编,因为这太省事了。大多数供应商自己统计了相关数据,但在公开场合都使用IDC公司给出的数字。关键就在于,那些高管们获得的薪酬是基于我们给出的销售数字。这里头还有其它一些把戏,不过这些下次再说吧。”“The question always came down to, are these fiduciary numbers that investment managers charged with keeping money for widows and orphans rely on, or are they just inside baseball for the industry to squabble over and not all that important? That question has never been answered.”“问题最终归结为,这些预测数据到底是那些为孤儿寡母理财的投资经理们进行投资决策的依据,还是只是行业内部自说自话的产物,根本无足轻重?这个问题一直没有。”[Note: The language Apple CFO Luca Maestri used in his prepared remarks -- ;We achieved strong double digit Mac growth across many countries, including the U.S., Canada, Mexico, the UK, Germany, France, Australia, China, India and the Middle-East; -- is open to interpretation. Does the growth rate apply to the set of countries listed, or to every element in the set?[注:在事先准备的发言中,苹果首席财务官卢卡o马斯特利的原话是:“Mac销量在许多国家实现了强劲的两位数增长,包括美国、加拿大、墨西哥、英国、德国、法国、澳大利亚、中国、印度以及中东。”这句话可以有不同的解释。马斯特利所说的两位数增长,是指上述所有国家的Mac总销量,还是指在以上各个国家的销量?Apple spokesman Steve Dowling confirmed Monday that the growth was double digit (i.e. 10% or more) in each of those markets.]苹果发言人史蒂夫·道林本周一实,Mac销量在上述各市场都实现了两位数增长(即增长率达到10%或10%以上)。] /201407/316469。
  • China#39;s Huawei Technologies Co. said its smartphone shipments rose 62% in the first half of this year, helped by strong demand in overseas markets such as Latin America and the Middle East for new handsets that work on faster-speed networks.华为技术有限公司(Huawei Technologies Co., 简称:华为)称,上半年公司智能手机发货量增长62%,得益于拉美和中东等海外市场的强劲需求。这些市场对能够在更快网络上运行的新智能手机需求旺盛。The first-half results make Huawei one of the fastest-growing players in the global smartphone market. Earlier this month, market leader Samsung Electronics Co. said it expected a decline in operating profit in the second quarter due to sluggish smartphone sales.上半年的良好表现也使得华为成为全球智能手机市场上增长最快的公司之一。本月早些时候该领域领头羊三星电子(Samsung Electronics Co.)表示,受智能手机销售低迷拖累,预计第二季度营业利润将出现下滑。Huawei shipped 34.27 million smartphones world-wide in the six months through June, the company said Tuesday. Growth accelerated in the second quarter, when it shipped 20.56 million smartphones, the company said.华为周二宣布,今年前六个月公司向全球市场的智能手机发货量达到3,427万部,其中第二季度增速加快,发货量为2,056万部。While China#39;s smartphone market--the largest for Huawei#39;s handset business--is showing signs of slower growth, Huawei is expanding rapidly in emerging markets abroad. The company said its smartphone shipments in the Middle East and Africa increased more than sixfold from a year earlier, while shipments in Latin America rose nearly fourfold. In Europe and the Asian-Pacific region, excluding China, shipments more than doubled, it said.虽然华为手持设备的第一大市场中国智能手机市场增速放慢,但该公司在其他新兴市场正迅速扩张。华为称其中东和非洲智能手机销量同比增长超过五倍,而拉美增长近三倍。该公司还表示,在欧洲和不包括中国的亚太地区,智能手机销量增长超过一倍。To make its name more recognized by consumers abroad, Huawei has been spending more on international marketing, mainly through sponsorship deals with professional soccer teams in Europe, such as the U.K.#39;s Arsenal Football Club and Italy#39;s AC Milan.为提高其品牌在海外消费者中的知名度,华为一直在扩大国际营销出,主要是通过与欧洲的职业足球队签订赞助协议,比如英国的阿森纳足球俱乐部和意大利的AC米兰足球俱乐部。Huawei said it is also trying to sell more mid- to high-end smartphones, rather than selling the cheapest phones on the market. In May, Huawei launched its new flagship smartphone, the Ascend P7, which comes with a 5-inch screen and a camera feature designed specifically for taking group self-portraits. On Tuesday, Huawei said it has sold nearly two million units of the Ascend P7 so far.华为表示,该公司也在试图销售更多的中高端智能手机,而不是销售市场上最便宜的手机。今年5月,华为推出了新款旗舰智能手机Ascend P7,这款手机配有5英寸屏幕和专为集体自拍设计的照相功能。华为周二表示,该公司目前为止已经销售了近200万部Ascend P7。Shenzhen-based Huawei, whose main business is selling telecommunications equipment to carriers, is trying to sell more handsets to challenge the dominance of Samsung and Apple Inc. Even though Huawei was the world#39;s third-largest smartphone vendor in the first quarter, according to research firm IDC, its market share of 5% was still far behind those of Samsung and Apple. In China, the world#39;s largest smartphone market, Huawei faces tough competition not only from Samsung and Apple but from other Chinese handset vendors such as Lenovo Group Ltd. and Xiaomi Inc.总部位于深圳的华为主要业务是向运营商销售电信设备。目前该公司正试图销售更多的手机以挑战三星和苹果(Apple Inc.)的主导地位。研究公司国际数据公司(IDC)的数据显示,今年第一季度华为是全球第三大智能手机销售商,但其5%的市场份额仍远不及三星和苹果。在全球最大的智能手机市场中国,华为不仅面临来自三星和苹果的激烈竞争,还面临来自联想集团(Lenovo Group)和小米(Xiaomi Inc.)等中国手机销售商的竞争。Earlier this month, Richard Yu, the head of Huawei#39;s consumer business group, said in an internal memo that revenue for his group, which mainly sells smartphones, rose 30% in the first half of this year. In the memo, viewed by The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Yu also said that his group by midyear had aly achieved more than half of its 2014 profit target. Huawei has said previously that its smartphone business is profitable, but it hasn#39;t disclosed specific figures.本月早些时候,华为消费者业务集团负责人余承东(Richard Yu)在一份内部备忘录中说,今年上半年该集团收入增长30%。该集团主要销售智能手机。余承东在备忘录中还说,他所在的集团年中前已完成2014年利润目标的一半以上。《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)看过这份备忘录。华为此前说,其智能手机业务是盈利的,但一直没有披露具体数字。 /201407/316192。
  • With Samsung chairman Lee Kun-hee, 72, still uncnscius in Samsung Medical Center, attentin in the Suth Krean media has shifted t his likely successr. Lee inherited the cmpany frm his father and ne f his kin will inherit it frm him.72岁的三星(Samsung)董事长李健熙眼下仍然在三星医疗中心(Samsung Medical Center)昏迷不醒,韩国媒体已经将注意力转移到了他潜在的继任者身上。李健熙从父亲那里继承了三星公司。现在,他的一位亲属将从他手中接过领导公司的重担。The cast f characters, frm left:下面是李氏家族的成员名单,对应上图从左至右分别是:Lee B-jin: First daughter and president f the Shilla Htel chain, a Samsung subsidiary.李富真:长女,三星子公司新罗酒店(Shilla Htel chain)总裁。Hng Ra-hee: Wife and directr f the Samsung Art Museum.洪罗喜:妻子,三星艺术物馆(Samsung Art Museum)总监。Lee Kun-hee: Patriarch and Samsung chairman.李健熙:家长,三星董事长。Lee Se-yen: Secnd daughter and president f Cheil Wrldwide (advertising and public relatins), a Samsung subsidiary.李叙显:次女,三星子公司第一企划(Cheil Wrldwide,广告与公关公司)总裁。Chi Gee-sung: N relatin. CE f Samsung Electrnics since 2009, when the trubles with Apple (AAPL) began.崔志成:无亲缘关系。自2009年起担任三星电子CE。当时,三星与苹果(Apple)的麻烦刚刚开始。Lee Jae-yng (leaning away): Sn and Samsung#39;s vice-chairman. The heir apparent.李在镕(照片中身体向外侧倾斜者):独子,三星副董事长。法定继承人。 /201405/299851。
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