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Japanese women quit to care日本女性放弃就业There is one choice that faces a growing number of women in Japan who have battled for recognition in a male-dominated business world, only to have to drop out once their parents or parents-in-law become old.越来越多的日本女性面临一个抉择:她们好不容易在男性主导的企业界获得认可,但是,当她们的父母或公婆年迈后,她们不得不放弃就业。In the five years to 2012, 486,900 Japanese quit or changed jobs to care for older family members, according to Japans statistics bureau. About 80% were women.据日本统计局提供的数据,008012年间,为了照顾家中老人,有48.69万日本人辞职或换了工作,其中成为女性。Japans society is aging fast, and an additional 2.6m pensioners are expected over the next 10 years.日本社会正快速进入老龄化,未来10年内会再增加260万养老金领取者。来 /201505/377921In 2005, when Junichiro Koizumi silenced critics in his party after winning a resounding electoral victory, many expected him to embark on a streak of deep structural reforms. Instead, after a fairly non-consequential year, he quietly bowed out of politics.2005年,当小泉纯一Junichiro Koizumi)高票赢得选举、让党内批评者无话可说时,许多人预期他将启动一系列深层次的结构改革。然而,在度过相当平淡的一年后,他黯然退出了政坛。Nearly a decade later, his one-time protégé Shinzo Abe has earned himself the possibility of four more years in power after yesterday’s poll delivered his ruling coalition a robust majority in the lower house of parliament. That could see him remaining prime minister until late-2018, edging past Mr Koizumi’s five-and-a-half years in office.将近10年后,曾经是小泉门生的安倍晋Shinzo Abe)为自己赢得了继续主政四年的可能性,昨日的选举在国会下院为他的执政联盟带来了强大多数。这可能会使他在首相职位上做018年末,略微超过小泉任职五年半的纪录。Mr Abe is also expected to double down on his economic programme a mix of fiscal and monetary stimulus as well as supply-side reforms, which has been dubbed Abenomics. Whenever he steps down, the question will be whether Abenomics has succeeded.外界还预期安倍会对他的经济计划加倍下注:这是一套财政和货币刺激、加上供应面改革的组合拳政策,有“安倍经济学Abenomics)之称。无论他在什么时候下台,问题都将是安倍经济学是否取得了成功。The verdict is likely to be less straightforward than one might think. Abenomics means different things to different people. To some, the primary goal is to dig Japan out of 15 years of deflation. “Deflation has been at least one of the major causes of Japan’s stagnation,says Masazumi Wakatabe, professor of economics at Waseda University.这个评判很可能没有人们想象的那么直截了当。安倍经济学对不同的人意味着不同的事情。一些人认为,首要目标是把日本从持续15年的通缩中拉出来。“通缩一直是日本停滞的主要原因之一,”早稻田大学(Waseda University)经济学教授若田部昌澄(Masazumi Wakatabe)表示。With gentle inflation, say these economists, the mountainous public debt, now some 240 per cent of gross domestic product, would erode against rising nominal output. Under mild inflation, they add, there would also be more incentive for consumers to spend and businesses to invest, which would help to lift growth.这些经济学家表示,如果有温和通胀,沉重的公共债务(如今已达国内生产总GDP)40%左右)将在名义产出上升的背景下逐渐减轻。他们还说,在轻度通胀条件下,消费者将有更大动力消费,企业将有更大动力投资,这将有助于提升经济增长。But to others, short-term stimulus delivered via monetary easing is merely the first, and least significant, part of Abenomics. More important are the structural reforms, part of Mr Abe’s “third arrow但对其他人来说,通过放松货币政策来提供短期刺激只是安倍经济学的第一部分,而且是最不重要的部分。安倍的“第三箭”,即结构性改革,将更为重要。Takatoshi Ito, professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, says Mr Abe has spelt out many of the needed reforms, from freeing up farming and healthcare to joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal with the US and 10 other Pacific Rim countries. “After the election he will have to spend some political capital to implement those policies,he says. That will be easier said than done.东京大学公共政策大学National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)教授伊藤隆敏(Takatoshi Ito)表示,安倍阐述了很多必要的改革,从放开农业和医疗保健,到与美国及其0个太平洋沿岸国家缔结《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定TPP)。“选举过后,他将不得不花掉一些政治资本来落实这些政策,”伊藤隆敏表示。这些事情做起来不会像说的那么容易。Many of the strongest opponents to Mr Abe’s reform push are the conservative members of his fractious Liberal Democratic party. As Tobias Harris, a Japan expert at Teneo Intelligence, points out, rather than lining up behind their premier, it is plausible that recalcitrant backbenchers, safely re-elected, will instead dig in their heels.安倍改革努力的许多最强大的反对者,是他所在的难以驾驭的自民党(LDP)的保守派成员。正如特尼欧情报公司(Teneo Intelligence)日本问题专家托拜厄斯#8226;哈里Tobias Harris)指出的那样,可以想象的是,顽固的后座议员在安全地重新当选后,非但不会齐心持他们的首相,反而会更加顽固地坚持自己的立场。Nor can Mr Abe wave a magic wand and sign the TPP. Even if he can face down national opposition, successfully concluding a deal is likely to depend more on what happens in Washington, where President Barack Obama is seeking congressional “fast-trackapproval to negotiate.安倍也无法挥动一下魔杖就签署TPP。即使他能够直面国内的反对,成功达成协定也很可能在更大程度上要取决于华盛顿发生的情况,美国总统巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)正寻求国会授予“快速通道fast-track)谈判权力。Mr Ito also argues that Mr Abe will need to put more emphasis on cutting costs and raising taxes if he is to get Japan’s fiscal house in order. “He’s good at spending, but not so good at cutting,he says of the stimulus packages and supplementary budgets that Mr Abe has championed.伊藤隆敏还认为,安倍如果要整顿日本的财政秩序,就需要更加重视减和增税。他在提及安倍倡导的刺激计划和补充预算时表示:“他擅长出,但不那么擅长削减出。”Getting the balance right will be tricky. Mr Abe has aly had to postpone a second increase in consumption tax after a rise in April throttled the recovery. Now that he is re-elected, the same problems confront him. Move too slowly with fiscal consolidation and critics will say his policies are merely short-term pump-priming. Move too quickly and his reflationary experiment might fizzle out as hard-pressed consumers snap shut their wallets.把握恰当的平衡将是非常棘手的。在4月份上调消费税扼杀了复苏势头之后,安倍已不得不推迟消费税的第二次上调。重新当选之后,他面对着同样的问题。如果他在财政整顿方面动作太慢,批评者会说,他的政策只是短期刺激。如果动作太快,随着财务紧张的消费者捂紧钱包,安倍的通货再膨胀实验可能会不了了之。When Mr Koizumi was elected, many Japanese thought they had at last found the man to dig the economy out of a hole. In the end, his policies did not outlast him. If Abenomics is to work, Mr Abe needs to go one better.小泉当选时,许多日本人以为他们终于找到了把日本经济拉出泥潭的人。最终,小泉的政策随着他下台而草草收场。要使安倍经济学奏效,安倍就需要做得更漂亮。来 /201412/348797At the beginning of this year, Angela Merkelhad a good claim to be the most successful politician in the world. The German chancellor had won three successive election victories. She was the dominant political figure in Europe and hugely popular at home.今年初,安格拉默克尔(Angela Merkel)有很好的理由号称世界上最成功的政界人士。这位德国总理已连续三次胜选。她是欧洲最具影响力的政治人物,在国内也广受欢迎。But the refugee crisis that has broken over Germany is likely to spell the end of the Merkel era. With the country in line to receive more than a million asylum-seekers this year alone, public anxiety is mounting and so is criticism of Ms Merkel, from within her own party. Some of her close political allies acknowledge that it is now distinctly possible that the chancellor will have to leave office, before the next general election in 2017. Even if she sees out a full term, the notion of a fourth Merkel administration, widely discussed a few months ago, now seems improbable.然而,冲向德国的难民危机很可能预示着默克尔时代的终结。由于仅今年就要接收超过100万寻求庇护者,德国公众的焦虑情绪正在上升,党内对默克尔的批评也越来越多。几位与她关系密切的政治盟友承认,现在看来很有可能的是默克尔不得不在2017年下届大选前下台。即使她做完这一任期,几个月前还被广泛讨论的第四届默克尔政府如今看来已不太可胀?In some ways, all this is deeply unfair. Ms Merkel did not cause the Syrian civil war, or the troubles of Eritrea or Afghanistan. Her response to the plight of the millions of refugees displaced by conflict has been bold and compassionate. The chancellor has tried to live up to the best traditions of postwar Germany including respect for human-rights and a determination to abide by international legal obligations.从某些方面看,这一切对默克尔非常不公。叙利亚内战、厄立特里亚或阿富汗的困境并非默克尔造成。她对数百万因冲突而流离失所的难民的回应是大胆而富有同情心的。默克尔已尽力保持了战后德国最优秀的传统包括尊重人权以及坚定遵守国际法律义务。The trouble is that Ms Merkel’s government has clearly lost control of the situation. German officials publicly endorse the chancellor’s declaration that “We can do this But there is panic just beneath the surface: costs are mounting, social services are creaking, Ms Merkel’s poll ratings are falling and far-right violence is on the rise. Der Spiegel, a news magazine, wrote this week that: “Germany these days is a place where people feel entirely uninhibited about expressing their hatred and xenophobia.”问题是默克尔政府显然已经失去了对局势的控制。虽然德国官员公开持总理的声明“我们可以做到”,但表面之下隐藏着恐慌:开越来越大,社会务体系不堪重负,默克尔的民意持率正在下滑,而极右暴力事件正在增多。德国新闻杂志《明镜周刊Der Spiegel)本周写道:“今天的德国已变成一个人们感觉可以完全不受约束地发泄仇恨和排外情绪的地方。”As the placid surface of German society is disturbed, so arguments about the positive economic and demographic impact of immigration are losing their impact. Instead, fears about the long-term social and political effect of taking in so many newcomers particularly from the imploding Middle East are gaining ground. Meanwhile, refugees are still heading into Germany at a rate of around 10,000 a day. (By contrast, Britain is volunteering to accept 20,000 Syrian refugees over four years.)随着德国社会表面的平静被打破,移民对经济和人口结构带来积极影响的观点正在失去市场。相反,对收容如此多的新来者尤其是来自正在内爆的中东的人带来的长期社会和政治影响的担忧正在加剧。与此同时,难民仍在以每天约1万人的速度涌入德国。(相比之下,英国愿意在4年期间收万名叙利亚难民。)It is all such a contrast with the calm and control that Ms Merkel used to radiate, captured by her nickname Mutti (or “mum. Throughout 2014, as Ms Merkel led Europe’s response to the eurozone crisis and Russia’s annexation of Crimea, German voters seemed more inclined than ever to place their faith in the judgment of the chancellor.这与默克尔曾经展示出的镇定与控制体现在她的绰号“妈妈Mutti)上形成鲜明对比014年期间,随着默克尔领导欧洲应对欧元区危机以及俄罗斯对克里米亚的吞并,德国选民似乎比以往任何时候都更倾向于相信这位总理的判断。The refugee crisis, however, revealed another side to Ms Merkel. Some voters seem to have concluded that Mutti has gone mad flinging open Germany’s borders to the wretched of the earth.然而,难民危机展示了默克尔的另一面。一些选民似乎已经得出结论:妈妈已经疯了,她向全球的可怜人敞开了德国的边界。That, of course, is a major oversimplification. Germany’s decision last month not to return Syrian asylum-seekers to the first safe country they had entered was, in part, just a pragmatic acknowledgment that such a policy was no longer practical. Nonetheless, Ms Merkel was widely seen as having announced an “open door That impression persists, making Germany (along with Sweden) the EU country of choice for asylum seekers.当然,这是一种严重过于简单化的描述。德国上月决定不将叙利亚寻求庇护者遣返回他们进入的第一个安全国家,这在一定某种程度上只是务实地承认,这样的政策已不再可行。尽管如此,默克尔还是被广泛视为宣布了“开放边界”政策。这种印象挥之不去,使德国(连同瑞典)成为寻求庇护者首选的欧盟国家。The only way to turn this situation around quickly would be to build border fences of the kind that the Hungarian government of Viktor Orban has constructed. Some German conservatives are now calling for precisely such measures. But Ms Merkel is highly unlikely to embrace the Orban option. She knows that such a policy could sound the death knell for free movement of people within the EU, and would also seriously destabilise the Balkans by bottling up refugees there.迅速扭转这一局面的唯一途径,是在边境架起维克托欧尔Viktor Orban)领导的匈牙利政府所建的那种带刺铁丝网。德国一些保守派人士现在正在呼吁采取此类措施。但默克尔极不可能采用欧尔班的作法。她知道,这样的政策将为欧盟内部人口的自由流动敲响丧钟,也会将难民困在巴尔干半岛地区,从而严重破坏那里的稳定。Instead, Ms Merkel wants an EU-wide solution. But German plans for a compulsory mechanism to share out refugees across the EU and for an emergency fund to share the costs are encountering stiff resistance. As a result, Germany’s relations with its EU partners, aly strained by the eurozone crisis, are worsening. The election of an anti-migrant government in Poland this weekend will not help.相反,默克尔希望拿出一项欧盟范围内的解决方案。但德国提出在欧盟各国分配难民的强制机制(以及一个分摊成本的应急基金)的计划遭遇了强烈的抵制。结果是,德国与欧盟伙伴之间本来就因欧元区危机而变得紧张的关系正在恶化。上周末反移民政府在波兰上台,将使情况变得更糟。Could Ms Merkel still turn the situation around? If the German government gets lucky, the coming of winter will slow the flow of refugees, providing a breathing space to organise the reception of asylum seekers and to come up with new arrangements with transit countries, particularly Turkey.默克尔还能扭转局势吗?如果德国政府幸运的话,冬天的到来将减缓难民流入,可以为安排收容寻求庇护者,并与难民过境国家(尤其是土耳其)一起制定新的安排提供喘息空间。Should the chancellor regain control of the situation it remains possible that in 20 yearstime, she could yet be seen as the mother of a different, more vibrant and multicultural Germany a country that held on to its values when it was put to the test.如果默克尔能够重新控制局势的话,那么20年后,她仍可能会被视为一个不同、更具活力和多元文化的德国一个在经受考验时坚持自己价值观的国家的“妈妈”。However, if the number of refugees heading into Germany continues at its present level for some time, and Ms Merkel remains committed to open borders, the pressure for her to step down will grow. There are, at present, no obvious rivals. But a continuing crisis will doubtless throw some up.然而,如果涌入德国的难民人数在一段时期内继续保持当前水平,而默克尔仍坚持开放边界,那么要求她下台的压力将会增大。目前,她还没有明显的对手。但持续发酵的危机无疑将让一些人跳出来。Regardless of the chancellor’s personal fate and reputation, the refugee crisis marks a turning point. The decade after Ms Merkel first came to power in 2005 now looks like a blessed period for Germany, in which the country was able to enjoy peace, prosperity and international respect, while keeping the troubles of the world at a safe distance. That golden era is now over.姑且不论默克尔的个人命运和声誉,这场难民危机标志着一个转折点。对德国而言,默克尔005年首次上台后0年现在看起来是一段幸运的时期,在那期间,德国能够享受和平、繁荣和国际尊重,同时将世界的各种麻烦保持在安全距离之外。如今,这样的黄金时代已经结束。来 /201510/406689Ukraine will refuse entry to a convoy of 280 Russian trucks carrying humanitarian aid to the east of the country amid fears in Kiev and western capitals that Moscow’s mission is aimed at shoring up a separatist rebellion.乌克兰将拒绝280辆运载人道援助物资的俄罗斯卡车进入乌东部地区。乌克兰和西方国家担心俄罗斯此举意在给分裂分子的叛乱活动打气。The Ukrainian government said any illegal crossing into its territory would be an act of aggression after Moscow hastily dispatched the vehicles with 2,000 tonnes of aid towards the border.在莫斯科方面急匆匆地向俄乌边境派出这装000吨援助物资的车队之后,乌克兰政府表示,任何非法越境进入其领土的行为都将是侵略行为。Russia’s emergency ministry said that the convoy destined for the rebel-held city of Lugansk, which is surrounded by pro-Kiev forces was part of an agreement to provide assistance under the auspices of the International Committee of the Red Cross.俄罗斯紧急事务部(Emergency Ministry)表示,目的地为目前被乌克兰政府军包围、由叛军占据的卢甘斯克市(Lugansk)的该车队,是一项在红十字国际委员会(ICRC)统筹下提供援助的协议的一部分。But the ICRC said it was “not in chargeof the convoy and had not clarified details of its contents. Valeriy Chalyi, a senior Ukrainian official, said if Russian aid was transferred to Red Cross trucks as per the agreement, it would be accepted.但红十字国际委员会表示,其“并未负责”该车队,也尚未澄清车上物资的详细情况。乌克兰高级官员瓦列#8226;查尔Valeriy Chalyi)表示,如果俄罗斯按协议要求,将援助物资交给红十字会卡车运输,那将是可以接受的。The confusion over Moscow’s intentions amplified concerns that it could use humanitarian suffering as a pretext for direct intervention as Kiev’s troops gear up for a wider assault in the east of the country, where pro-Russian separatists have been rapidly losing ground.围绕莫斯科意图的困惑,加大了如下担忧——在乌克兰部队准备在东部发起全面攻势之际,俄罗斯可能以人道苦难为借口进行直接干预。亲俄分裂分子目前在乌克兰东部节节败退。Fran#231;ois Hollande, the French president, spoke with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin yesterday to express his “very serious concerns at the prospect of a unilateral Russian mission on Ukrainian territory the Elysée Palace said in a statement.爱丽舍宫(Elysee Palace)发表声明称,法国总统弗朗索瓦#8226;奥朗Fran#231;ois Hollande)昨日与俄总统弗拉基米#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)通话,表达他“对俄罗斯可能在乌克兰领土上采取单边行动的严重关切”。Fears of a new flashpoint between Kiev and Moscow sent Ukraine’s currency, the hryvnia, tumbling to a record low against the dollar.对于乌克兰与俄罗斯之间出现新爆发点的担忧,推动乌克兰货币格里夫尼hryvnia)兑美元的汇率跌至创纪录低点。The crisis is also weighing on the eurozone economy. A German index of financial market confidence, the ZEW, recorded an 8.6 per cent drop in August, as German companies cut back investments following tougher sanctions on Russia.这场危机也令欧元区经济承压。对俄罗斯实施更严厉制裁后,随着德国企业削减投资,反映金融市场信心的德国欧洲经济研究中心(ZEW)指数月下跌了8.6%。Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov yesterday telephoned his German counterpart, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, and urged him to do all he could to allow the mission to go ahead, his ministry said.俄罗斯外交部表示,俄外长谢尔#8226;拉夫罗夫(Sergei Lavrov)昨日致电德国外长弗兰沃尔#8226;施泰因迈Frank-Walter Steinmeier),敦促他尽最大努力让俄方车队完成援助使命。Last night, Mr Lavrov said he had received a note from Ukraine’s foreign ministry confirming Kiev’s willingness to accept Russian aid. “Movement has been started,he said.昨夜,拉夫罗夫称他已收到乌克兰外交部的照会,实乌方愿意接受俄罗斯的援助。“运送已经开始了,”他说。Russia’s foreign ministry said the convoy would travel through Shebekino-Pletnevka, a frontier checkpoint between the Russian city of Belgorod and Kharkiv on the Ukrainian side. “After crossing the border, the convoy will proceed under the auspices of the ICRC,it said.俄罗斯外交部称,车队将取道俄罗斯别尔哥罗德市(Belgorod)和乌克兰哈尔科夫Kharkiv)之间的Shebekino-Pletnevka边境检查站过境。“过境后,车队将在国际红十字会的统领下前进,”俄外交部称。The trucks contain power generation units, food, water and medical supplies and did not have a military escort, Moscow said. However, pictures on social media sites suggested that at least part of the convoy had been put together by soldiers.俄方称,这些卡车装运了发电设备、食物、水和医疗用品,但没有军队护送。然而社交媒体网站上发布的画面似乎显示,至少一部分车队是由军人组成的。Alabino, the town southwest of Moscow where the regional government said the convoy started, is home to a base of an elite military unit.俄罗斯地方政府称,车队是从莫斯科西南方向上的阿拉比诺(Alabino)镇启程的。该镇也是俄罗斯一精英部队的大本营。Moscow has been under intensifying pressure to launch a humanitarian mission to Ukraine’s east and Mr Putin is eager to demonstrate his determination to support the Russian-speaking population in the region, which Russia says is threatened by a humanitarian crisis.俄罗斯政府面临越来越大的压力,要求其在乌克兰东部展开人道主义行动,普京也渴望展示他持该地区俄语人群的决心。俄方称,这些人正面临一场人道主义危机的威胁。However, Ukraine’s foreign ministry has accused Russia of creating the unfolding humanitarian crisis by continuing to arm local militants, supplying fresh rebel and firing artillery and missiles from its territory upon Ukrainian soldiers and residential areas.然而,乌克兰外交部指责俄罗斯持续向当地武装分子提供武器,输送新的反叛分子,还从俄罗斯境内向乌克兰部队官兵和居民区开炮和发射导弹,从而制造了当下的人道主义危机。来 /201408/321166

The UK financial watchdog has dropped its investigation of Bruno Iksil, the former JPMorgan英国金融监管机构放弃了对根大JPMorgan)前交易员、被称为“伦敦鲸”的布鲁#8226;伊克希尔(Bruno Iksil)的调查,使他摆脱了为年的调查,他的交易曾导致62亿美元亏损。trader known as the “London Whalewhose trades led to .2bn in losses, clearing him in the three-year probe.英国金融市场行为监管局(Financial Conduct Authority,FCA)执法部门曾试图对伊克希尔提起民事诉讼,罪名是未能防范或发现根大通首席投资办公室内部的错误。The Financial Conduct Authority’s enforcement division sought to bring a civil action against Mr Iksil for failing to prevent or detect mismarking within JPMorgan’s chief investment office.但FCA内部的独立专家小组——监管决定委员会(Regulatory Decisions Committee)裁决称,该监管机构没有提出有足够说力的理由,难以诉讼成功。But its internal panel of independent experts, the Regulatory Decisions Committee, ruled that the watchdog did not have a strong enough case to proceed.英国金融市场行为监管局表示:“我们可以实,FCA不会采取任何进一步的措施。”“We can confirm that the FCA will not be taking any further action,the authority said.伊克希尔现居住在法国,他通过与美国司法部合作,获得一份豁免协议,避免了面对美国的刑事诉讼。Mr Iksil, who lives in France, has avoided criminal charges in the US by striking an immunity deal there in exchange for his co-operation. “It is rare for the RDC to dismiss an FCA enforcement case at this very initial stage of the disciplinary process,Mr Iksil’s lawyer, Michael Potts at Byrne and Partners, said. “Mr Iksil has fully co-operated throughout the FCA investigation and will continue to co-operate as a witness in the ongoing criminal and civil proceedings in the USA.”“监管决定委员会很少在纪律程序的初期否决FCA的执法案件,”伊克希尔的律师、Byrne and Partners律所的迈克尔#8226;波茨(Michael Potts)表示,“在FCA的整个调查中,伊克希尔一直全力合作,他将继续作为美国正在进行的刑事和民事诉讼的人展开合作。”Julien Grout, a junior derivatives trader on the desk, and Javier Martin-Artajo, Mr Iksil’s former boss who was a managing director at the bank, are both being prosecuted in the US for their roles in the affair. They deny wrong-doing. The FCA is not seeking to bring a case against either man.根大通初级衍生品交易员朱利安#8226;格劳Julien Grout)和伊克希尔前老板、当时担任该行董事总经理的哈维#8226;马丁-阿塔Javier Martin-Artajo)都因他们在此次事件中的角色而在美国被起诉。两人均否认有不当行为。FCA并不寻求对这两人提起诉讼。The only person still being investigated by UK authorities in connection with the 2011 losses is Achilles Macris, who ran the London office of the bank’s chief investment office and oversaw its synthetic credit portfolio team. It was in that division where trades in credit derivatives ultimately led to the trading losses in 2012.如今011年亏损事件而仍受到英国当局调查的只有阿基利#8226;马克里斯(Achilles Macris),他曾执掌根大通首席投资办公室的伦敦办公室,并负责合成信贷资产组合团队。正是这个部门的信用衍生品交易最终导致了2012年的交易亏损。来 /201507/385283

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