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盐城最好的妇科医院排名面诊

2019年07月22日 14:01:55|来源:国际在线|编辑:好医卫生
Finance and Economics;Inflation around the world;Parsing prices;财经;全球通胀;价格分析Rising inflation is not as worrisome as it appears, at least for now.通胀没有看上去那么可怕,至少现在如此。Inflation is back. Despite a weak recovery in much of the world, the threat of rising prices preoccupies policymakers and the public. Concerns are greatest in emerging markets. Inflation stands at 4.6% in China and 5.9% in Brazil; in India it is almost 10%, if below last years high. But it is on the rich worlds agenda, too (see chart).通胀回来了。尽管世界上大部分地区有略微的恢复,但是价格上涨的威胁仍萦绕在政策制定者和公众的心头。这种焦虑在新兴市场最为严重。中国通胀率维持在4.6%,巴西是5.9%,在印度,如果说通胀率比去年最高点低的话也达到了近10%。但是,通胀也提上了富国的议事日程。(见图)Euro-area inflation hit 2.4% in January, according to data out this week. Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of the European Central Bank, has been talking tough, recalling the ECBs July 2008 rate rise when concern over inflation trumped a wobbling economy. In Britain inflation has been above its 2% target since December and stood at 3.7% in December. Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, gave warning in January that it will soon climb to 4-5%. Even in America, where inflation has been at historic lows, it jumped to 1.5% at the end of last year.根据本周发布的数据,欧元区1月份的通胀率达2.4%。欧洲中央行长让-克罗德·特里谢(Jean-Claude Trichet)回忆起欧洲央行2008年7月上调利率,那时通胀的忧虑超过了了摇摇欲坠的经济。在英国,通胀从年12月起通胀已超过其2%的目标,2010年12月保持在3.7%。英国央行行长默文·金(Mervyn King)1月警告通胀率很快就会攀升至4-5%。甚至在通胀率一直位于历史最低点的美国去年年底也上涨到1.5%。Much of the surge in inflation reflects dearer commodities. As well as oil and food, metals prices have been soaring: the price of copper hit a series of record highs this week. More expensive raw materials will work their way through the supply chain over the coming months, pushing up on inflation. Another part of the story in Europe is the effort to plug fiscal gaps by increasing VAT, a consumption tax. A hike in VAT at the start of the year will have driven prices higher in Britain in January.通胀的急剧上升反映出商品的日益昂贵。金属、油和食品价格一直飞涨:本周铜价创一系列历史最高。在未来几月,更多的昂贵的原材料会通过供应链推高通胀率。欧洲正增加增值税(一种消费税)以填补财政赤字。伦敦新年伊始增值税的增长将推动1月价格水平上涨。A rise in commodity prices or taxes has only a temporary effect on inflation, however, with the price rise dropping out of annual comparisons after a year. The stuff of nightmares for central bankers is that this leads to a more pernicious type of inflation. Price rises change expectations of inflation, leading workers to bid for wage increases that preserve their buying power and firms to push through price increases, generating a vicious spiral.然而,商品价格或税收的增长只能暂时影响通胀,因为一年后价格上涨将不具可比性。让央行行长们夜不能寐的是这将导致一种更恶性的通胀。价格上涨改变通胀预期,致使工人为维持购买力而要求涨工资,企业推动价格上涨,从而产生一个恶性工资——价格螺旋。These “second-round effects” are worth losing sleep over, but only when there is aly inflationary pressure in the wider economy, from a tight labour market and firms running factories at full pelt. Such overheating seems some way off for advanced economies. The unemployment rate is in double digits in the euro area, above 9% in America and 7.9% in Britain. Wage growth has been weak, running below 1% in the euro zone and at around 2% in America and Britain.只有劳动力市场紧缩,企业利用全部产能,致使在更大范围的经济已经存在通胀压力时,这些“第二轮效应”才值得人们为之辗转反侧。这种过热似乎对发达国家来说遥不可及。欧元区失业率达两位数,在美国超过9%,在英国超过7.9%。工资涨幅不大,欧元区不到1%,而美国和英国在2%左右。Inflation expectations have edged up a little in recent months. But even if workers expected inflation to let rip, they would be in a bind. Karen Ward of HS reckons anxious employees wont ask for more pay for fear that they will end up getting the sack instead.通胀预期在最近几个月已经略微加强。但是即使工人预期通胀会失控,他们仍无能为力。汇丰的Karen Ward估计,焦急的员工因为害怕被解雇而不会要求加薪。Rich-world economies are also running well below capacity. According to the OECD, in 2010 the G7 economies were anywhere between 2.4% (Japan) and 4.7% (Italy) below potential output. Such estimates are notoriously imprecise. But if the recovery had aly eliminated excess capacity they would be in the wrong city, not just the wrong ballpark.发达国家经济经济资源远未达到充分利用。根据经济合作发展组织(OECD),2010年七国集团经济实际产出低于潜在产出,差额为2.4%(日本)至4.7%(意大利)之间。那类估计十分不准确。但是如果复苏已经消除过剩产能,则错误之处就不仅是细枝末节而是大前提就错了。The story is very different in emerging economies. Many of these got back to their pre-crisis levels of output in . With capacity constraints starting to bite, underlying inflation is on the up. Households inflation expectations are also rising. In China they are at their highest for over a decade and there are signs of growing wage pressure. Higher wages are not, by themselves, a bad thing, especially in a country like China where pay has for years failed to keep pace with rapid productivity growth. The danger comes when loose monetary conditions and an overheating economy mean prices and wages chase each other upward.新兴市场的情况大为不同。很多新型经济体于年恢复到危机前的产出水平。产能水平开始起限制作用,通胀开始上升。居民的通胀预期也在增长。中国通胀已达十多年来最高水平出现工资上涨压力的迹象。更高工资本身并不是件坏事,尤其是在中国这样一个多年工资增长赶不上生产力增长的国家。但宽松的货币状况和过热的经济意味着价格和工资彼此追赶螺旋上升时,危险就来了。To prevent that, central bankers have been fighting back with higher interest rates and higher reserve requirements. The Brazilian and Indian central banks raised rates last month; in total, they have now hiked their policy rates by 2.5 and 1.75 percentage points respectively. Chinas central bank recently raised reserve requirements for the seventh time in a year.为了控制工资——价格螺旋上升,央行的家们一直通过加息和上调准备金率予以回击。上月巴西和印度央行上调利率;现在他们已经分别上调2.5个百分点和1.75个百分点。中国央行最近进行了年内第七次上调准备金率。For all that, monetary conditions remain extraordinarily loose. According to JPMorgan Chase, real policy rates in emerging economies—the official interest rate minus core consumer-price inflation—are at their lowest level since 2000. Core consumer-price inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) remains below its 2008 levels. But vigilance is needed. A continuation of booming growth and cheap money will cause trouble in the end.尽管有上述一切措施,货币状况依然十分宽松,根大通表示,新兴市场的实际利率(名义利率减核心消费价格通胀率)达到2000年以来的最低点。核心消费价格通胀率(不包括食品和能源价格)保持在2008年水平以下。但是警惕是需要的。最终,持续的经济过热和货币贬值将造成麻烦。 /201302/225122Books and Arts;Amazon worldwide bestsellers文艺;亚马逊全球畅销书Peddling wisdom营销智慧Making money out of the crisis 在金融危机中赚钱A marthian landing on Earth could learn a lot about the current state of the world mind simply by ing some of the book titles that appear on the bestseller tables.一个登陆地球的火星人,只要浏览一下畅销书榜上的一些书名,就足以知道如今地球在关注哪些事情。Judging by those listed below, the most popular writing on the financial crisis is about ambition, greed, corruption, debt, lean times, saving money and protecting yourself against financial folly and economic Armageddon. Some of the books are new; “Reckless Endangerment” by Gretchen Morgenson and Joshua Rosner (see article) shot to the top of the heap when it was published earlier this year. Others are older, and some are much older; Cassandra, remember, was an ancient Greek.从下表可以得知,与经济危机有关的最受欢迎的题材是野心、贪婪、腐败、债务、低迷期、储蓄以及在经济低迷期与经济大战期间如何自卫等。其中有些书比较新:今年早期出版的由Gretchen Morgenson以及Joshua Rosner所合著的《Reckless Endangerment》(见文章)跃居畅销榜榜首。有些书比较旧,还有一些更旧——印象中Cassandra好像是一名古希腊人。“The Richest Man in Babylon”, now ranked tenth, began in 1926 as a series of pamphlets distributed by banks and insurance companies. They used parables to illustrate such financial axioms as “Live on less than you earn” or “Make your gold work for you” and were updated in 2004, with modern English instead of the old-fashioned King James kind. How about this one, Mr Martian: better a little caution than a great regret.1926由和保险公司联合发型的一系列名为《巴比伦王国最富有的人》(“The Richest Man in Babylon”)的小册子如今排行第十。他们以寓言的形式阐述了类似“挣得多,花得少”或者“为自己找一份黄金工作”等金融定理。该系列书籍在2004年得到更新出版,用现代英语代替了国王詹姆斯的古英语。下面这本如何:《火星人:一步谨慎,百步不悔》 /201208/196039

Books and Arts; Book Review;Nancy and Lawrence Durrell;Days of heaven;文艺;书评;南希和劳伦斯·德雷尔;天堂里的日子;Amateurs in Eden: The Story of a Bohemian Marriage, Nancy and Lawrence Durrell. By Joanna Hodgkin.《Amateurs in Eden》:一场波西米亚姻缘的故事,关于南希和劳伦斯·德雷尔。Joanna Hodgkin著。Given Greeces economic woes and role as yet another Mediterranean holiday destination, it is hard to appreciate the freedom, sunlight and sense of space that it provided 50 or more years ago. Intrepid travellers would come to explore ruins and ancient villages in solitary peace, and sleep under the stars on empty sandy beaches. The islands were especially enticing, and no books contributed more to their image as a paradise than those by the Durrell brothers,Lawrence and Gerald. “Prosperos Cell” (1945), Lawrences diary of life on Corfu, and “My Family and Other Animals” (1956), Geralds account of his experiences as a child there, are brilliant, contrasting views of life on this Greek island in the 1930s, and remain popular to this day.如今,希腊只是个平凡的地中海休假景点,经济也正处于萧条时期,让人很难重温这里50余年前自由的空气、美好的阳光和海阔天空的舒畅感觉。当时,胆大的旅行者喜欢探索遗迹,寻找宁静的古代小镇,也喜欢在静谧的海滩上安然入眠,霑沐一身星辉。希腊诸岛格外诱人,素有人间天堂的美誉,德雷尔(Durrell)兄弟(劳伦斯Lawrence和杰拉德Gerald )的著作对此贡献最大。劳伦斯1945年出版的日记集《Prosperos Cell》讲述了他在科孚岛上的生活,杰拉德1956年的《My Family and Other Animals》,则描述了自己20世纪30年代在那里度过的童年时光;该书才华横溢,与劳伦斯的书相映成趣,时至今日依然畅销。“Amateurs in Eden” is written by Joanna Hodgkin, the daughter (from a later marriage) of Lawrence Durrells first wife Nancy. It tells Nancys story, complete with a full description of her “unsatisfactory parents” and unhappy childhood, and an account of her life after she left Lawrence. The heart of the book, and the subject of greatest interest, is a portrait of their marriage and their four seemingly idyllic years on Corfu. They met in bohemian London when she was an art student and he was working for an estate agent and writing poetry.From the start they were a striking but “odd couple”. She was tall, willowy, beautiful. He was three inches shorter and stocky; his lack of height a “secret sorrow”. Yet he had no shortage of charm. He could turn a mundane event into a colourful drama, and she fell under his spell. After two years together, both 22, they married and left England—“Pudding Island”, according to Durrell. His widowed mother and her three younger children (including Gerald) soon followed them to Greece.乔安娜·霍奇金(Joanna Hodgkin)是劳伦斯的首任妻子南希(Nancy)改嫁后生的女儿,撰写了《Amateurs in Eden》一书,将南希一生的故事娓娓道来,从她不称职的父母、不快乐的童年一直讲到离开劳伦斯之后的日子。本书的核心部分(也是最有趣的话题),便是南希和劳伦斯在科孚岛上四年田园牧歌式的伉俪情缘。两人当年初见时,波西米亚主义正在伦敦盛行。她是个艺术学生,而他是个写诗的房产经济人。这“奇怪的一对儿”从一开始就很引人注目。姑娘很修长,苗条而美丽,小伙子却挺敦实,足足比她矮了三英寸——海拔不够是个心病。不过身高可不是问题:他能把庸常俗务变成精的戏剧,让她为他的魔力倾心。两年后,这对22岁的年轻人结了婚,离开了英格兰(他称之为“布丁似的岛”)。他的寡母很快带着三个弟跟着他俩搬到了希腊。Their time in Corfu was mainly one of simple happiness: isolated, primitive, strangely serene, removed from the wider reality of international events. Many years later Durrell said: “I shall really never, never ever forget a youth spent there, discovered by accident. It was pure gold.” They swam and sailed and he, finding his voice as a writer, completed his first major novel, “The Black Book”.科孚岛上的时光是一场简单的幸福:与世隔绝、简单淳朴、宁静异常,远离世间各国的纷纷扰扰。多年后,他回忆道:“蓦然回首,发觉当年岛上的韶华永难忘却。彼时岁月纯净如金。”那时,他们会一起游泳,一起开船;他也开始作为一名作家崭露头角,完成了第一部重要小说《The Black Book》。Yet Lawrence and Nancy were complicated characters, and the marriage had its problems. Lawrence could be cruel and obsessively jealous, and would use words “to lacerate and destroy”. The strains were evident when they met Henry Miller in Paris in 1937. Superficially, the visit was a success. But Lawrence, who was inclined to build “a wall of ice” to separate intimates from other people, was determined to keep Nancy on the sidelines—“decorative but insignificant”—and Nancy retreated into silence.Back in Corfu there were times of “rare and precious content”, but the onset of war changed things for ever. They moved to mainland Greece and in 1941 fled to Egypt. With Cairo under threat, Nancy travelled with their one-year-old child to Jerusalem; Lawrence was unable to persuade her to return to him. He would marry three more times. Nancy eventually had over 30 years of “loving closeness” with Teddy Hodgkin.然而两人都不是省油的灯,他们的婚姻自有问题。有时,劳伦斯为人冷酷,醋劲十足,还会用言辞“伤害并摧毁(别人的心)”。1937年,他们在巴黎与亨利·米勒(Henry Miller)会面,紧张局势就十分明显。这场会面看起来一切和谐;实际上劳伦斯常常筑起一道“冰墙”把爱侣和外人隔开,这次便决定只让南希当个陪衬:“无关紧要的装饰品”,于是南希只好黯然陷入沉默。回到科孚岛后,“珍稀的满足”余韵尚存;但随后战争爆发,永远改变了一切。他们搬到希腊本土,又在1941年逃往埃及。后来德军兵临开罗城下,南希带着1岁的孩子去了耶路撒冷。从此,劳伦斯再也没能唤回她。时光荏苒,他又成婚3次,她则与泰迪·霍奇金(Teddy Hodgkin)相依相守30年。Ms Hodgkin understandably takes her mothers side, but she is at pains to stress that there are many ways to tell the story of a marriage. Despite some misprints, incorrect dates and verbal infelicities, her account is of interest. Many will agree that Durrells best work is infused with his love of Greece, and that his poetry deserves to be better known. The critical acclaim that greeted the novels of “The Alexandria Quartet” may have been a bit excessive in the 1950s and early 1960s, but these books deserve more ers now.人们能够理解霍奇金女士站在她母亲的立场讲述这个故事的原因。不过,她在书中尽力强调:要想讲述婚姻的故事,可以有很多视角。这本书中有些印刷错误、日期错误、表述错误,但是故事本身还是很有价值。很多人都会同意,德雷尔最好的作品中饱含着他对希腊的深情,他的诗作也应该得到更多赏识。家称,《The Alexandria Quartet》中的几本书对二十世纪五、六十年代的人可能有点激进;如今,它们值得更多的读者去欣赏。 /201212/214965

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