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楼主:QQ时讯 时间:2019年08月22日 06:40:07 点击:0 回复:0
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Finance and economics财经商业Buttonwood金融市场Where theres money, theres risk哪里有货币,哪里就有风险Events in America show that no asset is copper-bottomed在美国发生的事情显示出没有资产是毫无风险的。A GOVERNMENT with debt denominated in its own currency need never default, or so the theory goes.一个拥有以本币为计量单位的债务的政府需要的是永不违约,大概这个理论是可以实现的。It can simply print more money to pay off the debt.它能简单地印刷更多的货币来付它的债务。In practice, however, countries do default on local-currency debt: six have done so in the past 15 years, including Jamaica, Russia and Ecuador.但是实际上,国家不履行本国货币债务:在过去十五年已经有六个国家这样做了,包括牙买加,俄罗斯和厄瓜多尔。Before this weeks budget deal, markets had feared that America could join the list, if only in a technical sense.在本周的预算计划前,市场已经担心美国会加入这个名单,但愿在技术层面上。From the point of view of a creditor, however, the ability of a government to print money is of little comfort if the result is higher inflation or currency depreciation.然而,从一个债权人的观点来看,一个政府的印钞能力是没有用的,如果结果是对国内投资者更高的通货膨胀率或者对国外投资者的货币贬值。Investors who bought Treasury bonds in 1946, when yields were around current levels, did not suffer a formal default.在1946年国库券年收益率与现在的水平差不多的时候,购买它的投资者没有遭受正式违约。But over the following 35 years they lost money in real terms at a rate of 2% a year.但是在后续的三十五年他们以每年2%的利率实际上亏钱。The cumulative real loss was 91%.累积的实际损失是91%。By that standard, Greek creditors, who recently suffered a 50% loss via default, were lucky.跟据这个标准,最近因为违约损失50%的希腊债权人是幸运的。Given this baleful history, the idea that sovereign debt is risk-free is puzzling.考虑到这个可怕的历史,认为政府债务无风险的观点是令人费解的。When it comes to the purchasing power of an investors money, what does it matter if the loss comes in the form of a formal default or erosion in real terms?那么当提到投资者资金实际购买力时,如果损失以正式违约或者实际侵蚀的形式发生时,这有什么差别呢?The answer to that conundrum may be that default happens suddenly, whereas inflation and depreciation are slower, giving investors more time to adjust by demanding higher interest rates to compensate for their losses.对于这个难题的可能是违约突然发生,然而通货膨胀和货币贬值是缓慢的,这给了投资者更多的时间去调整,通过要求更高的利率去赔偿他们的损失。This is particularly true in the case of short-term debt, such as Treasury bills; inflation is unlikely to do serious damage to a portfolio in the course of a few months.这个在短期债务中更有现实意义,如国库券;通货膨胀极少有可能在几个月的过程中对投资组合产生严重的损害。Twenty years ago there was much talk of bond vigilantes who would respond to irresponsible fiscal policies by forcing up the interest rates on government debt.二十年前,有许多关于通过抛售国库券来要求更高年收益和约束美国政策制定者的国际投资者的事迹,他们通过迫使提高政府债务利率来应对不负责任的财政政策。With the bond vigilantes on the prowl, any short-term real loss suffered by investors would be recouped in the form of higher real rates as the governments debt was refinanced.随着他们伺机而动,投资者遭受的任何短期实际损失会由于政府债务再筹资而以较高的实际利率的形式收回来。But by buying bonds in the name of quantitative easing, central banks are influencing interest rates of all maturities these days.通过以量化宽松的名义购买债券,中央这些日子在影响所有的到期利率。By holding down bond yields, the authorities are employing a policy some have dubbed financial repression, in which real returns on government debt are reduced.通过压制住债券的年收益率,管理者运用一项政策引入金融抑制,由此政府债务的实际回报减少了。The idea is to make investors buy riskier assets, such as equities and corporate bonds.这个构想是让投资者购买有风险的资产,例如股票和公司债券。In effect, the bond vigilantes have been neutered.实际上,债券市场秩序维护者们保持了中立。One way of protecting the real value of investors bond holdings is to buy inflation-linked debt.保护投资者持有的债券实际价值的方法之一是购买通胀挂钩债券。The repayment value and interest payments on such bonds are normally tied to a well-known inflation index.关于这类债券的回报价值和利息付一般地说是与一个著名的通货膨胀指数相联系的。But even these bonds may not be completely risk-free; it is possible to imagine that future governments may find ways to redefine the inflation measure for their own benefit.但是即使是这些债券也不是完全无风险的;很有可能可以这样想象未来政府可能为了他们自己的利益找到方法去重新定义通货膨胀措施。And foreign buyers of inflation-linked bonds are still at risk from currency depreciation.并且通胀挂钩债券的外国购买者仍然面临来自货币贬值的风险。Inflation-linked bonds are extremely attractive to pension funds, since they are a neat match for the funds liabilities.由于通胀挂钩债券与养老基金的责任非常匹配,它们对养老基金来说非常有吸引力。So such bonds are snapped up quickly and tend to trade on low real yields; sometimes, those yields are even negative.所以这些债券很快被抢购一空并且有不正当利用低实际收益率的趋势;有些时候,这些获益率甚至是消极的。An asset is hardly risk-free if it guarantees a real loss.一个资产很难无风险如果它保实际损失。The concept of a risk-free asset is quite useful in finance.无风险资产的概念在金融上是非常有用的。For a start, it provides the base from which other assets can be priced.首先,它提供了其他资产的定价基准。Corporate borrowers pay an interest premium over the risk-free rate; equities have offered a higher long-term return than government bonds to reflect their higher risk.公司融资者在无风险率上付利息费用;股票提供一个比政府债券更能反映他们的高风险的长期回报。But what is the true risk-free rate?但是什么是真正的无风险率呢?Multinational companies can borrow at a lower rate of interest than some governments: compare Apple with Greece, for example.跨国公司可以以比一些政府更低的利率借款:例如,比较苹果公司和希腊。And although America is the worlds biggest economy, its government does not borrow at the cheapest rate on the planet:尽管美国是世界上最大的经济体,它的政府并不以这个星球上最便宜的利率借钱;Japanese yields have been lower for many years and German long-term yields are now significantly below those of Treasuries.日本的年收益率已经愈来愈低很多年了而且德国长期年收益率现在很明显的比国库券低。Where America does have a substantial advantage is that it borrows in the worlds reserve currency—the dollar—and that its debt market is by far the most liquid.美国实质上占优势的地方是它借的是世界储备货币并且它的债券市场是目前流动性最好的。The result is that Treasury bills, in particular, play a vital role in the system as cash equivalents and as collateral for short-term loans and derivative contracts.这样的结果是,尤其是,国库券作为现金等价物和作为短期贷款和衍生品合同作的担保物在这个系统里起了一个至关重要的作用。Treasury bills are seen as risk-free in this context in that they are instantly and universally acceptable to all participants in the system.国库券因为它们对这个系统里所有参与者迅速和广泛的接受而在这个环境里被看为是无风险的。They are the oil that lubricates the global machinery of finance.他们是润滑全球金融机器的油。That was the real risk of the latest stand-off: not that America would not pay its bills, which it could easily afford to, but that the system would grind to a halt.这个才是最新平衡的真正风险:不是美国不付它自己很容易付的账,而是这个系统会慢慢停滞下来。 /201312/270431Company accounts公司账目Truthful top lines真实的头条New global rules aim to make it harder for firms to fib about their revenues新的国际规则致力于让公司收入造假变得更加艰难WHEN companies should recognise revenues on their books is one of the most contentious and consequential issues in the staid profession of accounting. For simple sales of goods the timing is usually straightforward, but in the areas of services and long-term contracts it gets murky fast. Companies may manipulate the “top line” of their accounts—their revenues—say, by booking sales they are not yet sure of (to boost their reported profits) or not booking sales that they are certain of.公司应当认识到其报表上所列载的收入项在有着固定准则的专业会计上是最容易引起争议以及一系列问题内容之一。就简单的商品销售而言,其时间的记录是简单的明了的,但是在务以及长期合同领域,记录的问题就变得模糊而复杂。公司有可能会巧妙的操纵他们账目上的“头条”—即收入—也就是说,将那些还未最终确定的订单以及那些他们肯定不会有的订单,列为收入项。In Britain the controversy surfaced again after HPs takeover of Autonomy in 2011. The American firm later took a big write-down on its purchase, blaming it in part on the British software firm having pumped up its reported revenues by counting expected subscription fees as current sales .在英国,在2011年惠普收购Autonomy之后,争议再一次的浮出水面。美国公司随后将收购的账面价值故意调低,指责英国的软件公司在一定程度上通过将预期的会员费用当成当期销售收入入账以达到通过虚增收入来美化其账目的目的。Revenue recognition is perhaps the biggest headache for investors trying to compare companies in different countries. The GAAP standard used in the ed States is Byzantine, with more than 100 different protocols for various permutations of transactions and industries, whereas the IFRS rules applied in most of the rest of the world offer only broad guidance.收入确认可能投资者试图比较公司不同的账目时最令他们头疼的事情。在美国,一般公认会计准则是拜占庭式的,这项准则针对各行各业的不同事物的之间的穿插交易制定了100多项的错综复杂的条款,与此同时世界其他地方所用的国际财务报告准则却仅仅是提供了广泛的直到。Following 12 years of consultation, on May 28th the boards that control the two accounting systems released a new joint standard they hope will put these issues to rest. Scheduled to take effect in 2017, it represents a neat middle ground, adopting the IFRSs principle of one size to fit all industries, but with GAAP-style clarity. It spells out how companies will have to break down sales contracts into their component obligations and allocate the total value among them, estimating the worth of any variable fees they expect, like performance bonuses. Firms will then recognise the revenue assigned to each individual element as it is completed.经过十二年的协商之后,在5月28日控制两个会计系统的委员会发布出了一个新的联合标准他们希望可以用来解决这些问题。这个标准计划将于2017年生效,它描绘了一个干净的中间地带,采纳了国际财务报告准则的统一标准来适应各行各业,但是会像一般公认会计原则那样清楚明了。它阐述了公司应当怎样将销售合同分解为义务的组成和并且如何将总值分配其间,如何预估他们所期望的各种可变费用诸如绩效奖金等费用的价值。公司也将承认这些已经完成的被分配到每个单元的收入。The biggest impact will be felt in industries that rely on bundled product-plus-service contracts, such as software and telecoms. In the 1990s Microsoft was accused of “cookie-jar accounting”, holding back revenue so as to recognise it during weak quarters, to smooth its reported earnings. The Securities and Exchange Commission filed an administrative action against the company that was later settled. Some rival software firms took the opposite approach, booking all the proceeds from sales immediately, even if they were required to offer support or upgrades in the future.这对于那些产品及务捆绑的行业而言影响似乎是最大的,例如软件以及电信行业。在二十世纪就是年代的时候微软公司曾因“饼干罐会计”而被指控,即隐藏收入以供于在收入较弱的季度确认来美化其账面上的收入。美国券交易委员会对于这些曾被行政裁定但最终都得以解决的公司留有底案。一些敌对的软件公司则选择了相反的途径,立即将所有的订单转化为收益,即使他们要在将来提供后续的持或者升级。Regulators responded by bringing in the highly prescriptive accounting standards that software firms rue to this day, which make it hard to offer customers tailored packages of discounts and upgrades without falling foul of the rules. The abolition of such industry-specific rules should give software firms more flexibility to negotiate contracts. Mobile-phone operators will henceforth book the stand-alone value of handsets upfront, even when they are providing these free as part of a bundled contract. Verizon, Americas largest mobile operator, estimates that under the new model its wireless divisions reported profit margin would have been six to nine percentage points higher in 2011.监管机构的反应是将高度规范的会计准则引入这个行业,这使得软件公司至今都追悔莫及,因为这使得公司很难裁定是否打包提供给客户的折扣以及升级是否有触犯规则。特定行业规则的废除能够给予软件公司最大的灵活性来谈判合同。电话运营商自此以后会将手机前期的预付费用入账为一部分独立的价值,即使当他们把这些作为免费的捆绑合同的一部分。威瑞森,美国最大的移动通信公司,估计到在新的模式下其无线业务的利润率的报告将会比2011年时高出六到九个百分点。For investors in America, the risk of switching from the rigid “rules-based” GAAP method to the IFRSs “principles-based” approach is that unscrupulous companies will enjoy more leeway to mislead them. The new system tries to compensate for this flexibility by beefing up disclosure requirements: footnotes to financial statements will have to give detailed information about sales arrangements, so that ers can assess any questionable judgment calls.对于在美国的投资者而言,从严格的以“规则为导向”的一般公认会计原则方法而转向国际财务报告准则的“原则为导向”的处理方法便是打开了风险的开关,并且这样做是不道德的,因为公司会有更多发挥的余地来用以误导投资者。新体制试图通过增强披露弥要求来补这种灵活性,财务报表附注必须披露销售安排的细节信息,以便于读者可以评估任何可疑的问题。The creation of a global rule on revenues is the biggest success yet in a decades-long effort to standardise company accounts worldwide. It may not prevent the next Enron, but it will make it easier for investors to judge companies, while helping multinationals cut compliance costs.全球收入会计准则的创立是经过数十年的努力将世界范围内的公司账目标准化的最大的成功。这并不能阻止下一个安然公司(财务作家),但这会使得投资者更加容易的评判一个公司,同时也有助于帮助跨国公司减少合规成本。 /201406/305945Financial-technology firms金融技术公司Apps at the gate应用近在咫尺Tech start-ups promise to transform finance, if regulators will let them如果监管者允许,技术创业公司希望改变金融业Aug 3rd 2013 |From the print editionTWO millennia after the Temple was cleansed of money-changers, the Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, plans to open his churches to moneylenders. This is no capitulation in the struggle between God and Mammon. It is an effort to “compete out of existence” payday lenders that offer expensive loans by supporting not-for-profit credit unions.在寺院与金钱交易撇清关系两千年之后,坎特伯雷大主教Justin Welby计划开放教堂给放贷者。这不是选择上帝或者贪婪之间的妥协。这是通过持非盈利信用合作社让高利息贷款失去市场。The archbishop is right that more competition is needed, but old-fashioned credit unions are unlikely to be able to beat the slick systems and snappy service of online providers, like Wonga. A more effective way of pushing down rates would be lighter regulation to allow more lenders to flourish.大主教是对的,确实需要加强竞争,而这些老古董也不太可能被像Wonga之类的拥有更加灵活的系统和快速的务的网上金融务提供商击败。推低利率更有效的方法是放松监管,允许更多放贷者进入市场。Digital communications have given birth to a new generation of finance companies (see article). Money-transfer agents such as Xoom have drastically cut the time and costs for migrant workers to send money home. Peer-to-peer lenders are matching savers and borrowers, slashing fees and delivering a better deal to both. New foreign-exchange firms are giving travellers access to the prices ed on wholesale currency markets. Card companies such as Square and iZettle let anyone from yoga teachers to plumbers accept payments by credit card. Firms such as M-Pesa have given millions of people in developing countries access to mobile money.线上交流已经催生出了新一代的金融公司。像Xoom这种转帐机构大大减少了外国务工人员汇款回家的时间和费用。点对点借贷配对债权人和借债人,降低费用,给双方最好的选择。新的外汇公司让旅行者以大型外汇市场的汇率兑换现金。诸如Square和iZettle这样的信用卡公司让从瑜伽老师到管道工的客户都能使用信用卡消费。M-Pesa这类公司已经让发展中国家数百万的人民使用上了移动钱包。Heavy regulation of financial companies means many firms stick to small niches to skirt the boundaries of banking regulations. Peer-to-peer lenders do not offer savers the security of deposit insurance or the convenience of guaranteed instant access to their cash. This limits their appeal. Other firms that take deposits such as Holvi, a Finnish start-up that offers group accounts, are not allowed to lend. Those that do lend, such as Wonga, cannot take deposits.金融公司严格的监管制度意味着许多公司许多坚持小利基的公司要绕过监管的局限。点对点借贷不提供给债权人存款保或者直接取钱的便利。其他的公司像Holvi,一个位于芬兰提供集体账户的初创公司,只提供存款,但不能借贷。而像Wonga这样能借贷的公司则不能存款。Creating a financial-tech company is arduous. Whereas it takes less than a day to register a company in Britain, it takes months or years and can cost millions to get authorised as a bank. The number of new banks started over the past decade can almost be counted on one hand. Even those that have started, such as Metro Bank or Aldermore, are penalised by regulation: rules on capital favour large and complex firms. In America the Dodd-Frank Act is an imposing barrier to all but the biggest firms. And regulation is closing in on some existing firms. M-Pesa has struggled to grow much beyond Kenya, partly because authorities stand in its way. The market for remittances has been a hothouse for start-ups in Britain, partly because it was lightly regulated. Yet almost half the country’s money-transfer firms may be shut as banks close their accounts to comply with money-laundering rules.创建一家金融科技公司很费力。在英国一家普通公司可能不到一天就注册完成了,而要是成立一家则有可能经历长达数月甚至数年的审批,而且可能要花费上数百万的费用。过去十年里成立的数量一只手就能数过来。即使是成立了的像Metro Bank和Aldermore,都被监管部门处罚过。关于资本的规定更有利于大型公司。在美国,多德弗兰克法案对所有非大型公司是一个障碍。对很多公司的监管很严。M-Pesa努力在肯尼亚之外发展,部分原因就是政府出面阻碍其发展。在英国,汇款市场在初创公司中很火,部分原因就是其监管相对较松。但是如果以违反洗钱规则关闭它们的账户,那么近一半的转帐公司将会关门大吉。Banks need to be more heavily regulated than other firms because of their central role in the economy. However, governments could regulate more smartly, raising capital requirements for big and systemically important banks while easing the burden on smaller ones. Regulators should be even more relaxed about many of the new entrants to the market, most of which simply provide quicker and simpler ways of shifting money around. Most of these start-ups avoid the alchemy of banking—the transformation of short-term deposits into long-term loans—so pose little systemic risk.比其他公司的监管更严厉,原因是它们在经济活动中至关重要。但是,政府能更聪明地管理业。提高对大型系统性的监管,放松对小型的管理。监管人员应该对新入行的公司放轻松,这些公司只是提供更方便快捷的转账方式。大多数初创公司避开业的核心业务--将短期存款转换成长期借贷--这样系统性风险就很小了。The idea of lighter-touch regulation will seem to many an anathema after the financial crisis. It would certainly lead to more failures by small banks and start-ups. This would also impose some costs on society and deposit-guarantee schemes. Yet these costs would be outweighed by the enormous benefits to consumers and businesses of a far more competitive financial system.对很多人来说,金融危机之后放宽监管很危险。当然,放松监管会带来很多小和初创公司的失败。这也会给社会以及存款保计划带来很多代价。但是这些代价会被消费者的获利和金融系统更激烈的竞争所抵消。 /201308/251564

From fluvaccines to tetanus boosters, injections are amust in modern medicine.从流感疫苗到破伤风针,注射在现代医学中是不可或缺的。But do they always have to makeyou say Ouch?但是它们是否就一定会让你尖叫呢?Eh,no?嗯,不会吗?No,indeed.If new microneedle technology is successful, we may soon have needles that inject medicine without your even knowing it.真的不会!如果新的显微针技术成功了的话,我们将很快享受甚至你都不能意识到的药物注射。How does this work, you ask?你快问它是如何办到的?How does it work?如何办到的?You feel things because of the nerves that are embedded in your skin.你有感觉是因为你皮肤里镶嵌的有神经。However, the entiresurface of your skin is not covered.然而,它却没有完全覆盖你的皮肤。From a microscopic viewpoint, there is plenty of spacebetween nerves where a super-tiny needle wouldn’t be felt.在显微镜下可以看到,神经之间有很多空间,而在这里人们便感受不到微型针。No way!不可能!Way! Researcher Mark Prausnitz and his coworkers at the Georgia Institute of Technology inAtlanta have aly built micro-injection devices.可能!亚特兰大乔治亚理工学院的研究人员Mark Prausnitz和他的同伴们已经研制出了微型注射器具。Imagine a platform the size of your thumbnail,made of silicon, metal or glass.试想它就如拇指指甲盖大小,材料是硅、金属或是玻璃。The surface is covered with a thousand needles, each no bigger than aperiod at the end of a typewritten sentence.表面被一千个微型针所覆盖,每一个都还没一个句子中的句号那么大。When this chip is placed on your skin its like rolling in a briar patch-you are pierced again andagain.当这个芯片被植入到你的皮肤就仿佛是卷入到了荆棘区一样,它会一次又一次的刺你。But so small are the briars, you feel nothing.但它是如此的小,以至于你什么都感觉不到。Because they cause no discomfort,microneedles may soon allow doctors to administer controlled amounts of medication over longperiods of time.因为它们不会带来不适感。微型针很快就能让医生在很长时间内掌管在量上有控制的药物治疗。That would be a big step toward the precision medicine of tomorrow–and awayfrom the big Ouch of yesterday.这对于告别以前的疼痛时代、对于将来药物治疗的精准性来说都是迈出了一大步。 201405/299331

Finance and economics财经商业Indonesias banks印度尼西亚The good times end黄金时代的终结Banks solvency is not in question. Profitability is another matter偿付不是问题 获利才是问题IN THE late 1990s Indonesias banking sector collapsed after the rupiah lost about 85% of its value against the dollar, leading to a spate of loan defaults by borrowers unable to service their foreign debts.90年代末卢比汇率暴跌货币损失85%价值,这造成了大量大量贷款拖欠者无力偿还外债。The rupiahs recent decline—the currency has dropped by 14% against the dollar since the start of the year—and a big current-account deficit have revived uncomfortable memories of that period.卢比的汇率下跌以及大量的财政赤字使得那些不好的记忆重现。Indonesias economy is now growing at its slowest pace in almost three years.今年是印度尼西亚这三年来经济增长最为缓慢的一年。In real terms GDP expanded at an annual rate of 5.8% in the second quarter, down from a recent high of 6.8%.在第二季度中实际GDP增长率仅为5.8%,较之前的6.8%有所回落。Since May Bank Indonesia, the central bank, has lifted its main interest rate by 125 basis points to 7%, the highest since June , in an effort to reverse the rupiahs slide.为了阻止卢比的下跌,五月份以来,印度尼西亚的中央将主要利率将之前的基点125上调了7%。这是自年6月以来的最高值。When the currency was stable it made sense for firms to borrow in dollars even if their revenues were in rupiah, says Ivan Tan of Standard amp; Poors, a ratings agency.标准普尔的Ivan Tan称当货币稳定时公司更倾向于用美元贷款,即使他们所收入的是卢比。Slower growth, currency depreciation and higher interest rates will “start to stretch companies ability to repay their debts.缓慢的经济增速,货币贬值以及高利率限制了企业还贷能力。Firms with dollar revenues, which are naturally hedged against exchange-rate risk, may not be as safe as they once were.而那些收入美元的公司能在一定程度上避免汇率波动所带来的风险,但这也不是绝对的。Many of Indonesias biggest exporters are in the natural-resources sector, selling things like palm oil, rubber or minerals.印度尼西亚的大型出口企业多出口自然资源比如棕榈油橡胶或者金属。International prices for such commodities have tumbled recently as growth has slowed in China and other large importing countries.受中国及其他主要进口国经济增速放慢的影响,这些商品的国际价格最近都有所下跌。This is not the 1990s again, however.这已经不是90年代了。Indonesias banks have high capital ratios—an average of 16.9% in May for the countrys commercial lenders.但是印度尼西亚有着很高的资本比。—在5月份,商业贷款人平均占16.9%。Credit growth has raced along at an annual rate of about 20% in recent years, but this has been financed mostly by deposits rather than flightier wholesale borrowing. Non-performing loans are equivalent to only 2% of total lending.最近几年信贷年增长率急速增加到20%左右。但这一增长主要由存款拉动而不是流动性批发贷款。Corporate balance-sheets are widely accepted to be stronger than they were during the Asian crisis.较亚洲金融危机期间,法人财务状况表已被更广泛地接受。Stricter regulation means that lenders are better at managing their own exposure to exchange-rate risk, too.严格地管理意味着借贷人会更好地应对报表与汇率波动之间的关系。Fitch, another ratings agency, notes that banks net open positions average only 2% of their capital, well within the 20% maximum permitted at the end of each business day.惠誉称的净末平仓合约平均只占其资产的2%,而每个营业日最多允许20%Even so, change is coming to the industry.即使是这样,这也给工业带来了改变。Indonesias banks have been among the worlds most profitable in recent years.最近几年,印度尼西亚已经成为了世界上最赚钱的。As the economy slows, and banks put aside more provisions for bad loans, the years of effortlessly high returns are ending.随着经济增速放缓,需要应对更多的不良贷款。的暴利时代已经终结。 /201309/257215

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