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楼主:咨询常识 时间:2019年11月21日 19:00:45 点击:0 回复:0
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Until about a decade ago, I attended an annual conference at which we discussed the future of Europe. We always split into two groups: one focused on foreign policy, one on economics. Each group nominated a rapporteur whose job it was to relay the conclusions of the group to the final plenary. Everyone listened politely.直到大概10年前,我一直在参加一个讨论欧洲未来的年会。我们总是分成两组:一组关注外交政策,另一组关注经济。每个组指定一个报告人,在最后的全体会议上传达该组的结论。大家都礼貌听取报告。The separation of politics and economics is in Europe’s DNA. The monetary union is, more or less, a collection of small, open economies, and behaves accordingly. Members are more interested in raising their competitiveness against the rest of the world than in using economic instruments to exert influence. To this day, the worlds of foreign and economic policy communicate largely through rapporteurs. In the US, it is perfectly normal for foreign policy think-tanks to have big economics departments. European think-tanks mainly do one or the other.政治和经济是两回事——这个观念深入欧洲的基因。货币联盟或多或少由一组规模较小的开放经济体组成,其行为与之相称。比起利用经济工具施加影响,成员国更感兴趣的是提高自己相对于世界其他国家的竞争力。直至今日,欧洲外交政策界和经济政策界主要还是通过“报告人”来相互沟通。在美国,外交政策智库往往拥有规模较大的经济部门。而欧洲的智库则主要专注于单一的领域,要么外交政策,要么经济政策。This separation leads us to downplay the political consequences of long-term economic weakness. Would Russian President Vladimir Putin have acted so ruthlessly in eastern Ukraine if the eurozone had quickly overcome the crisis and begun to lay the foundations for a fiscal and political union? Would we have the strong separatist movements we see today in various member states? Would opinion polls be telling us that Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right Front National, stands a real chance of becoming the next French president? Would an anti-euro party have dislodged the venerable Free Democrats as the party of choice for Germany’s liberal bourgeoisie?政经分离使我们低估了长期经济疲弱带来的政治后果。当初如果欧元区迅速克危机,并开始为财政和政治联盟打下基础,俄罗斯总统弗拉基米#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)还会在乌克兰东部事务上表现得如此无所顾忌吗?我们在多个成员国内看到的势头强劲的分裂运动还会出现吗?民意调查还会告诉我们极右翼的国民阵National Front)党魁马琳#8226;勒庞(Marine Le Pen)有望成为下一任法国总统吗?反欧元政党还会取代备受尊敬的德国自由民主Free Democrats),成为德国自由主义资产阶级的的首选政党吗?I know several policy makers who feel a deep sense of foreboding about the present situation which I share yet feel unable to do anything about it. Mario Draghi’s attempt to change the eurozone policy narrative in his speech at the central bankersgathering in Jackson Hole last month was an exception. The European Central Bank president was right to emphasise that we should look at the eurozone as a whole rather than obsessing about its constituent parts.我认识几个政策制定者,他们对当前的事态有强烈的预感(我有同感),却感到无能为力。马里奥#8226;德拉Mario Draghi)在上月杰克逊霍Jackson Hole)央行行长会议上的讲话中,试图改变欧元区政策叙述,但此举是个例外。欧洲央ECB)行长强调我们应该把欧元区看作一个整体,而不是过于关注其组成部分,他是正确的。It is only when you take a global view that you can spot what is wrong. From this vantage point, you can see a shortage in aggregate demand, and the danger that low inflation today will beget even lower inflation tomorrow. You notice that the mix of fiscal and monetary policies is wrong. And you also see that it is quite easy to draw up a stimulus programme as long as you do it at EU level. And from this position, you can clearly spot the potential of a monetary union as a political power.只有纵观全局,你才能发现哪里出了问题。从这个视角看,你可以看到总需求的匮乏,以及今天的低通胀带来明日更低通胀的危险。你会注意到,当前的财政政策和货币政策搭配是错误的。你还会看到,只要是在欧EU)层面上,制定一个刺激计划相当容易。而且,从这个视角看,你能够清楚看到欧洲货币联盟成为强大政治力量的潜力。But when you take the perspective of a national capital such as Berlin, you see none of that. A good reminder of the distance between the prevailing German consensus and Mr Draghi’s new pan-Europeanism came last week when, during the 2015 budget debate Wolfgang Sch#228;uble, finance minister, promised permanent fiscal surpluses. There is hardly a soul in the Bundestag who questions how permanent fiscal surpluses would fit in with the rest of the eurozone, let alone worrying about the geopolitical consequences.然而,当你从某个国家首都(比如柏林)的视角看,这一切你都看不到。上周,在进015年预算辩论时,德国财长沃尔夫#8226;朔伊布勒(Wolfgang Sch#228;uble)承诺德国将永远保持财政盈余状态,这很好地提醒了我们德国主流共识和德拉吉新近提出的泛欧洲主义之间的差距。德国永远保持财政盈余,欧元区其他成员国怎么办?几乎没有哪个德国联邦议院(Bundestag)的议员对此提出疑问,更不用说担忧地缘政治方面的影响了。来 /201409/329612The US launched more air strikes in northern Iraq on Sunday as western allies joined the effort to get aid to a religious minority population fleeing Islamist militants.美国周日在伊拉克北部进行更多空袭,同时西方盟友加入美国的行列,向逃避伊斯兰主义武装分子的宗教少数人群提供援助。US Central Command said the strikes by fighter jets and unmanned drones destroyed armed vehicles, including one that was firing on Kurdish forces in the approaches to the city of Irbil, and a mortar position.美国中央司令部(US Central Command,代号USCENTCOM)表示,由战斗机和无人机展开的空袭摧毁了多辆装甲车(其中一辆正在埃尔比勒城附近地区向库尔德武装开火)和一个迫击炮阵地。It was the fourth round of air strikes against militants by the US military since they were authorised by President Barack Obama.这是自美国总统巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)批准空中打击以来,美军第四轮针对武装分子的空袭。The UK has ruled out military intervention for now, but the RAF dropped tents, lights and water filters overnight on Saturday.英国目前排除了军事干预的可能性,但英国皇家空RAF)上周六夜间向该地区空投了帐篷、照明设备和滤水器等物资。The French foreign minister Laurent Fabius visited Baghdad and Irbil to supervise aid delivery, while Tony Abbott, Australian prime minister, said his government was discussing participation in future airdrops with the US.法国外长洛朗#8226;法比尤斯(Laurent Fabius)访问了巴格达和埃尔比勒,以监督援助物资的送达情况,澳大利亚总理托尼#8226;阿Tony Abbott)表示,澳大利亚政府正讨论未来与美国一起进行物资空投。An estimated 40,000 Iraqi Yazidis, a Kurdish-speaking minority, have fled to the top of Sinjar Mountain in a barren stretch of northern Iraq, seeking protection from the forces of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, known as Isis.据估计,万名说库尔德语的亚齐Yazidi)宗教少数派成员逃到伊拉克北部荒芜的辛贾尔山(Sinjar Mountain)山顶,以逃避“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant,简称Isis)武装的攻击。Washington’s failure to arm the Syrian rebels contributed directly to the rapid rise of the Islamic militants now taking over large swaths of northern Iraq, according to Hillary Clinton, the former US secretary of state.美国前国务卿希拉#8226;克林Hillary Clinton)表示,美国未能武装叙利亚叛军,直接导致伊斯兰主义武装分子的迅速壮大,如今他们正夺取伊拉克北部大片地区。“I know that the failure to help build up a credible fighting force of the people who were the originators of the protests against (Syrian President Bashar al-Assad) there were Islamists, there were secularists, there was everything in the middle left a big vacuum, which the jihadists have now filled,Mrs Clinton said.希拉里表示:“我知道,美国未能帮助那些最初反对(叙利亚总统巴沙#8226;阿萨Bashar al-Assad))的人员——其中包括伊斯兰主义者、世俗主义者等等各种力量——组建一可靠的战斗部队,这留下了一个巨大真空,而这个真空现在已由伊斯兰圣战组织填补。”In an interview conducted before President Barack Obama ordered air strikes on Thursday, Mrs Clinton did not entirely blame Washington’s decision to stay out of Syria for the advance of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, known as Isis.希拉里在奥巴马上周四下令空袭之前接受的采访中,并未将Isis的崛起完全归咎于华盛顿不插手叙利亚事务的决定。But her comments in an interview with The Atlantic accentuate her divisions with Mr Obama at a time when the president is trying to fend off criticism that he has been too reluctant to involve the US in Syria and Iraq.但她在接受《大西洋The Atlantic)月刊采访时的言论强调了她与奥巴马的分歧,目前奥巴马正试图抵御外界对他的批评:即他过于不情愿让美国插手叙利亚和伊拉克事务。Mrs Clinton’s support for arming the Syrian rebels and Mr Obama’s rejection of such a policy has been well documented, including in her recent book on her years as secretary of state.希拉里对于武装叙利亚叛军的持(以及奥巴马拒绝这种政策)是有据可查的,她在最近一本回顾她担任国务卿经历的著作中也谈到了这点。来 /201408/320679The Organisation for Economic Co- operation and Development is a body that frequently feels as cumbersome as its name. It contains an eclectic mix of data collection, research and economic forecasting, and serves as a forum for international policy making.经济合作与发展组OECD)经常给人的感觉是,它就像自己的名称一样笨拙。它的职能繁多,包括数据收集、研究与经济预测,以及充当一个国际政策制定论坛。Much of its work is valuable, some elements more than others. Yet it requires renewed impetus. The OECD needs not just to increase its impact but to bring more emerging market governments into what was set up as and still feels like a club of rich countries.经合组织的大部分工作是有价值的,有些工作比另一些更有价值。不过,该机构需要注入新动力。它需要的不仅仅是提升自身影响力,而是要接纳更多新兴市场政府——它在建立之初就像一个富国俱乐部,现在仍给人这种感觉。Angel Gurría, the former Mexican finance minister and current OECD secretary-general, is in his second term of office, which expires next year. Although the institute has made some important progress recently, it needs new blood to speed up its development. The OECD needs a leader with both the intellectual firepower to lead policy debates and the political heft to broker international deals over policy with sensitive implications for its members.墨西哥前财长、经合组织现秘书长安赫尔#8226;古里Angel Gurría)目前处于第二任期,他的任期将于明年结束。尽管近年来该机构取得了一些重要进步,但它需要注入新鲜血液来加快自身发展。经合组织需要这样一位领导人:他不但要具有引导政策辩论的智慧,而且要有政治份量,能在对成员国产生敏感影响的政策方面促成国际协议。Some of what the OECD does in particular macroeconomic analysis and forecasting duplicates work done elsewhere, such as the International Monetary Fund. Its research capability really adds value by collecting and analysing micro data on a host of different issues health systems, development aid, labour market institutions and others.经合组织的部分工作——尤其是宏观经济分析和预测——与国际货币基金组织(IMF)等其他机构的工作有所重合。经合组织的研究能力确实增加了价值——收集并分析有关大量不同问题(如卫生保健制度、发展援助、劳动力市场制度等)的微观数据。These numbers and analysis can inform pivotal debate. For example, while the OECD cannot supplant the IMF in setting conditions for bailouts, having a second opinion over the structural reform demanded of countries such as Greece is a valuable role.这些数据和分析可以为关键辩论提供有价值的信息。例如,尽管经合组织不能在设定纾困条件方面取代IMF,但在希腊等国必须实行什么结构性改革的问题上提出不同观点,也是在发挥有价值的作用。In the case of development aid, OECD data collection and analysis also form the basis for improving the quality of assistance, such as reforming damaging “tied aidrules that compel recipients to spend the money on exports from the donor country.在开发援助方面,经合组织的数据收集与分析也为提高援助质量打下了基础,比如改革具有危害性的“限制性援助”规则——这些规则强迫援助接受方必须用援助款购买援助提供方的出口产品。来 /201504/371238For the avoidance of doubt, of course the Iraq of 2014 bears, in part, the imprint of the removal of Saddam Hussein 11 years ago. To say otherwise, as a recent editorial in this newspaper implies that I do, would be absurd.首先要声明,2014年的伊拉克当然带1年前推翻萨达#8226;侯赛Saddam Hussein)所留下的印记。否认这一点是荒谬的,虽然《金融时报》最近一篇社论就暗指我否定这种观点。However, there are two important points that must also be recognised.不过,人们也必须抓住两个重点。We cannot ignore the fact that Isis, the jihadist group advancing across Iraq, rebuilt itself and organised the Iraq operation from the chaos in Syria. Isis and other al-Qaeda-type groups in Iraq were flat on their back four years ago, having been comprehensively beaten by a combination of US and UK forces and Sunni tribes. The civil war in Syria allowed them to get back on their feet. So the first point is that non-intervention is also a decision with consequences. In the case of Syria those consequences have been dire, and as security chiefs in the UK and Europe are warning, they pose a real threat to our security.我们不能忽视一个事实,正在伊拉克攻城掠地的圣战组织“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant,简称Isis)是借叙利亚骚乱东山再起,组织起伊拉克作战行动的年前,英美部队和逊尼派部落合力将Isis及伊拉克境内其他基地式组织全面击溃。这些势力本已倒下,叙利亚内战又让他们站了起来。因此第一个重点是,不干涉政策也会带来种种后果。就叙利亚冲突而言,这些后果是可怕的,而且正如英国和欧洲安全部门的负责人们所警告的,它们对我们的安全构成切实威胁。Second, no analysis of the Middle East today makes sense unless we examine the impact of the Arab revolutions overturning the old regimes. It is odd to argue that revolution would not have come to Iraq. And surely Saddam Hussein’s response would have been more like that of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, than that of Hosni Mubarak. Whatever decision had been taken in 2003, in 2014 we would be facing a major challenge.第二个重点是,只有仔细研究颠覆了旧政权的阿拉伯革命所带来的影响,分析当今中东局势才有意义。认为革命不会在伊拉克发生是匪夷所思的。而且萨达#8226;侯赛因的反应肯定更像叙利亚总统巴沙#8226;阿萨Bashar al-Assad),而不是胡斯尼#8226;穆巴拉克(Hosni Mubarak)。不管我们在2003年作过什么决策,2014年我们都会面对一个重大挑战。There is a tendency to write of the Saddam Hussein time in Iraq as if he were a force for stability and peace. Just to remind ourselves: he began the Iraq-Iran war in which there were more than 1m casualties, many dying from chemical weapons, something which then played a part in pushing Iran towards its nuclear programme; he invaded Kuwait; he used chemical weapons in a genocidal attack against the Kurds; he excluded the Shia majority; and he persecuted the Marsh Arabs. The region’s problems are the result of deep-seated issues that, with the removal of those regimes, have now come to the surface.现在出现了一种倾向,在写到萨达#8226;侯赛因时代的伊拉克时,作者们将他描述得好像是维持稳定与和平的一股力量。我只想提醒大家:是他发动了两伊战争,这场战争导致上百万人伤亡,许多人死于化学武器,这是促使伊朗发展核计划的起因之一;他入侵了科威特;他在对库尔德人发动的种族清洗中使用化学武器,他镇压人口占多数的什叶派;他还迫害“沼泽阿拉伯人Marsh Arabs)。当今中东局势是一些深层问题导致的,随着旧政权被推翻,所有问题也浮上水面。That is the point I am making. I am not seeking to persuade people about the decision in 2003. I am trying to convince them that the fundamental challenge is not the product of that decision or indeed the decision in Syria. It is a challenge of immense complexity that has not originated in anything we have done since this challenge burst fully on to our consciousness after the attacks of September 11 2001. Its origin lies in the toxic mix of bad politics and bad religion that is not confined to Iraq or Syria but is sp across not just the Middle East but also the world.这就是我想表达的观点。我不是在说人们持我们在2003年作出的决策。我是在努力让大家明白,当前的根本挑战并不是当时的决策所引发的,甚至也不是后来对叙利亚的决策所引发的。这是一个带有巨大复杂性的挑战0011日袭击事件发生后我们充分意识到了这一挑战的存在,它的产生绝不是因为我们在这一事件后所采取的任何措斀?其源头是糟糕的政治与糟糕的宗教所构成的有毒混合体,这一混合体并不局限于伊拉克或叙利亚,它不但蔓延到中东,还会扩散到全世界。The reason we got into such difficulty in Iraq, as in Afghanistan, was precisely because once the dictatorship was removed, extremist Islamist forces then made progress extraordinarily difficult. That is their hideous impact the world over. The fundamental challenge today arises not from the decisions of 2003 or those of 2014. It is the challenge of Islamist extremism and it is global.我们之所以在伊拉克遇到这样的困难,就像在阿富汗一样,正是因为一旦独裁政府被推翻,伊斯兰极端势力就会跳出来,让局面变得异常棘手,难以取得进展。这是他们对全世界的可怕影响。今日的根本挑战并不源于2003年的决策014年的决策。这是伊斯兰极端主义的挑战,而且是全球性的。It is a challenge we cannot avoid. Its outcome will dramatically affect our own security. We may be war weary and want to disengage but the people we are fighting do not share that weariness. Leave aside Iraq or Syria; look at Pakistan today. It has powerful institutions; it has a functioning democracy. Yet be in no doubt, the struggle it is waging is existential. Nigeria was two decades ago a model of religious tolerance. Today it is on the rack of extremism. Even in western societies, there are tensions that are real and dangerous.我们无法逃避这一挑战。其后果将大大影响我们的安全。我们或许厌倦了战争,想要从中脱离,但我们的斗争对手没感到疲倦。且不谈伊拉克或叙利亚,看看今日的巴基斯坦。它拥有强大的机构,民主体制也运行良奀?然而毫无疑问,它仍在进行关乎生死存亡的斗争0年前尼日利亚曾是宗教宽容的典范,如今它却深受极端主义的危害。即使在西方社会,这种紧张也真实存在,且十分危险。The bad news is that this issue is not going away. That is why I am speaking about it. Since leaving office I have spent a large part of my time studying it and through my foundation trying to counter it.坏消息是这一问题不会消失。这也是我谈论此事的原因。自从离任后,我大部分时间都在研究这一问题,并通过我的基金会努力化解这一问题。Short term, we have to do what we can to rescue the situation in Iraq and Syria. In Iraq, without inclusive government this will be hard to do. The US is right in demanding political change as the price of its engagement. In Syria, an outright win for either side is no longer sensible; the majority of Syrians just want the torment to end.短期来看,我们必须尽一切努力挽回伊拉克和叙利亚的局势。在伊拉克,不建立一个包容的政府将很难达成此目的。作为介入的条件,美国要求伊方推行政治变革是正确的。而在叙利亚,任意一方都不太可能获得绝对胜利;绝大部分叙利亚人只想结束苦难历程。Long term, we have to have the right mixture of soft and hard power responses, which fights this extremism wherever it is conducting its terror campaigns. We must deal with the root cause of the problem which lies in the formal and informal systems that educate young people in a closed-minded approach to religion and culture.长期来看,我们必须恰当地结合运用软实力与硬实力,无论极端势力在何地展开恐怖活动,都要与之斗争。我们必须从根源入手解决问题,而问题的根源就在于那些培养年轻人形成保守的宗教和文化观念的正规与非正规体制。The good news is that this extremism does not represent the majority of Muslims. As the recent elections in both Iraq and Afghanistan show, where despite threats, violence and terror, people came out to vote in their millions. These people want to be free: free of dictators and free of terror. We should help them. It is in our interests that they succeed.好消息是这种极端主义并不代表绝大多数穆斯林。从伊拉克与阿富汗最近举行的选举即可看出,虽然面对威胁、暴力和恐怖,还是有数百万人来投票。这些人想要自由,他们想摆脱独裁者,摆脱恐怖。我们应该帮助他们。他们的成功符合我们的利益。来 /201406/308362

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