时间:2019年11月12日 17:00:57

The Chinese started to refer to the South China Sea as a core interest alongside Taiwan and Tibet in other words, a subject on which there could be no flexibility.在对话中,中方代表将南中国海与台湾、西藏一道列为核心利益——换句话说,这是一个不容商榷的话题。They warned that China would not tolerate outside interference, she wrote. On the flight home from Beijing, I took stock with my team. 他们警告称,中国不会容忍外来干涉,她写道,从北京飞回国途中,我与我的团队慎重地分析了形势。I thought China had overplayed its hand.我认为中国高估了自己的实力。The administration decided to start calling out Beijing over its actions in the South China Sea. 美国政府决定开始挑战中国在南中国海的行为。Jeff Bader, then Asia director at the National Security Council, and former assistant secretary of state Kurt Campbell prepared the ground before the Hanoi meeting by briefing governments that harboured complaints about the Chinese. 时任国家安全委员会亚洲事务主管杰#8226;贝德(Jeff Bader)与前助理国务卿库尔特#8226;坎贝Kurt Campbell)为河内会议召开做足准备,向对中方抱有不满的政府知会美方立场。Over the past few years, the US has expanded security co-operation with Vietnam and the Philippines, both of which are involved in territorial disputes with China, and backed a court case brought by the Philippines. 过去几年中,美国扩大了与越南、菲律宾的安全合作(两国都与中国存在领土争端),并持菲律宾针对中国提出的一起诉讼案。An international tribunal ruled in July that many of China’s claims in the South China Sea were unlawful.今年7月,一家国际仲裁庭裁定中国在南中国海的多项主张都为非法。For all their occasional disagreements on the Middle East, Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton were much more aligned when it came to Asia. 虽然在中东问题上偶有分歧,但涉及亚洲问题时,奥巴马和希拉里的看法要一致得多。Indeed, the biggest competition within the administration was over who should take credit for the strategy the White House or the state department not over its ideas.实际上,政府内部争得最厉害的不是围绕这一战略的思想,而是谁是这一战略的功臣,白宫还是国务院?There were times when Tom Donilon [a former national security adviser] thought she was too tough on China, or Jeff Bader. 有时,(前国家安全顾问)汤姆#8226;多尼Tom Donilon)认为她对中国太过强硬,杰#8226;贝德也会这么想。But not Obama, says one former senior official. He never really had any romantic attachment to the idea that we need to always have smooth Sino-US relations.但奥巴马不,一位前美国高级官员表示,他从来没有不切实际地抱着我们需要一直保持平稳的中美关系的想法。The one exception was over the case of Chen Guangcheng, the blind activist who took refuge in the US embassy in Beijing in 2012 and who after several days of negotiations while Mrs Clinton was in Beijing for a summit eventually received asylum in the US. 陈光诚事件是一个例外,这位盲人维权012年进入北京美国驻华大使馆寻求庇护——当时希拉里正在北京参加一个峰会——经过几天的谈判,陈光诚最终得以到美国避难。According to senior officials, Mr Obama was highly critical of the state department’s decision to let Mr Chen into the US embassy.据美国高官称,奥巴马严厉批评了国务院让陈光诚进入美国大使馆的决定。Along with the Hanoi meeting, the stand-off over Mr Chen was another piece of evidence for those in Beijing who believe Mrs Clinton to be a relatively hardline voice about China, both on security issues and human rights. 除了河内会议,中美在陈光诚事件上的僵持也使得北京一些人士更加相信希拉里在安全和人权问题上代表着对华相对强硬的声音。Indeed, Chinese suspicions about Mrs Clinton date back to the 1995 World Conference on Women in Beijing, when she insisted that women’s rights are human rights and human rights are women’s rights remarks that were not broadcast in China.事实上,中国方面对希拉里的怀疑可以追溯至1995年在北京召开的世界妇女大World Conference on Women),当时她坚称妇女权利即人权,人权即妇女权利——这些言论未能在中国播出。As a result, many analysts in China would expect a prospective Clinton administration to be more willing to confront Beijing. 因此,中国许多分析人士预计,有望入主白宫的希拉里将更愿意与北京方面对抗。She has always been hard on China since her first visit in 1995, says Chu Shulong, an international relations expert at Tsinghua University. That’s her style.995年首次访问中国以来,她一直对中国保持强硬态度,清华大Tsinghua University)国际关系专家楚树龙说,这是她的风格。Shi Yinhong, another international relations expert at Renmin University, agrees: Hillary will be tougher on China than Obama.来自人民大学的另外一位国际关系专家时殷弘同意这种观点,他说:在对华态度上,希拉里将会比奥巴马更加强硬。From the start, the decision to push back against China in the South China Sea and the increasing US presence in the region have won strong, bipartisan support in Washington, where there are few disagreements with the basic ideas of the pivot. 在南中国海对抗中国并扩大美国在亚太地区存在的决定从一开始就在华盛顿得到两党的大力持——华盛顿在转向亚洲的基本战略思想上鲜有不同意见。Within the administration, the only real debate has been about the pace of US naval operations in contested areas in the South China Sea.在奥巴马政府内部,真正的辩论只围绕着美国海军在南中国海争议海域的行动步伐。However the pivot has not been without its critics. 然而,也并非没有人批评转向亚洲战略。Hugh White, a former Australian defence official and an influential observer on Asia, believes that the US is not prepared for the huge risks and costs that would be required to actually shift China’s strategy.澳大利亚原国防部官员、颇具影响力的亚洲问题观察家#8226;怀Hugh White)认为,美国没有准备好应对切实转变对华策略所必然带来的巨大风险和成本。The pivot’s architects assumed that a merely symbolic reassertion of US power and resolve would be enough to make China back off, he argues. 他辩称:‘转向亚洲’战略的设计者以为,只要象征性地彰显美国实力和决心就足以让中国退让。China’s assertive posture in the East and South China Sea today is strong evidence that they were wrong.中国如今在东中国海和南中国海上摆出的强硬姿态明显表明,这种想法是错误的。Flawed deal?有缺陷的TPP?So how would President Clinton act in Asia? For all her input in defining the Obama administration’s strategy to the region, during the election campaign she has turned against one of its central planks, the 12-nation trade deal known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. (China is not involved in TPP.)那么,希拉里总统将会在亚洲怎么做?尽管希拉里参与制定了奥巴马政府的亚太战略,但在选战期间,她转变态度反对该战略的核心内容之一,也就是包括12个成员国家(不含中国)的《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定TPP)。Should Mrs Clinton win the election, the ideal situation for her would be for Congress to approve the trade deal before her inauguration. 如果希拉里赢得选举,对她来说,理想的情况将是国会在她宣誓就职前批准TPP。But if that does not happen, she would face the difficult choice of whether to reopen an agreement which she has described as central to American influence in the region, but which she now believes to be flawed in practice. 但如果国会没有批准TPP,她就会面临是否重启该协议的艰难抉择——她曾说TPP对美国在亚太地区的影响力至关重要,但后来又认为该协议在实践中存在缺陷。One former US official who worked closely with the Obama administration on China argues that Mrs Clinton would push more strongly on commercial issues and would be far less patient with the restrictions Beijing places on doing business in its own market.一位曾密切参与奥巴马政府中国事务的美国前官员表示,希拉里将会在商业问题上施加更大压力,也更加对中国政府对在华外资企业施加的限制没有耐心。I don’t think she’ll be willing to park the competitiveness agenda as it relates to China to get, say, a global climate deal, he adds. 他补充称:我不认为她会愿意为了签署什么协议——比如说全球气候协议——而搁置与中国相关的竞争力议程。President Obama wanted China’s help on the Iran deal, he wanted the climate deal and he was willing to shelve other more nettlesome issues in order to get them.奥巴马总统在伊朗协议上希望得到中国协助,他也希望签署气候协议,他就愿意为了签署这些协议而搁置其他更棘手的问题。The sharpest dilemma would be on the South China Sea. 最棘手的将是南中国海问题。The approach Mrs Clinton started to outline in Hanoi in 2010 was to pressure China to back away from efforts to dominate the region, by demonstrating the regional and US opposition. 希拉010年在河内概述的策略是通过展示亚太各国和美国的反对,从而迫使中国放弃主导该地区的努力。Instead, Beijing has plunged ahead full speed, dramatically increasing over the past three years its efforts to build artificial islands that might one day serve as military bases.结果是,北京方面全力以赴,在过去3年大举建设有朝一日可以用作军事基地的人造岛屿。Among Mrs Clinton’s Asia advisers, the approach being debated is a slightly stepped-up version of the Obama pivot a series of steps aimed at forging a deeper network of allies and partners that can act as a deterrent to China and reinforce US ideas about trade and freedom of navigation.希拉里的亚洲事务顾问们正在辩论的策略比奥巴马的转向亚洲略有强化,即一系列旨在打造更深层次的盟友和合作伙伴网络的举措,它们可以威慑中国,并强化美国提出的关于贸易和航行自由的观点。The sorts of proposals being discussed include having another aircraft carrier permanently stationed in the region; expanding missile defence in South Korea; increased deployments to the island of Guam; and sending more planes and ships to the Philippines.正在讨论的建议包括让另一艘航空母舰永久驻扎在亚太地区;扩大韩国的导弹防御系统;增加关岛军力部署,以及向菲律宾派遣更多的飞机和军舰。They sound like small, incremental steps, but over time they will add up into a regional framework that can influence China’s rise, says one former official advising the Clinton campaign. 一位为希拉里竞选团队提供建议的前官员表示:这些听起来像是渐进的小步骤,但随着时间推移,它们将累积为可能影响中国崛起的地区框架。The Clinton team is still betting, in effect, that China has overplayed its hand.希拉里团队实际上仍在押注中国高估了自己的实力。来 /201609/465878

文章编辑: 快问对话